Forest cover and level of protection influence the island-wide distribution of an apex carnivore and umbrella species, the Sri Lankan leopard (Panthera pardus kotiya)

Apex predators fulfil potentially vital ecological roles. Typically wide-ranging and charismatic, they can also be useful surrogates for biodiversity preservation, making their targeted conservation imperative. The Sri Lankan leopard (Panthera pardus kotiya), an endangered, endemic sub-species, is the island’s apex predator. Of potential keystone importance, this carnivore also fulfills “umbrella” and “flagship” criterion and is of high ecological and existence value. Apex predator conservation requires identifying factors underlying distribution, so we used multi-scale maximum entropy modelling with sampling bias correction to investigate a broad suite of relevant ecological, climatic and anthropogenic factors in order to identify potentially suitable leopard habitat. Presence locations were determined from 15 years of surveys, observations and verified reports. The best bias correction procedure and scale were uncertain, so we employed a novel method of using information from all models across analyses to determine top models and identify influential variables. Leopard presence was most strongly linked to the landscape proportion encompassed by Protected Areas strictly limiting human presence, with more porous Protected Areas less influential. All three forest composition and configuration metrics investigated (area weighted mean patch size, patch density and forest connectivity) were influential, with increased patch size and higher connectivity predicting better habitat suitability for leopards. Habitat suitability was also better where cropland extent and urban patch size were small. In summary, ground-level protection and natural forest extent and connectivity are of profound importance to Sri Lankan leopard distribution and are key factors in ensuring the ecological integrity of the island’s faunal assemblages.