French Exit, Russian Entry: What’s Next for Nigeria’s Role in ECOWAS?

Nigeria, a regional leader, is being forced to rethink its position due to the shifting balance of power in West Africa. The withdrawal of French troops, the emergence of the Alliance of Sahel States (AES), and the expansion of Russian influence have drastically altered the region’s power structure. As chair of ECOWAS, Abuja faces the Herculean challenge of leading a more divided West Africa, where security interests and economic agendas increasingly converge. This paper examines Russia’s growing influence in the Sahel region and its potential impact on Nigeria’s foreign policy. Drawing on qualitative research that includes policy analysis and in-depth interviews with Nigerian pundits, the authors assess Abuja’s responses to these developments. By highlighting the significance of Russia’s involvement, the paper offers a fresh perspective on Nigeria’s leadership within ECOWAS and the evolving nature of its foreign policy amid the region’s changing security and economic landscape. The research seeks to determine whether Nigeria can reassert itself amid Russia’s growing presence and the formation of the AES and leverage regional initiatives such as the Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline to advance its strategic interests.