From Global to Local and from Local to Global: Examples of Event Scenarios in Europe

This chapter logically follows the previous one. After having sketched some visions of future potential hazards and vulnerability patterns for Europe, here more specific event scenarios are developed. An attempt to combine hazards, exposure and vulnerabilities to obtain damage estimates is thought to be possible only with respect to individual threats, or to individual events, whose impacts can be evaluated across sectors of economy and society. According to the Scenario project this can be considered an important advancement in research with respect to what has been made up to now: current available risk assessments, indeed, generally consist of hazard assessments, with scarce or no consideration of vulnerability of exposed systems. Coherently with what has been stated in Chapter 3, not only direct physical losses have to be accounted for, but also indirect and secondary damages due to systemic links among elements or sectors, as well as the effects on physical assets of otherwise intangible organisational, social and institutional factors.