Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change

Erschienen in:

01.08.2024 | Original Article

From physical climate storylines to environmental risk scenarios for adaptation in the Pilcomayo Basin, central South America

verfasst von: Guillermo Germán Joosten, Julia Mindlin, Jonas Østergaard Nielsen, Luis María de la Cruz, Marina Sardi, Claudia Valeggia

Erschienen in: Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change | Ausgabe 6/2024

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Abstract

Der Artikel präsentiert eine Fallstudie aus dem Pilcomayo-Flussbecken in Zentralsüdamerika, die sich auf die Nutzung physikalischer Klimaszenarien konzentriert, um plausible Zukunftsszenarien für die Anpassung an den Klimawandel zu entwickeln. Die Forschung kombiniert ökologisches und lokales Wissen aus Interviews und Feldarbeiten mit regionalen Klimaprojektionen und unterstreicht die Bedeutung des Verständnisses lokaler Wahrnehmungen von Klimarisiken. Die Studie identifiziert drei qualitativ unterschiedliche Handlungsstränge, die auf Veränderungen von Niederschlag und Temperatur beruhen, und erzählt plausible Umgebungsszenarien für jede Handlungsstränge. Dieser interdisziplinäre Ansatz bietet eine neuartige Methode, um lokale Gemeinschaften über potenzielle Klimaauswirkungen zu informieren und Anpassungsstrategien zu erleichtern. Die Ergebnisse liefern Einblicke in das komplexe Zusammenspiel zwischen Klimawandel und lokalen Umweltbelangen und unterstreichen die Notwendigkeit integrierter Ansätze, die sowohl Natur- als auch Sozialwissenschaften berücksichtigen.

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On the one hand, climate attribution analyses study how much climate change contributed to the occurrence of past events. On the other hand, projections are climate forecasts. In this work, we mainly deal with projections.

From now on in this work, the term storyline refers only to the physical climate storylines used for climate change projections. Also, storylines can be used both in attribution and projection analyses and most of our discussion is valid for both.

Atmospheric rivers are narrow atmospheric circulation routes that transport a substantial fraction of the moisture from tropical or extratropical latitudes to the poles. When these high moisture content air masses reach a topographic barrier such as a mountain range, the air rises and cools, forming clouds and precipitation (Hegdahl et al. 2020).

By etic approach, we refer to the fact that the categorizations present in the work correspond to the researchers' own categories and criteria.

In regions where our statistical model projects decreases below the present climatology, we interpret the projection as desertification.

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Titel: From physical climate storylines to environmental risk scenarios for adaptation in the Pilcomayo Basin, central South America
verfasst von: Guillermo Germán Joosten
Julia Mindlin
Jonas Østergaard Nielsen
Luis María de la Cruz
Marina Sardi
Claudia Valeggia
Publikationsdatum: 01.08.2024
Verlag: Springer Netherlands
Erschienen in: Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change / Ausgabe 6/2024
Print ISSN: 1381-2386
Elektronische ISSN: 1573-1596
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11027-024-10160-2

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