And it is right—returning to the basics, logics and arithmetic (sets) in order to solve complex problems.
Chapter 1, in essence, is the theoretical basis of Risk management technologies. Here we describe components of Risk management technologies (RMT): logic and probabilities (LP) calculus, classes of LP-models of risk and efficiency, procedures classes, special software, samples of applications, the training course. LP-calculus contains more than twenty new positions. The classes of LP-models are: modeling, classification, efficiency, and forecasting. Procedures are: building models, identification of models, analysis, management and risk prediction, special logical software. We describe 30 applications. The training course is designed for 2 semesters, has 16 laboratory works on the PC.
We describe: the LP-risk model for solving difficult problems with connection AND, OR, NOT, data structure and statistical database, events-parameters and events-gradations in risk models, the transition from databases to knowledge bases, types of variables in LP-risk models, types of events in the tabular knowledge base, incompatible events groups, knowledge bases and systems of L-equations, the connections of LP-risk models of different classes. We formulate the problems of development and research of RMT.