Futures Thinking and Organizational Policy

This chapter reviews the evolution of futures thinking within organizations, beginning with strategic planning and followed by the use of foresight methodologies. The impact of convergent/divergent thinking and sensemaking as related to strategic and corporate foresight is also discussed, as well as, emerging new roles for employees, managers, and the organization itself in support of successful foresight efforts. Finally, a number of barriers exist which may interfere with an organization’s evolution from use of foresight to full futures thinking capability. The closing section of this chapter describes these potential constraints.

The purpose of this case study is to describe Tesla’s management strategies, organizational policies, and foresight approaches used to plan and implement a pragmatic strategy for the future mass production of electric vehicles (EVs) at affordable prices. The challenges posed by increasing global instability in the automotive business, changing technology, and alarming increase of carbon dioxide emissions, all heightened the immediate need for change from traditional treatment of automotive practices to something innovative, yet executable. The Tesla organization has developed an ambitious plan and strategy in response to these challenges through long-range battery technology that will enable them to complete production of high volume and low-cost electric cars with no fumes, noise, or dirt to millions.

Given the longtime horizons of investments and strategic decisions among Dutch infrastructure providers, the future is a very relevant topic to all of them. The purpose of this chapter is to describe how these organizations practice foresight. It turns out that the way these organizations carry out foresight can vary. Some organizations use scenario thinking, others rely more on quantitative methods for data analysis. Some start their foresight process by analyzing problems, while others are more vision-driven. External development on the future of infrastructures is significant, and all infrastructure providers have increased their focus on the relationship between their business and societal context. In addition to their foresight activities, infrastructure providers also prepare themselves for uncertain futures by making their organization more flexible, which has a positive impact on their strategic adaptivity.

Novel business models and increasing innovation speed push global competition in technology-driven markets. Especially, small- and medium-sized family firms struggle with allocating resources in order to cope with volatile market conditions and high-frequency innovations. Foresight as early detection of environmental change has been proven efficient for preparing companies for the future. This chapter reports on a nine-month foresight program conducted with participants from several departments within STULZ, a family firm in the industry of heating, ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC). Findings from in-depth case-work and semi-structured interviews show that the foresight program encouraged innovative thinking among employees and gave space for creative exchange. In summary, STULZ employees identified 29 future scenarios, eight early warning signals as well as innovative projections for three novel products, four service proposals, and 15 processes. Also, the foresight program affected processes of change and established employees’ confidence in STULZ’s adaptability. The chapter adds insights on the significance of long-term management strategies, as well as, future-oriented organizational policy to sustain business success among the microcosm of a family firm.

At Swiss bank PostFinance (PF), foresight has been a key driver for strategic discussions and innovation in banking for decades. Today’s approach to foresight, as strategy development, has evolved over the past two decades, with the initial introduction of early warning management in 1998, a new strategy process in 2000, a contemporary foresight framework in 2005/2006 and a future-oriented, foresight embedded digital transformation strategy in 2016/2017. All efforts were or are designed to support PF’s ambition to become a digital powerhouse. PF’s foresight framework today includes all major components from environmental scanning, scenario-building, and action setting based on open conversations from scenario workshops. The key outcomes from corporate foresight are successful strategies via an established foresight framework through socially constructed planning practices, especially the network of future agents/trend scouts, and the foresight continuum which fosters debates and supports flexible decision-making.

The chapter presents a comparative study of two cases. Case A refers to strategic foresight implemented in a large private company from the fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) sector; in this instance, a producer of beverages. Case B portrays organizational foresight practices implemented in a scientific institution, which conducts applied research within manufacturing and maintenance fields. Both organizations are based in Poland and are of similar size. Both share the same motivation to uptake foresight as means of capturing technological change and supporting strategic investment decisions. It is the actual methodology of foresight, its outcomes and follow-up activities that differ to a great extent in the two entities. The reason to compare such diverse case studies of organizational foresight is to share valuable lessons learned, with a view to point out factors that do or do not allow an organization to take full advantage of internal foresight processes.

There are many models of foresight program delivery. This chapter looks at how a University Foresight program was used to help an aviation company become more innovative. In Russia, much foresight activity (including research, teaching, projects, consulting) is delivered by the Foresight center which is part of the Institute for Statistical Studies and Economics of Knowledge (ISSEK) at National Research University Higher School of Economics (HSE). The center is a designated Regional United Nations Industrial Organization (UNIDO) for technology management for Russia and the CIS. The case looks at how the HSE Foresight Center helped a Russian aviation company successfully implement an innovation strategy through a comprehensive foresight project. By use of multiple techniques including expert interviews, desk research, patent analysis, bibliometrics, trend analysis, wildcard analysis, roadmapping, and more, the HSE foresight center was able to provide recommendations in a broad range of areas including safety, energy efficiency, environmental impact, and the quality of onboard services. The roadmap described here, specifically, presents a detailed plan for the development and implementation of innovative technologies for the next 10 years. This plan contains both the company’s own developments, as well as, the adaptation of best solutions offered by third-party manufacturers. In addition, the HSE foresight center helped the client organization set up and institutionalize foresight-based innovation processes within the executive function.

This chapter analyzes the impact of corporate foresight by means of its circles of impression, from top management and outward at varying distances from the management board. The concept of circles of impression includes processes of communication, and the influence of this communication to impact change, and is demonstrated to be useful and possible to apply to a wide target class, including strategic and networked foresight efforts. The comparative study described in this chapter focuses on two organizations: an industrial for-profit company and a nonprofit non-governmental organization (NGO). Delivered at a critical time for large global enterprises, the study of foresight activities was carried out in complete independence, scoping by time to point of entry (PoE) and by general area, as provided by the stakeholder. The study covered four future trends, with one—robust artificial intelligence (AI)—reported on here to exemplify and detail the forms of reporting. In the introspective and critical analysis of this foresight work, the role of foresight validator is added to the three roles of corporate foresight known in the research literature: strategist, initiator, and opponent. As the concept of circles of impression is shown to generalize to both global corporate and global nonprofit organizations, a final discussion merges experiences with related conclusions and recommendations for ongoing studies.

This chapter describes a study that used the Delphi Technique to envision strategies that appear to ensure success for Sino-Foreign Universities in 2030. Transnational Education (TNE) partnerships in Mainland China have faced significant issues and their future is uncertain. The unprecedented speed of change in Mainland China’s higher education system made it imperative to conduct a study that looked beyond the nation’s 5-year planning system. The study involved the executive management of Sino-Foreign University partnerships, whose data informed the envisioning of scenarios. The scenarios suggest the importance of an internet and social media strategy which is a radical change considering the regulations for foreign online education in Mainland China. Furthermore, a societal involvement strategy recognizes a new role for Sino-Foreign University partnerships that will create greater competition among partnerships. This chapter shows that organizational policies jointly related to experimentation and accountability can sustain futures thinking within a centrally planned yet global higher-education system.

The future cannot be predicted to any useful degree as uncertainty rules. Indeed, uncertainty is a predominate characteristic of the twenty first century security environment and armed forces around the world continue to strive to understand and define how their national security policies fit within this paradigm. In this age of complexity, military planners often get caught in the trap of attempting to diminish uncertainty rather than learning how to function with it. So, in the face of such a complex and uncertain global security environment, where do military planners start? This chapter discusses a futures methodology that can provide capacity to systematically explore, create, and test both possible and desirable futures to improve military decisions. As a result of this project, the Canadian Army institutionalized futures thinking to help military strategists more effectively plan in the complex and uncertain global security environment.

This chapter examines the recent embedding of foresight techniques within the Florida and Ohio Army National Guard organizations’ strategic planning processes. Each state’s decision to move strategic planning in that direction was unique—as are their foresight methodologies and training. Furthermore, each is being recognized by their sector peers for its unique success story. The kind of foresight techniques and implementation methods—and the sustained organizational support for such—that supports anticipation amid rapid change, even working for massive organizations with profoundly rich organizational histories and cultures, are discussed in detail. For Florida, it was the inclusion of specific environmental scanning efforts, and for Ohio, it was the use of future scenarios. The two techniques are providing tremendous value to each organization by helping clarify their ambiguous and ever-evolving strategic environments, informing and safeguarding the relevance of their long-term strategic plans. Moreover, these new process efforts are not simply shaping the organizations’ strategic plans; perhaps more importantly, they are also shaping the cultures and mentalities of the next generation of the National Guard’s future-oriented leaders.

This case describes how a leader of a financial institution used systems thinking as a foresight tool to help survive global economic crisis during the Great Recession of 2008. Due to the leader’s systems thinking perspective, several behavioral themes emerged. Organizational policies were then developed to help institutionalize these behaviors. The outcome for the organization was successful response to an oncoming global economic catastrophe. Strategic management strategies, supporting futures thinking, ultimately guided and stabilized the organization throughout this economic crisis, effectively leading to future growth.

Headquartered in London, Aviva Plc is a British multinational firm offering a broad range of financial services in life insurance, general insurance and pensions. Aviva Plc employs over 28,000 people around the world, with a current customer base ~ 31 million globally. As a service sector employer, Aviva recognizes that success of the organization depends on developing and maintaining the wellbeing of a very diverse group of employees and customers. The purpose of this case chapter is to discuss the foresight methods adopted by Aviva to help align diverse contributions from employees with maximum service to customers, while increasing flexibility, capability and competitiveness in everchanging environments. This chapter will also assess the key factors and business efforts underlying the company’s long-term success, including a range of management strategies and organizational policies used by Aviva to sustain a competitive edge in the insurance industry’s global market.

California State University, East Bay (CSUEB) represents one of the most diverse campuses in the United States, and has started a number of programs in long term and futures thinking to celebrate diverse, alternative visions of the future. In the summer of 2016, for five weeks, multiple university stakeholders, including the University President, deans, faculty, staff and the university advancement team, engaged onsite in a futures design thinking process to envision a new Twenty first century commons space at the university. The ultimate goal was to transform and expand the university’s central library within the next ten years (by 2026) and for the next fifty years (to 2066). Six teams of stakeholders participated in forecasting, a human-centered design process shaping a twenty-first approach to education. In assessing this forecasting efforts, the following question was addressed: How did design futures thinking shape our vision of the new library and information commons space on the CSUEB campus? Although initial steps have been taken to realize the outcomes from this project, additional important work is needed to institutionalize full innovative changes.

This chapter highlights Mayo Clinic’s journey to accelerating diverse leader readiness through foresight and futures thinking. Workforce leadership diversity has a substantial impact on organizational economic, political, and cultural wellbeing. Research still places women in < 5% of CEO positions (Chira in New York Times, 2017; Kaiser and Wallace in Consulting Psychology Journal: Practice and Research 68:72, 2016), and suggests the inability to recruit and retain women and ethnic minorities in healthcare professions puts the future of academic medicine in jeopardy (cited by Murrell and South-Paul in Mentoring diverse leaders, Routledge, New York, NY, pp. 85–103, 2017). The challenge lies in sustainable strategies to close the gap and promote a culture where all levels of leadership are more inclusive of women and ethnic minorities (Johns 2013). Mayo Clinic discovered a dearth of preparation for leadership that mirrors the global society. These findings resulted in a targeted development program to ensure a diverse leadership talent pool is prepared to effectively lead with fortitude and impact through rapid global, technological, and environmental changes.

Faced with ambitious growth targets and a challenging global labor market, The Walt Disney Company turned to a field initiative, Strategic Foresight, to create a more adaptive, resilient and transformative organizational culture. Over the course of four years, Walt Disney International (a segment of the company) established a culture of future thinkers through a multi-phased change management effort. This effort included recurring learning and development programs based on the Natural Foresight® Framework, the establishment of regional Futures Teams across the globe, and a dedicated project management lead. As a result of the effort, the following three organizational outcomes were realized: (a) organizational processes have been updated to include Strategic Foresight; (b) revenue-leading futures intelligence has led to innovative new product offerings; and (c) success within the International division has inspired other segments within the organization to follow suit. Recognizing the importance of Strategic Foresight, international leadership has declared futures thinking to be one of the organization’s top leadership competencies.

The primary motivation to write this book stemmed from the desire to delve into the complexities of futures thinking and the relationships among myriad concepts and principles related to the process. This chapter reviews this effort, and summarizes discussions related to the roles of foresight (e.g., scenario-building) and organizational policy (i.e., to ensure accountability), as well as, the relationship between these concepts and successful future-oriented leadership in the field. Finally, review of the literature and findings from the case chapters presented in this book, resulted in the following three conclusions: (1) organizational policy represents the formal mechanism needed to translate data and foresight into sustainable action; (2) foresight methods and scenario-building reflect processes enhanced by increased skill in observation and interpretation of signals of change (and this skill encompasses understanding the source of the signal and type of related disruption most likely to impact the organization); and (3) the greater the alignment of organizational structure and function to processes and characteristics related to futures thinking, the higher the organizational capability maturity level for futures thinking (e.g., flattened organizational structures facilitate and support shared decision-making for flexible distribution of resources; and open access to information enhances the scenario-building of preferred and probable future outcomes).

Described in this chapter are supplemental materials for professional development. Three training activities are presented, including: (1) open-ended discussion questions for each case study, (2) assessment of organizational readiness for futures thinking, and (3) examination of organizational futures orientation (OFO), which is determined by the alignment of organizational structure and function to processes and characteristics related to futures thinking. Each experience is intended to help the reader increase their knowledge and skill for foresight and organizational policy to facilitate and sustain, respectively, futures thinking in companies and other institutions. These activities are designed to be customized to one’s own organization, and may be completed in any order (however, each experience builds upon previous learnings).