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Erschienen in:
2007 | OriginalPaper | Buchkapitel
General considerations on the operational forecasts of severe convective events: from medium to short range
verfasst von : Dario B. Giaiotti, Fulvio Stel
Erschienen in: Atmospheric Convection: Research and Operational Forecasting Aspects
Verlag: Springer Vienna
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In this lecture we will deal with the general aspects of an operational forecast of convective severe weather in the medium and short range, that is from 72
h
to 24
h
ahead the occurrence of the severe weather event. The attention will be focused on the information available to the forecaster, their reliability and their use. The role of the numerical model outputs generally available in the daily operational forecast activity are described and their limits are stressed. It is shown how the subjective contribution of the forecaster integrates the model outputs information. The main elements that characterize a severe weather occurrence are schematically described and their identification is explored by means of the useful information available at the medium and short range.