General considerations on the operational forecasts of severe convective events: from short range to nowcasting

In this lecture we deal with the general aspects of the convective severe weather forecast in the short range, that is from 24

h

ahead the occurrence of the event down to the threatening phenomena onset. When the forecast is very close to the event it relates to, lets say a few hours before, or it aims to track the event evolution in real time, the word nowcasting is used instead of forecast. The main elements relevant to issue a local severe weather forecast in the short range are here described, furthermore the information available for that purpose is analyzed with special attention to the limits and the constrains imposed by the operational forecasting activity. Some examples of environments prone to the severe weather onset and evolution are presented and discussed.