9. Global Tropical Cyclone Damages and Fatalities Under Climate Change: An Updated Assessment

Although it is well known that climate change will alter future tropical cyclone characteristics, there have been relatively few studies that have measured global impacts. This paper utilizes new insights about the damage caused by tropical cyclones from Bakkensen and Mendelsohn (J Assoc Env Res Econ 3:555–587, 2016) to update the original methodology of Mendelsohn et al. (Nat Clim Change 2:205–209, 2012). We find that future cyclone losses are very sensitive to both adaptation and development. Future development (higher income) is predicted to sharply reduce future fatalities. However, damage may take two distinct paths. If countries follow the United States and adapt very little, damage is predicted to increase proportionally with income, rising 400% over the century. However, if development follows the remaining OECD countries, which have done a lot of adaptation, future cyclone damage will only increase slightly.