Groundwater System Modelling and Sensitivity of Groundwater Level Prediction in Indo-Gangetic Alluvial Plains

The aquifer systems in the Indo-Gangetic alluvial river systems are recharged by rains and also by seepage from the irrigation canal commands. Groundwater resource is threatened due to rising water demand for advancement in the agricultural sector together with rapid industrialization. Utilization of groundwater at a rate greater than annual recharge constitutes unsustainable groundwater development. The problems of excessive groundwater extraction in the tail reaches of canal commands are common. In such areas, there is considerable potential for sustainable groundwater management through groundwater system modelling. Present work simulates the groundwater system in Sai–Gomti interfluve region which is a part of Indo-Gangetic alluvial plain in Uttar Pradesh, India. Groundwater simulation was carried out using Visual MODFLOW. The study area comprises mainly of agricultural land and is part of Sharda Sahayak Canal System in Uttar Pradesh. Visual MODFLOW was calibrated and validated for water level data available for 9 years (2005–2013). The effect of change in recharge rate and withdrawal rate is also investigated to predict the corresponding changes in water levels. Groundwater level was predicted beyond five years for future. Deterministic as well as fuzzy sensitivity analysis is performed to characterize uncertainty in predicted groundwater levels due to possible uncertainty in hydraulic conductivity and porosity.