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Über dieses Buch

This book constitutes the refereed proceedings of the 18th International Conference on Group Decision and Negotiation, GDN 2018, held in Nanjing, China, in June 2018.

The field of Group Decision and Negotiation focuses on decision processes with at least two participants and a common goal but conflicting individual goals. Research areas of Group Decision and Negotiation include electronic negotiations, experiments, the role of emotions in group decision and negotiations, preference elicitation and decision support for group decisions and negotiations, and conflict resolution principles.

The 15 full papers presented in this volume were carefully reviewed and selected from 143 submissions. They were organized in topical sections named: theoretical concepts of group decision and negotiation; decision support and behavior in group decision and negotiation; and applications of group decision and negotiations.

Inhaltsverzeichnis

Frontmatter

Correction to: A Multi-stakeholder Approach to Energy Transition Policy Formation in Jordan

The original version of this chapter contained an error in the third author’s name. The spelling of Nadejda Komendantova’s name was incorrect in the header of the paper. The author’s name has been corrected.
Mats Danielson, Love Ekenberg, Nadejda Komendantova

Theoretical Concepts of Group Decision and Negotiation

Frontmatter

Hesitant Fuzzy Linguistic Group Decision Making with Borda Rule

Abstract
Hesitant fuzzy linguistic term set is an efficient tool to represent human thinking in decision making process. Borda rule is a powerful approach to aggregate opinions of a group members and it has been extended to several versions. In this paper, we investigate the Borda rule in the hesitant fuzzy linguistic context from both broad and narrow perspectives which are based on the possibility degree and the score function of the hesitant fuzzy linguistic term set. Moreover, we take into account the confidence level of linguistic evaluations with a parameter being generated from the evaluations. Finally, a numerical example is given to illustrate the efficiency of the Borda rule in group decision making within hesitant fuzzy linguistic information.
Xiaomei Mi, Huchang Liao

A Multistage Risk Decision Making Method for Normal Cloud Model with Three Reference Points

Abstract
Decision making problems become more complicated due to the dynamically changing environment. Consequently, decision making methods with reference points are increasing. Reference points provide a good basis for decision makers. This paper proposes a multistage risk decision making method for normal cloud model considering three reference points. Firstly, the setting method of three reference points is proposed considering the dimensions of multistate, development and promotion. The value function is defined based on the characteristics of three reference points. Secondly, the aggregation methods for different prospect values are proposed with the preference coefficients, which are calculated by the synthetic degree of grey incidence. Thirdly, a two-stage weight optimization method is proposed to solve the attribute weights and stage weights based on the idea of minimax reference point optimization. Finally, a numerical example illustrates the feasibility and validity of the proposed method.
Wen Song, Jianjun Zhu

System Portfolio Selection Under Hesitant Fuzzy Information

Abstract
System portfolio selection faces multi-criteria and multi-objective problems, which lead the decision-makers to build a decision model. Otherwise, the system evaluation value is not clear and the multi-objective of the system is difficult to outweigh. To solve the problem, a value-risk ratio model with Hesitant Fuzzy Set (HFS) is used for portfolio selection. To be specific, in this model, the HFS is used to evaluate the value and risk of systems; and the portfolio value and portfolio risk are calculated with HFS operation. Meanwhile, the value-risk rate is applied to address the problem of multi-objective for system portfolio. Finally, one numerical example for system portfolio selection is given to illustrate the applicability of the proposed model.
Zhexuan Zhou, Xiangqian Xu, Yajie Dou, Yuejin Tan, Jiang Jiang

Decision Support and Behavior in Group Decision and Negotiation

Frontmatter

Representative Decision-Making and the Propensity to Use Round and Sharp Numbers in Preference Specification

Abstract
This paper analyzes the agents’ predisposition to produce round numbers during preference elicitation of the pre-negotiation phase. The agents negotiate on behalf of their principals and are asked to use information presented in terms of bar graphs and text to provide their principals’ preferences numerically. In doing that, they tend to use round numbers more often than sharp numbers. Also, more agents use round numbers than sharp numbers, however, the majority of agents use a mix of numbers. The results show that the increased use of round numbers results in greater inaccuracy; the most accurate are agents who use a mix or round and sharp numbers.
Gregory E. Kersten, Ewa Roszkowska, Tomasz Wachowicz

Neuroscience Experiment for Graphical Visualization in the FITradeoff Decision Support System

Abstract
The neuroscience approach is considered to be a study of the neural system and its implications for processes in the human body. Behavioral studies in Multicriteria Decision Making (MCDM) still have a gap and in this context, Neuroscience can be used as a decision support tool. Therefore, the aim of this research study is to explore the potential of using graphical visualization in the FITradeoff Decision Support System (DSS) by undertaking an eye-tracking experiment and applying it to a decision problem. In the end, based on the results, suggestions are made to the analyst and improvements are made to the design of the DSS so that solutions could be found that accurately express a decision maker’s preferences.
Lucia Reis Peixoto Roselli, Eduarda Asfora Frej, Adiel Teixeira de Almeida

Impact of Negotiators’ Predispositions on Their Efforts and Outcomes in Bilateral Online Negotiations

Abstract
This study uses the Thomas-Kilmann Instrument (TKI) to analyze the negotiators’ predispositions in handling conflicts in online negotiations. It explores the impacts of the individual predispositions on the negotiation processes and outcomes. The results show that TKI scores are significantly related to both the efforts that the negotiators put in their negotiation activities and the achieved agreements. The results also show that the various compositions of individual predispositions in dyadic negotiations can lead to different results.
Bo Yu, Gregory E. Kersten

Some Methodological Considerations for the Organization and Analysis of Inter- and Intra-cultural Negotiation Experiments

Abstract
In this paper we analyze some problems related to the design and analysis of the inter- and intra-cultural online negotiation experiments in which university students participate. We discuss factors that may impact the negotiation performance. Apart from national culture, which is an evident factor the impact of which is traditionally measured in cross-country negotiations, we discuss also the potential influences of university or students’ individual or group culture. When analyzing the negotiation performance, we focus not only on the bargaining process, but also on the pre-negotiation preparation. The paper provides a statistical analysis of the negotiation experiments organized in Inspire, which – unfortunately – were not designed to study all the issues raised in the paper, yet allow us to capture some of the ideas and notions discussed.
Tomasz Wachowicz, Gregory E. Kersten, Ewa Roszkowska

FITradeoff Method for the Location of Healthcare Facilities Based on Multiple Stakeholders’ Preferences

Abstract
Multiple stakeholders’ preferences are considered for solving a healthcare facility location problem in the city of Milan, Italy. The preference modeling is based on the Flexible and Interactive Tradeoff (FITradeoff), a Multicriteria Decision Making (MCDM) method used to elicit criteria scaling constants in additive models. FITradeoff is an easy tool for decision makers, because it requires them to exert less effort than other traditional elicitation methods, as the tradeoff procedure. Therefore, it is expected that fewer inconsistencies will appear during the elicitation process. Sixteen criteria were used to evaluate in which of six potential areas a new hospital could be sited. An analyst with a strong background in MCDM interviewed four actors, and elicited their preferences with the help of the FITradeoff Decision Support System (FITradeoff DSS).
Marta Dell’Ovo, Eduarda Asfora Frej, Alessandra Oppio, Stefano Capolongo, Danielle Costa Morais, Adiel Teixeira de Almeida

Capturing the Participants’ Voice: Using Causal Mapping Supported by Group Decision Software to Enhance Procedural Justice

Abstract
This paper examines the way in which causal mapping, aided by group decision software, adheres to the tenets of procedural justice. Causal mapping workshops utilise a dual facilitation process that enables the participants’ “voice” to be heard. We demonstrate how a causal mapping process of investigation surfaces authentic qualitative data by aligning the process of investigation with the principles of procedural justice as found in organisational justice literature. This is supported by a statistical analysis of the dimension of procedural justice using the responses of workshop participants.
Parmjit Kaur, Ashley L. Carreras

The Effects of Photographic Images on Agent to Human Negotiations: The Case of the Sicilian Clan

Abstract
Past studies in agent negotiations against humans have revealed important insights. The current study examines the effects of including a person’s photograph as a proxy for an agent in negotiations on the outcomes. To this end an experiment employing photos of a young person, a mature person, and an older individual to represent agents was conducted. The results revealed significant difference in terms of the agreement utilities achieved by the three groups of agents. Therefore, the choice of an image for representing a software agent plays an important role in determining the outcomes of human vs. agent negotiations.
Rustam Vahidov

Applications of Group Decision and Negotiations

Frontmatter

Analyzing Conflicts of Implementing High-Speed Railway Project in Central Asia Using Graph Model

Abstract
Conflicts arise when the proposed construction of a high-speed railway project in Central Asia affects the interests of Central Asian nations located along the route. By considering the national governments in Central Asia as decision makers, their possible actions in dealing with the conflicts are analyzed by using the graph model, a conflict resolution methodology. Three criteria, geological locations, political relations, and environmental concerns, are taken into account to accurately determine the preferences of these nations. The stabilities and equilibria of the model are calculated to provide potential strategic resolutions for these nations. The equilibrium that can take place in reality indicates that Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan can support a modified project. The opposition from Kyrgyzstan and Turkmenistan calls for appropriate resolutions from China in order to secure the successful implementation of the project.
Shawei He, Ekaterina Flegentova, Bing Zhu

Strategic Negotiation for Resolving Infrastructure Development Disputes in the Belt and Road Initiative

Abstract
Regional economic corridors are playing a role in uplifting the infrastructure of developing countries. But, such integrations are prone to some challenges emerging from the multilevel system of governance in participating countries. It is necessary that legitimate stakeholders get involved at national, provincial and local levels using collaborative planning and development. Exclusion at any level would ultimately lead to unsolicited and undesirable outcomes. The present study uses Graph Model for Conflict Resolution (GMCR) as a primary conflict resolution tool to resolve Pakistan Railway (PR) infrastructure development disputes under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). This tool takes into consideration interests of all stakeholders. It could be used for future planning by policymakers.
Waqas Ahmed, Qingmei Tan, Sharafat Ali

Attitudinal Analysis of Russia-Turkey Conflict with Chinese Role as a Third-Party Intervention

Abstract
The presented attitude-based conflict analysis models the Russia-Turkey conflict with the third-party intervention of China. Third-party intervention model considers the attitudes of three decision makers (DMs) to understand the behaviors of the DMs in decision making in the situation of a strategic conflict. Three sets of attitudes of DMs are considered for attitudinal conflict analysis. The study traces out how the inappropriate (negative) attitudes of Russia and Turkey, regardless of third-party’s attitude, would lead to unfavorable consequences. Even though the third-party, China, changes her attitude from neutral to positive, it would not affect the outcome. The attitudinal analysis reveals that the attitude of the focal decision maker, Russia, is important as the change in it influences the outcome of the conflict. The appropriate (positive) attitude of DMs would help resolve the conflict.
Sharafat Ali, Haiyan Xu, Peng Xu, Michelle Theodora

Behavioral Modeling of Attackers Based on Prospect Theory and Corresponding Defenders Strategy

Abstract
Many methods focused on describing the attackers’ behavior while ignoring defenders’ actions. Classical game-theoretic models assume that attackers maximize their utility, but experimental studies show that often this is not the case. In addition to expected utility maximization, decision-makers also consider loss of aversion or likelihood insensitivity. Improved game-theoretic models can consider the attackers’ adaptation to defenders’ decisions, but few useful advice or enlightenments have been given to defenders. In this article, in order to analyze from defenders’ perspective, current decision-making methods are augmented with prospect theory results so that the attackers’ decisions can be described under different values of loss aversion and likelihood insensitivity. The effects of the modified method and the consideration of upgrading the defense system are studied via simulation. Based on the simulation results, we arrive at a conclusion that the defenders’ optimal decision is sensitive to the attackers’ levels of loss aversion and likelihood insensitivity.
Ziyi Chen, Chunqi Wan, Bingfeng Ge, Yajie Dou, Yuejin Tan

A Multi-stakeholder Approach to Energy Transition Policy Formation in Jordan

Abstract
We present the method used in an ongoing project in Jordan for a multi-stakeholder, multi-criteria problem of formulating a nationwide energy strategy for the country for the next decades. The Jordanian government has recognized the need for energy transition and the main goal of the energy strategy is to provide a reliable energy supply by increasing the share of local energy resources in the energy mix, while reducing dependency on imported fossil fuels, by diversifying energy resources, also including renewable energy sources, nuclear and shale oil, and by enhancing environmental protection. There were strong incentives for a collaborative approach, since the ways in which different stakeholder groups subjectively attach meanings to electricity generation technologies are recognized as important issues shaping the attainment of energy planning objectives. To understand the meaning of these constructs, we are using a multi-stakeholder multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) approach to elicit criteria weights and valuations.
Mats Danielson, Love Ekenberg, Nadejda Komendantova

Backmatter

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