Hazard-based evaluation model of water inrush disaster sources in karst tunnels and its engineering application

Water inrush is one of the typical geological hazards that may occur during tunnel construction in a karst area. In this paper, a potential model is established based on attribute mathematics, to assess the risk of water inrush. First, the CaCO₃ content of regional strong karst, thickness of the regional strong karst layer, groundwater recharge area, discharge of groundwater, average temperature characteristic, groundwater level, groundwater cycle characteristic, surface karst morphology, fault structure, fold structure, and monoclinal structure are chosen as evaluation indexes of water inrush based on the principles of scientificity, rationality, operability, and representativeness. Second, the objective weight calculation formula is used to calculate the weights of the evaluation indices, and attribute measurement functions of each evaluation index are constructed to reckon the attribute measurement of a single index and synthetic attribute measurement. Lately, the identification and classification of water and mud inrush hazard in tunnels have been performed using a confidence criterion. In this paper, hazard level is graded as one of four types. The hazard-based assessment methodology is applied to the construction site of the Jigongling Tunnel along the entire Fanba Expressway route, and the findings are compared against the site’s actual situation. The results of the engineering practice show that the evaluation result is consistent with the actual construction situation; thus, the method can provide scientific guidance for tunnel construction units.