History and Basic Methods

How will the world develop? What lies ahead? What are the methods to find it out? What role will innovations play? Will we like them? Or will we need to intervene? These are questions affecting the way we shape our future, and answers to them can be sought in a number of ways: from horoscopes, from calculations, based on “feelings”, or with the aid of modern, social science methods. The latter includes the systematic mobilization of the experiential knowledge of appropriate experts. If — as is the case with this book — the topic concerns the future of science and technology, it is the researchers themselves whose opinions are desired. Perhaps personal predicting lies behind this or serves primarily one’s own interests rather than general predictions of the future. This is something we shall see in the future. But can the researchers who work on projects all be wrong?