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Erschienen in: The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics 3/2016

01.10.2016

Housing Market Dynamics: Disequilibrium, Mortgage Default, and Reverse Mortgages

verfasst von: Timothy Jones, Dean Gatzlaff, G. Stacy Sirmans

Erschienen in: The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics | Ausgabe 3/2016

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Abstract

The mortgage market collapse which followed the burst of the housing bubble in 2007 led to unprecedented levels of mortgage default, mortgage foreclosure, and housing vacancies. The dramatic increase in mortgage terminations prompted extensive discussions among academics, industry practitioners, regulators, and policymakers. These discussions included such issues as the underlying causes of the mortgage market collapse and the impact of declining house prices on mortgage default and foreclosure. This special issue results from the 2013 FSU-UF Critical Issues Symposium entitled “Housing Market Issues: Initiatives, Policies and the Economy” where the impact of the recent market collapse was examined on topics such as the negative spillover effect of foreclosure, the determinants of mortgage default and prepayment, disequilibrium models of the housing market, and the growth of the reverse mortgage market. This introductory paper serves to set the stage by relating the papers in this special issue to the previous literature. It provides both a clear picture of the state of knowledge in these critical areas and the significant contributions of these recent studies.

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Fußnoten
1
Data on the U.S. mortgage default rate is collected from the S&P/Experian’s First Mortgage Default Index, and data on the U.S. foreclosure rates comes from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) and Haver Analytics.
 
2
Quercia and Stegman (1992) provide a comprehensive survey of the residential mortgage default literature from the early 1960s to the early 1990s.
 
3
The unemployment rate is generally measured at the state or regional level, and the results appear to be robust to the choice of measurement.
 
4
Changes in construction wages, building material costs, short-term lending rates, or the restrictiveness of housing regulations can generate supply-side disturbances. Fluctuating macroeconomic conditions, changes in borrower income or wealth, changes in market demographics, and changes in the price of rental properties can generate demand-side disturbances.
 
5
The supply of housing (or supplier activity) is approximated by the number of building permits in a specific MSA, rather than using the stock of housing.
 
6
The “natural” vacancy rate implies that there is no excess supply or demand for housing, which represents “the outcome of the residential search process that involves households with stochastic preferences matching with a heterogeneous housing stock” (Arnott (1989) and Wheaton (1990)).
 
7
Created by Congress in 1987, the HECM’s primary objectives are (1) to permit the conversion of home equity into liquid assets to meet the special needs of elderly homeowners, (2) to encourage and increase participation by the mortgage markets in converting home equity into liquid assets, and (3) to determine the extent of demand for home equity conversion and the types of home equity conversion mortgages that best serve the needs of elderly homeowners. The program is administered by the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD).
 
8
Shan (2011) also predicts that lower interest rates increase the attractiveness of reverse mortgages since it allows borrowers to cash out a larger fraction of their home equity at the time of loan origination. However, it is impossible to separately identify the effect of lower interest rates on the demand for reverse mortgages since yields on Treasury bills do not vary across locations.
 
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Metadaten
Titel
Housing Market Dynamics: Disequilibrium, Mortgage Default, and Reverse Mortgages
verfasst von
Timothy Jones
Dean Gatzlaff
G. Stacy Sirmans
Publikationsdatum
01.10.2016
Verlag
Springer US
Erschienen in
The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics / Ausgabe 3/2016
Print ISSN: 0895-5638
Elektronische ISSN: 1573-045X
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11146-016-9567-y

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