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Quality & Quantity
Erschienen in:

07.06.2024 | Original paper

How do consumers respond to COVID-19? Application of Bayesian approach on credit card transaction data

verfasst von: Yu-You Liou, Hung-Hao Chang, David R. Just

Erschienen in: Quality & Quantity | Ausgabe 6/2024

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Abstract

Determining how consumers respond to unexpected outbreaks has been one of the core research areas in risk analysis. Using the case of the COVID-19 pandemic, this study estimates consumption behavior and pays significant attention to understanding the information updating process of consumers regarding the spread of the pandemic. We propose four different models of information updating: the naïve expectation, adaptive expectation, perfect and non-perfect Bayesian models. Using the real-time credit card transactions in Taiwan, we find that consumers respond to the spread of COVID-19 confirmed cases in the way predicted by the perfect Bayesian model. Moreover, we find that COVID-19 increases consumers’ expenditure on clothing and transportation in offline markets. With respect to food consumption, we find a decrease in offline and an increased expenditure in online markets. Our findings are robust to different measurements of COVID-19 spread.
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Fußnoten
1
In the economics of uncertainty, the welfare of the representative consumer depends on his/her expected utility of each possible scenario. For the purpose of illustration, only two scenarios are commonly assumed to derive tractable results (e.g., Lusk et al. 2014).
 
2
Chang et al. (2021) evaluate the impact of COVID-19 on metro use in Taiwan. The authors use the cumulative cases of COVID-19 as the measure to capture the severity of COVID-19 spreading in Taiwan.
 
3
For example, West (1993) uses a Bayesian model to investigate a nonlinear relationship between the quantity of television advertisement and the perception of the audience.
 
4
These companies include Chinatrust Commercial Bank, Mega International Commercial Bank, Cathay United Bank, E. Sun Bank, Union Bank of Taiwan, The Shanghai Commercial & Savings Bank, Bank SinoPac, Standard Chartered Bank, KGI Bank, Taipei Fubon Bank, Far Eastern International Bank, JihSun International Commercial Bank, Taishin International Bank, Entie Commercial Bank, DBS Bank in Taiwan, Shin Kong Bank, Yuanta Commercial Bank, Sunny Bank, Hwatai Bank, COTA Bank, First Commercial Bank, Hua Nan Commercial Bank, Taiwan Rakuten Card, Taichung Commercial Bank, O-Bank, LINE Bank Taiwan, etc.
 
5
For example, Permai and Tanty (2018) have used MAPE to compare model performance between Bayesian and OLS models.
 
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Metadaten
Titel
How do consumers respond to COVID-19? Application of Bayesian approach on credit card transaction data
verfasst von
Yu-You Liou
Hung-Hao Chang
David R. Just
Publikationsdatum
07.06.2024
Verlag
Springer Netherlands
Erschienen in
Quality & Quantity / Ausgabe 6/2024
Print ISSN: 0033-5177
Elektronische ISSN: 1573-7845
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11135-024-01915-9

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