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Erschienen in:
2017 | OriginalPaper | Buchkapitel
How to Make Plausibility-Based Forecasting More Accurate
verfasst von : Kongliang Zhu, Nantiworn Thianpaen, Vladik Kreinovich
Erschienen in: Robustness in Econometrics
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Abstract
In recent papers, a new plausibility-based forecasting method was proposed. While this method has been empirically successful, one of its steps—selecting a uniform probability distribution for the plausibility level—is heuristic. It is therefore desirable to check whether this selection is optimal or whether a modified selection would like to a more accurate forecast. In this paper, we show that the uniform distribution does not always lead to (asymptotically) optimal estimates, and we show how to modify the uniform-distribution step so that the resulting estimates become asymptotically optimal.