nach oben

Erschienen in:

2019 | OriginalPaper | Buchkapitel

Hydrological Ensemble Prediction Systems Around the Globe

verfasst von : Florian Pappenberger, Thomas C. Pagano, J. D. Brown, Lorenzo Alfieri, D. A. Lavers, L. Berthet, F. Bressand, Hannah L. Cloke, M. Cranston, J. Danhelka, J. Demargne, N. Demuth, C. de Saint-Aubin, P. M. Feikema, M. A. Fresch, R. Garçon, A. Gelfan, Y. He, Y. -Z. Hu, B. Janet, N. Jurdy, P. Javelle, L. Kuchment, Y. Laborda, E. Langsholt, M. Le Lay, Z. J. Li, F. Mannessiez, A. Marchandise, R. Marty, D. Meißner, D. Manful, D. Organde, V. Pourret, Silke Rademacher, Maria-Helena Ramos, D. Reinbold, S. Tibaldi, P. Silvano, Peter Salamon, D. Shin, C. Sorbet, Eric Sprokkereef, V. Thiemig, Narendra Kumar Tuteja, S. J. van Andel, Jan S. Verkade, B. Vehviläinen, A. Vogelbacher, Fredrik Wetterhall, Massimiliano Zappa, R. E. Van der Zwan, Jutta Thielen-del Pozo

Erschienen in: Handbook of Hydrometeorological Ensemble Forecasting

Verlag: Springer Berlin Heidelberg

Einloggen

Aktivieren Sie unsere intelligente Suche, um passende Fachinhalte oder Patente zu finden.

search-config

KI-gestützte Suche

Aus

Abstract

A large number of hydrological forecasting systems exist across the globe. Recent advances have pushed the limits of predictability of discharge and other hydrological variables from a few hours to several days or even months. In this chapter, we aim to give an overview of Hydrological Ensemble Prediction Systems across the globe. It provides brief descriptions of existing or preoperational systems as background, and discusses the challenges ahead. This overview shows that there is at least one system per continent, though their geographic domain varies considerably among very small catchments, countries national and interregional basins, transnational basins, continents, or even the entire globe. It highlights common challenges and differences.

Sie haben noch keine Lizenz? Dann Informieren Sie sich jetzt über unsere Produkte:

Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

über 102.000 Bücher
über 537 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

Automobil + Motoren
Bauwesen + Immobilien
Business IT + Informatik
Elektrotechnik + Elektronik
Energie + Nachhaltigkeit
Finance + Banking
Management + Führung
Marketing + Vertrieb
Maschinenbau + Werkstoffe
Versicherung + Risiko

Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Jetzt informieren

Springer Professional "Technik"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Technik" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

über 67.000 Bücher
über 390 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

Automobil + Motoren
Bauwesen + Immobilien
Business IT + Informatik
Elektrotechnik + Elektronik
Energie + Nachhaltigkeit
Maschinenbau + Werkstoffe

Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Jetzt informieren

Vorheriges Kapitel Introduction to Ensemble Forecast Applications and Showcases

Nächstes Kapitel Flash Flood Forecasting Based on Rainfall Thresholds

N. Addor, S. Jaun, F. Fundel, M. Zappa, An operational hydrological ensemble prediction system for the city of Zurich (Switzerland): skill, case studies and scenarios. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 15, 2327–2347 (2011). https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-15-2327-2011CrossRef

A. Agnetti, M. Del Longo, C. De Michele, V. Pavan, S. Pecora, R. Vezzoli, E. Zenoni, Seasonal to daily drought prediction in the Po catchment, Italy, in Proceedings of the 13th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Storms Savona, Italy 7–9 Sept 2011

L. Alfieri, P. Salamon, F. Pappenberger, F. Wetterhall, J. Thielen, Operational early warning systems for water-related hazards in Europe. Environ. Sci Pol 21, 35–49 (2012)CrossRef

L. Alfieri, P. Burek, E. Dutra, B. Krzeminski, D. Muraro, J. Thielen, F. Pappenberger, GloFAS – global ensemble streamflow forecasting and flood early warning. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 17, 1161–1175 (2013). https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-1161-2013CrossRef

L. Alfieri, F. Pappenberger, F. Wetterhall, T. Haiden, D. Richardson, P. Salamon, Evaluation of ensemble streamflow predictions in Europe, J. Hydrol., (online version) (2014). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.06.035CrossRef

F. Anctil, M.H. Ramos, F. Pappenberger, Multi-model approaches for river flow forecasting: blessing or burden? (2014) http://hepex.irstea.fr/multi-model-approaches-for-river-flow-forecasting-blessing-or-burden/. Last accessed 29 Apr 2014

E.A. Anderson, National Weather Service River Forecast System-Snow Accumulation and Ablation Model, NOAA Technical Memorandum: NWS Hydro-17, U.S. National Weather Service (1973)

P. Arnaud, J. Lavabre, Coupled rainfall model and discharge model for flood frequency estimation. Water Resour. Res. 38–6 (2002). https://doi.org/10.1029/2001WR000474CrossRef

G. Balsamo, P. Viterbo, A. Beljaars, B. van den Hurk, M. Hirschi, A.K. Betts, K. Scipal, A revised hydrology for the ECMWF model: verification from field site to terrestrial water storage and impact in the Integrated Forecast System. J. Hydrometeorol. 10, 623–643 (2009)CrossRef

S. Beldring, K. Engeland, L.A. Roald, N.R. Sælthun, A. Voksø, Estimation of parameters in a distributed precipitation-runoff model for Norway. HESS 7(3), 304–316 (2003)

S. Bergström, The HBV model, in Computer Models of Watershed Hydrology, ed. by V.P. Singh (Water Resources Publications, Highlands Ranch, 1995)

L. Berthet, V. Andréassian, C. Perrin, P. Javelle, How crucial is it to account for the antecedent moisture conditions in flood forecasting? Comparison of event-based and continuous approaches on 178 catchments. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 13(6), 819–831 (2009). https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-13-819-2009CrossRef

K. Bogner, F. Pappenberger, Multiscale error analysis, correction, and predictive uncertainty estimation in a flood forecasting system Water Resour. Res. 47 (2011)

M. Bremicker, G. Brahmer, N. Demuth, F.-K. Holle, I. Haag, Räumlich hoch aufgelöste LARSIM Wasserhaushaltsmodelle für die Hochwasservorhersage und weitere Anwendungen. KW Korrespondenz Wasserwirtschaft. 6(9), 509–514 (2013)

F. Bressand, Le projet ALHTAIR du service d’annonce des crues. La Houille Blanche 2, 64–68 (2002)CrossRef

J.D. Brown, J. Demargne, D.-J. Seo, Y. Liu, The Ensemble Verification System (EVS): a software tool for verifying ensemble forecasts of hydrometeorological and hydrologic variables at discrete locations. Environ. Model. Softw. 25, 854–872 (2010)CrossRef

P. Burek, J. Van Der Knijff, A. De Roo, LISFLOOD, distributed water balance and flood simulation model – revised user manual 2013. Inst. Environ. Sustain. 2013, 150

R.J.C. Burnash, The NWS river forecast system – catchment modeling, in Computer Models of Watershed Hydrology, ed. by V.P. Singh (Water Resources Publications, Littleton, 1995), pp. 311–366

L. Casicci, A. Montani, S. Pecora, F. Tonelli, M. Vergnani, Pre-operational use of a meteorological and hydrological/hydraulic ensemble approach on the Po River, in Proceedings of The European Geosciences Union General Assembly, Vienna, 3–8 Apr 2011

J. Chardon, T. Mathevet, M. Le Lay, Comparison of two uncertainty dressing methods: SAD VS DAD. In prep. (2014)

M. Clark, S. Gangopadhyay, L. Hay, B. Rajagopalan, R. Wilby, The Schaake shuffle: a method for reconstructing space–time variability in forecasted precipitation and temperature fields. J. Hydrometeorol. 5, 243–262 (2004)CrossRef

H.L. Cloke, F. Pappenberger, Ensemble flood forecasting: a review. J. Hydrol. 375(3–4), 613–626 (2009)CrossRef

H.L. Cloke, J. Thielen, F. Pappenberger, S. Nobert, P. Salamon, R. Buizza, G. Bálint, C. Edlund, A. Koistinen, C. de Saint-Aubin, C. Viel, E. Sprokkereef, Progress in the implementation of Hydrological Ensemble Prediction Systems (HEPS) in Europe for operational flood forecasting. ECMWF Newsl. 121, 20–24 (2009)

M. Coustau, C. Bouvier, V. Borrell-Estupina, H. Jourde, Flood modelling with a distributed event-based parsimonious rainfall-runoff model: case of the karstic Lez river catchment. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. 12, 1119–1133 (2012). https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-12-1119-2012CrossRef

M.D. Cranston, R. Maxey, A.C.W. Tavendale, P. Buchanan, A. Motion, S. Cole, A. Robson, R.J. Moore, A. Minett, Countrywide flood forecasting in Scotland: challenges for hydrometeorological model uncertainty and prediction, in Weather Radar and Hydrology, Proceedings of Symposium, Exeter (2011), April 2011, IAHS Publ. No. 351

L. Cuo, C.P. Thomas, Q.J. Wang, A review of quantitative precipitation forecasts and their use in short- to medium-range streamflow forecasting. J. Hydrometeorol 12, 713–728 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1175/2011JHM1347.1CrossRef

D.P. Dee, S.M. Uppala, A.J. Simmons, P. Berrisford, P. Poli, S. Kobayashi, U. Andrae, M.A. Balmaseda, G. Balsamo, P. Bauer, P. Bechtold et al., The ERA-Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 137(656), 553–597 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.828CrossRef

J. Demargne, L. Wu, S.K. Regonda, J.D. Brown, H. Lee, M. He, D-J. Seo, R. Hartman, H.D. Herr, M. Fresch, J. Schaake, Y. Zhu, The science of NOAA’s operational hydrologic ensemble forecast service. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 79–98 (2014a), in pressCrossRef

J. Demargne, L. Wu, S. Regonda, J.D. Brown, H. Lee, M. He, D.-J. Seo, R. Hartman, M. Fresch, J. Schaake, Y. Zhu, The science of NOAA’s operational hydrologic ensemble forecast service. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 95, 79–98 (2014b). https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00081.1CrossRef

B. Desaint, P. Nogues, C. Perret, R. Garçon, La prévision hydrométéorologique opérationnelle: l’expérience d’Electricité de France [Operational hydro-meteorological forecasting: the experience of Electricité de France]. La Houille Blanche 5, 39–46 (2009) [in French]

DHI, MIKE 11 – A Modelling System for Rivers and Channels, Reference Manual. DHI Water and Environment, Hørsholm, Danmark (2007)

R.E. Emerton, E.M. Stephens, F. Pappenberger, T.C. Pagano, A.H. Weerts, A.W. Wood, P. Salamon, J.D. Brown, N. Hjerdt, C. Donnelly, C.A. Baugh, H.L. Cloke, Continental and global scale flood forecasting systems, WIREs Water, Under review (2015)

T. Follestad, G. Høst, A statistical model for the uncertainty of meteorological forecasts with application to the Knappom and Røykenes catchments. HYDRA note. Available from NVE, Oslo (1998)

F. Fundel, M. Zappa, Hydrological ensemble forecasting in mesoscale catchments: sensitivity to initial conditions and value of reforecasts. Water Resour. Res. 47, W09520 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1029/2010WR009996CrossRef

F. Fundel, S. Joerg-Hess, M. Zappa, Monthly hydrometeorological ensemble prediction of streamflow droughts and corresponding drought indices. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 395–407 (2013). https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-395-2013CrossRef

R. Garçon, Modèle global pluie-débit pour la prévision et la prédétermination des crues. La Houille Blanche 7–8, 88–95 (1999)CrossRef

C. Gebhardt, S.E. Theis, M. Paulat, Z. Ben Bouallègue, Uncertainties in COSMO-DE precipitation forecasts introduced by model perturbations and variation of lateral boundaries. Atmos. Res. 100(2–3), 168–177 (2011)CrossRef

U. Germann, M. Berenguer, D. Sempere-Torres, M. Zappa, REAL – ensemble radar precipitation for hydrology in a mountanious region. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 135, 445–456 (2009). https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.375CrossRef

H.Y. He, H.L. Cloke, F. Wetterhall, F. Pappenberger, J. Freer, M. Wilson, Tracking the uncertainty in flood alerts driven by grand ensemble weather predictions. Meteorol. Appl. 16(1), 91–101 (2009)CrossRef

F.-K. Holle, Hochwasservorhersage in Bayern, Modellumgebung und DV-Vernetzung, in ÖWAV – Seminar Hochwässer, Bemessung, Risikoanalyse und Vorhersage, Wien 26. Mai 2009. Wiener Mitteilungen, Wasser – Abwasser – Gewässer, Bd. 216, ed. by Institut für Wasserbau und Ingenieurhydrologie TU-Wien (2009). ISBN: 978-3-85234-108-8

P. Javelle, C. Fouchier, P. Arnaud, J. Lavabre, Flash flood warning at ungauged locations using radar rainfall and antecedent soil moisture estimations. J. Hydrol. 394(1–2), 267–274 (2010)CrossRef

P. Javelle, J. Demargne, D. Defrance, J. Pansu, P. Arnaud, Evaluating flash-flood warnings at ungauged locations using post-event surveys: a case study with the AIGA warning system. Hydrol. Sci. J. 59(7), 1390–1402 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2014.923970CrossRef

A. Kauffeldt, F. Wetterhall, F. Pappenberger, First step towards a multi-model probabilistic flood forecasting system for Europe, http://hepex.irstea.fr/existing-continental-hydrological-models/. Last accessed 29 Apr 2014

L.S. Kuchment, A.N. Gelfan, A study of effectiveness of the ensemble long-term forecasts of spring floods issued with physically-based models of river runoff formation. Russ. Meteorol. Hydrol. 34, 100–109 (2009)CrossRef

L.S. Kuchment, A.N. Gelfan, Assessment of extreme flood characteristics based on a dynamic-stochastic model of runoff generation and the probable maximum discharge. J. Flood Risk Manage. 4, 115–127 (2011)CrossRef

L.S. Kuchment, V.N. Demidov, Y.G. Motovilov, A physically-based model of the formation of snowmelt and rainfall runoff, in Modeling Snowmelt-Induced Processes, ed. by E.M. Morris, vol 155 (IAHS Publications, Budapest, 1986), pp. 27–36

M. Le Lay, J. Gailhard, P. Bernard, R. Garçon, Prévisibilité hydrométéorologique à l’échelle intra-saisonnière: l’expérience d’EDF-DTG. Ateliers de Modélisation de l’Atmosphère, Météo-France, Toulouse. (2013). http://www.meteo.fr/cic/meetings/2013/AMA/resumes/pres_027.pdf. [In French]

G. Lindström, B. Johansson, M. Persson, M. Gardelin, S. Bergström, Development and test of the distributed HBV-96 hydrological model. J. Hydrol. 201(1), 272–288 (1997)CrossRef

K. Ludwig, M. Bremicker, The water balance model LARSIM, in Freiburger Schriften zur Hydrologie, Band 22 (Institut für Hydrologie der Universität Freiburg, 2006). pp. 1–141

H. Maden, C. Skotner, Adaptive state updating in real-time river flow forecasting – a combined filtering and error forecasting procedure. J. Hydrol. 308, 302–312 (2005)CrossRef

R. Marty, I. Zin, C. Obled, G. Bontron, A. Djerboua, Towards real-time daily PQPF by an analog sorting approach. Application to flash flood catchments. J. Appl. Meteorol. Climatol. 51, 505–520 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-11-011.1CrossRef

R. Maxey, M. Cranston, A. Tavendale, P. Buchanan, The use of deterministic and probabilistic forecasting in countrywide flood guidance in Scotland. Br. Hydrol. Soc. (2012). https://doi.org/10.7558/bhs.2012.ns33CrossRef

D. Meißner, S. Rademacher, Die verkehrsbezogene Wasserstandsvorhersage für die Bundeswasserstraße Rhein – Verlängerung des Vorhersagezeitraums und Steigerung der Vorhersagequalität. Korrespondenz Wasserwirtschaft, 9, 531–537 09/10 (2010)

D. Meißner, S. Gebauer, A.H. Schumann, M. Pahlow, S. Rademacher, Analyse radarbasierter Niederschlagsprodukte als Eingangsdaten verkehrsbezogener Wasserstandsvorhersagen am Rhein. Hydrol. Wasserbewirtsch. 1, 02/2012 (2012). https://doi.org/10.5675/HyWa_2012,1_2

J. Neal, I. Villanueva, N. Wright, T. Willis, T. Fewtrell, P. Bates, How much physical complexity is needed to model flood inundation? Hydrol. Process. (2011) https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.8339CrossRef

Ø. Langsrud, A. Frigessi, G. Høst, Pure model error for the HBV model. HYDRA note. Available from NVE, Oslo (1998a)

Ø. Langsrud, G. Høst, T. Follestad, A. Frigessi, Quantifying uncertainty in HBV runoff forecasts by stochastic simulations. HYDRA note. Available from NVE, Oslo (1998b)

Pagano et al., Challenges of operational river forecasting. J. Hydrometeorol. 2014; e-View https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-13-0188.1CrossRef

F. Pappenberger, TIGGE and the multi-model approach in hydrology (a brief review) (2014). http://hepex.irstea.fr/tigge-and-the-multi-model-approach-in-hydrology-a-brief-scientific-review/. Last accessed 29 Apr 2014

F. Pappenberger, J. Thielen, M. del Medico, The impact of weather forecast improvements on large scale hydrology: analysing a decade of forecasts of the European Flood Alert System. Hydrol. Process. 25(7) (2011). https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.7772,2010

C. Perrin, C. Michel, V. Andréassian, Improvement of a parsimonious model for streamflow simulation. J. Hydrol. 279, 275–289 (2003). https://doi.org/10.1016/S0022-1694(03)00225-7CrossRef

M. Renner, M.G.F. Werner, S. Rademacher, E. Sprokkereef, Verification of ensemble flow forecasts for the River Rhine. J. Hydrol. 376, 463–475 (2009). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.07.059CrossRef

J. Roe, C. Dietz, P. Restrepo, J. Halquist, R. Hartman, R. Horwood, W. Olsen, H. Opitz, R. Shedd, E. Welles, NOAA’s Community Hydrologic Prediction System. Presented at the 2nd Joint Federal Interagency Conference in Las Vegas, June 27 – July 1, 2010. Link:http://acwi.gov/sos/pubs/2ndJFIC/Contents/7E_Roe_12_28_09.pdf

H. Roux et al., A physically-based parsimonious hydrological model for flash floods in Mediterranean catchments. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. 11(9), 2567–2582 (2011)CrossRef

N.R. Sælthun, The “Nordic” HBV model. Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate Report No. 7 (1996)

J. Schaake, J. Demargne, R. Hartman, M. Mullusky, E. Welles, L. Wu, H. Herr, X. Fan, D.J. Seo, Precipitation and temperature ensemble forecasts from single-value forecasts. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 4, 655–717 (2007)CrossRef

Y. Seity, P. Brousseau, S. Malardel, G. Hello, P. Bernard, F. Bouttier, C. Lac, V. Masson, The AROME–France convective-scale operational model. Mon. Weather Rev. 139, 976–991 (2010)CrossRef

Y. Seity, P. Brousseau, S. Malardel, G. Hello, P. Bénard, F. Bouttier, C. Lac, V. Masson, The AROME–France convective-scale operational model. Mon. Weather Rev. 139, 976–991 (2011)CrossRef

D.-J. Seo, H.D. Herr, J.C. Schaake, A statistical post-processor for accounting of hydrologic uncertainty in short-range ensemble streamflow prediction. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 3, 1987–2035 (2006)CrossRef

D. Shin, A. Schepen, T. Peatey, S. Zhou, A. MacDonald, T. Chia, J. Perkins, N. Plummer, WAFARi: a new modelling system for seasonal streamflow forecasting service of the Bureau of Meteorology, in 19th International Congress on Modelling and Simulation (MODSIM), (Perth, 2011), 12–16 Dec 2011

W. Sittner, C. Schauss, J. Monro, Continuous hydrograph synthesis with an API-type hydrologic model. Water Resour. Res. 5(5), 1007–1022 (1969)CrossRef

T. Skaugen, C. Onof, A rainfall-runoff model parameterized from GIS and runoff data. Hydrol. Process. (2013) https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.9968 (in press)CrossRef

SPC-Allier Réglement de surveillance, de prévision et de transmission de l’Information sur les Crues (RIC) Direction Régionale de l’Environnement, de l’Aménagement et du Logement/Auvergne, 2013. Link http://www.vigicrues.ecologie.gouv.fr/ftp/RIC/RIC_SPC_AL_2013.pdf

SPC-LCI Réglement de surveillance, de prévision et de transmission de l’Information sur les Crues (RIC) Direction Régionale de l’Environnement, de l’Aménagement et du Logement/Centre, 2013. Link http://www.vigicrues.ecologie.gouv.fr/ftp/RIC/RIC_SPC_LCI_2013.pdf

J. Thielen, K. Bogner, F. Pappenberger, M. Kalas, M. del Medico, A. de Roo, Monthly-, medium- and short range flood warning: testing the limits of predictability. Meteorol. Appl. 16(1), 77–90 (2009)CrossRef

V. Thiemig, B. Bisselink, F. Pappenberger, J. Thielen, A pan-African flood forecasting system. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss. 11, 5559–5597 (2014)CrossRef

N.K. Tuteja, D. Shin, R. Laugesen, U. Khan, Q. Shao, E. Wang, M. Li, H. Zheng, G. Kuczera, D. Kavetski, G. Evin, M. Thyer, A. Macdonald, T. Chia, B. Le, Experimental Evaluation of the Dynamic Seasonal Streamflow Forecasting Approach. Technical report, (Bureau of Meteorology, Canberra, 2011)

S.J. Van Andel, R. Price, A. Lobbrecht, F. van Kruiningen, R. Mureau, W. Cordero, Framework for anticipatory water management. J. Water Resour. Plan. Manag. 140, 533–542 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0000254CrossRef

J.M. van der Knijff, J. Younis, A.P.J. de Roo, LISFLOOD: a GIS-based distributed model for river-basin scalewater balance and flood simulation. Int. J. Geogr. Inf. Sci. 24(2), 189–212 (2010)CrossRef

B. Vehviläinen, The watershed simulation and forecasting system in the National Board of Waters and Environment. Publications of the Water and Environment Research Institute. National Board of Waters and the Environment, Finland. No. 17. (1994)

Verkade et al., Development path of operational forecasting systems. (2014)

B. Vincendon, V. Ducrocq, G.M. Saulnier, L. Bouilloud, K. Chancibault, F. Habets, J. Noilhan, Benefice of coupling the ISBA land surface model with a TOPMODEL hydrological model version dedicated to Mediterranean flash-floods. J. Hydrol. (Impact Factor: 2.96). 01/2010; 394, 256–266 (2010). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.04.012CrossRef

B. Vincendon, V. Ducrocq, O. Nuissier, B. Vié, Introducing perturbation in rainfall fields for an ensemble forecasting of flash-flood. NHESS 11, 1529–1544 (2011)

D. Viviroli, M. Zappa, J. Gurtz, R. Weingartner, An introduction to the hydrological modelling system PREVAH and its pre- and post-processing-tools. Environ. Model. Softw. 24(10), 1209–1222 (2009). doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2009.04.001CrossRef

Q.J. Wang, D.E. Robertson, Multisite probabilistic forecasting of seasonal flows for streams with zero value occurrences. Water Resour. Res. 47, W02546 (2011). doi:10.1029/2010WR009333CrossRef

Q.J. Wang, D.E. Robertson, F.H.S. Chiew, A Bayesian joint probability modelling approach for seasonal forecasting of streamflows at multiple sites. Water Resour. Res. 45, W05407 (2009a). https://doi.org/10.1029/2008WR007355CrossRef

Y. Wang et al., The Central European limited area ensemble forecasting system: ALADINLAEF. RC LACE report (2009b). http://www.rclace.eu/File/Predictability/2009/laef4lace.pdf

A.H. Weerts, H.C. Winsemius, J.S. Verkade, Estimation of predictive hydrological uncertainty using quantile regression: examples from the National Flood Forecasting System (England and Wales). Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 15, 255–265 (2011). https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-15-255CrossRef

M. Werner, M. van Dijk, J. Shellekens, Delft-FEWS: an open shell flood forecasting system, in 6th International Conference on Hydroinformatics, ed. by S.Y. Liong, K. Phoon, V. Babovic (World Scientific Publishing Company, Singapore, 2004), pp. 1205–1212CrossRef

M. Werner, J. Schellekens, P. Gijsbers, M. van Dijk, O. van den Akker, K. Heynert, The delft-FEWS flow forecasting system. Environ. Model. Softw. 40, 65–77 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2012.07.010CrossRef

F. Wetterhall, F. Pappenberger, L. Alfieri, H.L. Cloke, J. Thielen-del Pozo, S. Balabanova, J. Daňhelka, A. Vogelbacher, P. Salamon, I. Carrasco, A.J. Cabrera-Tordera, M. Corzo-Toscano, M. Garcia-Padilla, R.J. Garcia-Sanchez, C. Ardilouze, S. Jurela, B. Terek, A. Csik, J. Casey, G. Stankūnavičius, V. Ceres, E. Sprokkereef, J. Stam, E. Anghel, D. Vladikovic, C. Alionte Eklund, N. Hjerdt, H. Djerv, F. Holmberg, J. Nilsson, K. Nyström, M. Sušnik, M. Hazlinger, M. Holubecka, HESS opinions “Forecaster priorities for improving probabilistic flood forecasts”. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 17, 4389–4399 (2013). https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-4389-2013CrossRef

L. Wu, D.-J. Seo, J. Demargne, J.D. Brown, S. Cong, J. Schaake, Generation of ensemble precipitation forecast from single-valued quantitative precipitation forecast via meta-Gaussian distribution models. J. Hydrol. 399(3–4), 281–298 (2011)CrossRef

J. Younis, M.H. Ramos, J. Thielen, EFAS forecasts for the March-April 2006 flood in the Czech part of the Elbe River Basin – a case study. Atmos. Sci. Lett. 9(2), 88–94 (2008)CrossRef

I. Zalachori, M.H. Ramos, R. Garçon, T. Mathevet, J. Gailhard, Statistical processing of forecasts for hydrological ensemble prediction: a comparative study of different bias correction strategies. Adv. Sci. Res. 8, 135–141 (2012)CrossRef

M. Zappa, M.W. Rotach, M. Arpagaus, M. Dorninger, C. Hegg, A. Montani, R. Ranzi, F. Ament, U. Germann, G. Grossi, S. Jaun, A. Rossa, S. Vogt, A. Walser, J. Wehrhan, C. Wunram, MAP D-PHASE: real-time demonstration of hydrological ensemble prediction systems. Atmos. Sci. Lett. 2, 80–87 (2008). https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.183CrossRef

Titel: Hydrological Ensemble Prediction Systems Around the Globe
verfasst von: Florian Pappenberger
Thomas C. Pagano
J. D. Brown
Lorenzo Alfieri
D. A. Lavers
L. Berthet
F. Bressand
Hannah L. Cloke
M. Cranston
J. Danhelka
J. Demargne
N. Demuth
C. de Saint-Aubin
P. M. Feikema
M. A. Fresch
R. Garçon
A. Gelfan
Y. He
Y. -Z. Hu
B. Janet
N. Jurdy
P. Javelle
L. Kuchment
Y. Laborda
E. Langsholt
M. Le Lay
Z. J. Li
F. Mannessiez
A. Marchandise
R. Marty
D. Meißner
D. Manful
D. Organde
V. Pourret
Silke Rademacher
Maria-Helena Ramos
D. Reinbold
S. Tibaldi
P. Silvano
Peter Salamon
D. Shin
C. Sorbet
Eric Sprokkereef
V. Thiemig
Narendra Kumar Tuteja
S. J. van Andel
Jan S. Verkade
B. Vehviläinen
A. Vogelbacher
Fredrik Wetterhall
Massimiliano Zappa
R. E. Van der Zwan
Jutta Thielen-del Pozo
Verlag: Springer Berlin Heidelberg
Buch: Handbook of Hydrometeorological Ensemble Forecasting
Print ISBN: 978-3-642-39924-4

Electronic ISBN: 978-3-642-39925-1

Copyright-Jahr: 2019
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-39925-1_47