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Über dieses Buch

This second edition explores some of the latest techniques used to provide forecasts for a wide range of water-related applications in areas such as floods, droughts, water resources and environmental impacts. The practical uses can range from decisions on whether to issue a flood warning through to providing longer-term advice such as on when to plant and harvest crops or how to operate reservoirs for water supply and hydropower schemes. It provides an introduction to the topic for practitioners and researchers and useful background for courses in areas such as civil engineering, water resources, meteorology and hydrology.

As in the first edition, the first section considers topics such as monitoring and forecasting techniques, demand forecasting and how forecasts are interpreted when issuing warnings or advice. Separate chapters are now included for meteorological and catchment monitoring techniques allowing a more in-depth discussion of topics such as weather radar and water quality observations. The chapters on meteorological and hydrological forecasting now include a greater emphasis on rainfall forecasting and ensemble and probabilistic techniques. Regarding the interpretation of forecasts, an updated chapter discusses topics such as approaches to issuing warnings and the use of decision support systems and risk-based techniques.

Given the rapid pace of development in flash flood fore

casting techniques, flash floods and slower responding riverine floods are now considered in separate chapters. This includes more detail on forecasting floods in large river basins and on methods for providing early warnings of debris flows, surface water flooding and ice jam and dam break floods. Later chapters now include more information on developing areas such as environmental modelling and seasonal flow forecasting. As before examples of operational systems are provided throughout and the extensive sets of references which were a feature of the first edition have been revised and updated.

Key themes • floods • droughts • meteorological observations • catchment monitoring • meteorological forecasts • hydrological forecasts • demand forecasts • reservoirs • water resources • water quality • decision support • data assimilation • probabilistic forecasts

Kevin Sene is a civil engineer and researcher with wide experience in flood risk management, water resources and hydrometeorology. He has previously published books on flood warning, forecasting and emergency response and flash floods (Springer 2008, 2013).

Inhaltsverzeichnis

Frontmatter

Chapter 1. Introduction

Hydrometeorological forecasts are used in a wide range of applications such as early warning systems, reservoir operations, pollution control and river basin management. Typically meteorological observations and forecasts are used as inputs to hydrological models, whose outputs are then processed into a range of products tailored to operational needs. Increasingly this includes estimates for the uncertainty in forecasts, based on probabilistic techniques. This chapter presents a general introduction to these topics including developing areas such as seasonal forecasting and risk-based approaches to decision-making.
Kevin Sene

Techniques

Frontmatter

Chapter 2. Meteorological Observations

Meteorological observations play a key role in many flood, drought, environmental and water resources applications. Whilst rainfall observations are most widely used, other parameters of interest include air temperatures, humidity and wind speeds. The main measurement techniques include raingauges, weather stations and weather radar, with satellite precipitation estimates playing an important role in data-sparse regions. This chapter discusses these approaches and some of their strengths and limitations for hydrological applications. This includes a discussion of multisensor techniques which seek to combine the best features from several different observation systems.
Kevin Sene

Chapter 3. Catchment Monitoring

Observations of catchment conditions are essential for many forecasting applications. Examples include measurements of water levels in rivers, lakes and reservoirs and estimates for evapotranspiration, snow cover and soil moisture at a catchment scale. Additional information may be required for water quality applications. This chapter discusses some of the main techniques used and the related issues of hydrometric data management and telemetry systems. This includes a discussion of river flow estimation using stage-discharge relationships and some basic considerations regarding the design of monitoring networks.
Kevin Sene

Chapter 4. Meteorological Forecasting

Meteorological forecasts offer the potential to extend the time available for decision-making in hydrological applications. In addition to the general weather forecasts provided to the public, a range of more specialised products and services are usually available, including the raw forecasting model outputs if required. Examples include ensemble rainfall forecasts for flood forecasting and water supply applications, seasonal forecasts for drought and agricultural applications and air temperature forecasts for snowmelt and demand forecasting. The main meteorological forecasting techniques consist of nowcasting, Numerical Weather Prediction and statistical methods, and this chapter provides an introduction to these approaches. The related topics of data assimilation, forecast verification and post-processing of outputs are also discussed.
Kevin Sene

Chapter 5. Hydrological Forecasting

Hydrological modelling techniques include rainfall-runoff and flow routing models and simpler statistical approaches. Additional components may be required to represent specific features of a catchment such as reservoirs and lakes. For real-time use, models are typically operated within an automated forecasting system which controls the gathering of data, scheduling of model runs and data assimilation. This chapter presents an introduction to these topics and to the general issues of forecast verification and probabilistic and ensemble flow forecasting.
Kevin Sene

Chapter 6. Demand Forecasting

Estimates for water abstractions are often required in hydrological forecasting applications. In some cases, the raw or treated water is returned to the river system, whilst other demands represent a permanent loss. The main approaches used for estimating withdrawals are either to consider individual users or to aggregate values using methods such as regression relationships, econometric approaches and data-driven techniques. This chapter presents an introduction to these topics with examples in the areas of water supply, irrigation and power generation. This includes a discussion of microcomponent approaches, crop simulation models and hydro-scheduling.
Kevin Sene

Chapter 7. Forecast Interpretation

Ensemble and deterministic flow forecasts provide information to support decision-making in a range of applications. However, to be operationally useful, forecasts need to be presented in terms which are meaningful to the end user and delivered in time to take effective action. Some tools which are used as part of this process include thresholds, decision support systems and risk-based techniques. This chapter describes the background to these approaches and provides examples for a range of flood warning, reservoir and other applications.
Kevin Sene

Selected Applications

Frontmatter

Chapter 8. River Flooding

Flood forecasting models are a key component in many flood warning systems. Some typical forecasting techniques include rainfall-runoff, flow routing and hydrodynamic models and simpler empirical approaches such as level-to-level correlations. Models are usually operated within a forecasting system which gathers data, schedules model runs and post-processes model outputs into forecast products. Data assimilation and probabilistic techniques are also widely used to help to improve the accuracy of forecasts and estimate the uncertainty in outputs. This chapter provides an introduction to these topics and to approaches to forecasting snowmelt in colder regions and water levels in estuaries.
Kevin Sene

Chapter 9. Flash Floods

Flash floods are one of the most destructive types of natural hazards. The main threat arises from the speed with which they develop and the depth and power of the resulting flows. Similar risks arise from related phenomena such as debris flows, ice jams, surface water (or pluvial) flooding, dam breaks and levee failures. Perhaps the most comprehensive way to provide warnings is to install gauges both at and upstream of areas at risk and to use the outputs from forecasting models to help to extend warning lead times. However, where this is not feasible, other options include heavy rainfall warnings, flash flood guidance techniques and region-wide distributed rainfall-runoff models. This chapter provides an introduction to these topics and to community-based approaches to flood warning.
Kevin Sene

Chapter 10. Droughts

Droughts are often classified in terms of their meteorological, hydrological, groundwater, agricultural or socioeconomic impacts. Some forecasting challenges include the slow onset and wide spatial variability of events and the choice of criteria for issuing alerts. Modelling approaches range from simple empirical techniques through to integrated catchment models driven by rainfall observations and forecasts. At longer timescales, statistical and probabilistic techniques are widely used together with drought indices. This chapter presents an introduction to these techniques together with examples of warning systems for streamflow and agricultural droughts.
Kevin Sene

Chapter 11. Flow Control

Hydraulic structures such as dams, weirs and barrages are widely used to manage flows and control river levels. This chapter provides an introduction to techniques for forecasting the impacts of structure operations ranging from real-time applications to long-term planning studies. This includes a discussion of the role of ensemble techniques and decision support systems. Two specific applications are also discussed in more detail, namely the operation of tidal barrages and real-time control systems for urban drainage networks.
Kevin Sene

Chapter 12. Environmental Impacts

Water quality forecasting models are increasingly used to help with issuing pollution alerts and developing longer-term management strategies for rivers, lakes and reservoirs. Typically the functionality in flow forecasting models is extended to represent the transport of chemical or biological constituents as required. Sediment and thermal pollution issues sometimes need to be considered and ecological forecasting techniques are actively under development. This chapter provides an introduction to these topics including examples of approaches to forecasting bathing water quality issues and the spread of harmful algal blooms.
Kevin Sene

Chapter 13. Water Resources

To forecast the availability of water in a catchment or region, many factors may need to be considered such as reservoir operations and water demands from a range of users. Water balance techniques are typically used to assess supply and demand together with integrated catchment models for operational forecasting. Distributed models are also increasingly used at a regional scale, particularly for climate change projections. Forecast outputs are often probabilistic, particularly for seasonal and longer timescales. This chapter presents an introduction to these techniques including the topics of seasonal flow forecasting and integrated water resources management.
Kevin Sene

Backmatter

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