20. Impact of Climate Change on Temperate Fruit Production in Kashmir Valley, North Western Himalayan Region of India – Challenges, Opportunities and Way Forward

Over the past few decades, anthropogenic changes in the climate of the earth have become the focus of scientific and social attention. The entire temperate western Himalayan region extending from Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Uttrakhand has a unique and fragile eco-system, where the very sustenance and livelihood of more than 75 percent of people is dependent on agriculture and draws about 60 percent of its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) from the surrounding ecological resources. The temperate climate in this area makes this region unique and offers tremendous opportunities to produce high quality fruits like apple, peach, plum, almonds, apricot, walnut etc. and of high value off season vegetables and ornamental crops. But in the recent decades, the annual mean temperature of Kashmir valley has increased significantly. Accelerated warming has been observed during 1980–2014, with intense warming in the recent years (2001–2014). During the period 1980–2014, steeper increase in annual mean maximum temperature than annual mean minimum temperature has been observed. In addition, mean maximum temperature in plain regions has shown higher rate of increase when compared with mountainous areas. In case of mean minimum temperature, mountainous regions have shown higher rate of increase. Analysis of precipitation data for the same period shows a decreasing trend with mountainous regions having the highest rate of decrease which can be quite hazardous for the fragile mountain environment of the Kashmir valley housing a large number of glaciers. Increased temperature is affecting vernalization of these high chill requiring fruits like apple, pear, walnut apricot almond and cherries leading to slow growth in production and productivity especially in rain fed areas. In addition,with due to erratic and extreme weather conditions, all kinds of pome and stone fruits are getting heavily damaged and quite often there is a coincidence of snowfall and flowering in most of the fruit and nut crops resulting in severe frost injury and in some cases the higher average temperature during winter inducing early bloom and maturity. The impact of fluctuation in temperature change is so much that most apple and almond trees sprout 2–3 weeks earlier instead of their normal sprout in mid March and April respectively. Frequency of natural disasters like drought, floods and strong winds in some areas has also increased. Cherries are also fast disappearing from their traditional growing areas of Kashmir valley. The diseases like Alternaria leaf spot and scab in apple, gummosis in stone fruits and nuts have become severe. The aphid attack is occurring approximately two weeks earlier under increased temperature. The red mite, white grub and scale insects have emerged seriously in almost all crops impacting productivity and quality of the produce. In the light of changing climate, there is a need to develop climate resilient varieties where crop architecture and physiology may be genetically altered to adapt to changing environmental conditions. At the same time, measures need to be taken for mitigation of the climate change both at local, regional and state level with equal and proactive participation of all stake holders including, farmers, scientific community and administrators of the line/ field department. This chapter aims to discuss about the recent trends of climate change and its impact on temperate fruit crops. Some of adaptive and mitigation strategies to combat the ill effects of climate change on temperate fruit crops have also been discussed.