India: Climate Change Impacts, Mitigation and Adaptation in Developing Countries

Inhaltsverzeichnis

1. Frontmatter

2. Chapter 1. New Challenges on Natural Resources and their Impact on Climate Change in the Indian Context

   Sunil Kumar Srivastava

   Abstract

   Global warming resulting from industrialization, excess consumption of fossil fuel, and agricultural activity is a new challenge for human civilization in the twenty-first century. The impact of global warming in the melting of glaciers and the rise in sea level is being observed worldwide (Ayala A, Farias-Barahona D, Huss M, Pellicciotti F, McPhee J, Farinotti D. 2020. Cryosphere 14:2005. doi:10.5194/tc-14-2005-2020). India is a developing country suffering from excess human population and a lack of awareness among the people regarding the impact of global warming on human civilization. India has started various remedial measures to minimize the emission of greenhouse gases. It has launched various schemes to promote the production of renewable sources of energy (solar energy, wind energy, geothermal energy, tidal energy, hydroelectric energy, and biomass energy) on a large scale as well as on a small scale in rural areas. The government of India has promoted numerous steps to resolve global warming and climate change. They have facilitated the production of renewable sources of energy on a major scale so that consumption of fossil fuel is minimized, which helps reduce carbon load in the atmosphere. India has also taken steps to fix carbon by increasing plantation. It has been shown that forest and tree cover in the country has increased from 14% in 1950–1951 to 24.01% in 2011–2012. India is a country with a rich diversity of socioeconomic conditions, geography, and climate: hence, the implementation of a uniform policy throughout the country is always challenging. A policy on a small scale (zone-wise) is needed so that the diversity of socioeconomic conditions, geography, and climate is considered seriously in polices. Hence, it is essential that every section of society also participates to resolve these issues and to cooperate with policies implemented by the government of India.

3. Chapter 2. Regional Assessment of Impacts of Climate Change: A Statistical Downscaling Approach

   Nagraj S. Patil, Rajashekhar S. Laddimath

   Abstract

   Water resource sectors are impacted by industrialization, urbanization, and climate change, making these vital resources more vulnerable and posing substantial challenges to water resources planners. Climate change significantly impacts agricultural production, and water will be a major constraint in the future for food production. Developing countries such as India are more vulnerable, and the ramification of climate change on rain-fed agriculture areas has been affecting the rural population because of their great dependency on agriculture for their livelihood. For understanding how the changes in cardinal and sensitive climate variables such as temperature and precipitation will affect natural resources, and for developing management policies for mitigation and adaption strategies, regional-scale assessments are crucial. This chapter showcases regional assessment of the impacts of climate change by the statistical downscaling technique, the Change Factor method, using the CMIP-5 General Circulation Model data in India with a case study in Bhima sub-basin. Spatial cross-correlation of maximum temperature and precipitation across the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) gauge grids was captured adequately, and the downscaling satisfactorily captured the cross-correlation between rainfall grids of Bhima sub-basin. Future projections reports, average daily maximum temperature and rainfall are likely to increase in response to climate change under different representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios, with maximum changes in RCP 8.5.

4. Chapter 3. Flood Risk Assessment for a Medium Size City Using Geospatial Techniques with Integrated Flood Models

   Surendar Natarajan, Nisha Radhakrishnan

   Abstract

   Flood is defined as the high stage of a river that flows across the river banks. Floods are classified based upon the nature of the occurrence, usually as riverine floods, urban floods, lake fluctuations, and rise of sea level. Factors responsible for floods are topography, rainfall intensity, climate change, and improper design of drainage facilities. In this study, we discuss urban flooding, because urban flooding usually differs from other types of flooding where the increase in flood peaks of 1.8 to 8 fold results in flood volume up to 6 fold. An urban peak flood occurs quickly as compared to other types of floods. In urban region the factors responsible for high peak discharge are land use/land cover (LULC) changes, climate change, and increase in rainfall intensity within a given duration. The recent floods in major cities in India have raised the awareness for flood modeling studies. In India, most flood modeling studies are done for major urban river basins passing through cities, but for this study the Koraiyar River basin that passes through the medium-sized city of Tiruchirappalli in South India was chosen. The parameter adopted for analyzing flood volume in this basin is LULC and its impact on urban surface runoff. LULC changes and their impact on surface runoff are studied by integrating remote sensing and geographic information systems (GIS) with hydrologic HEC-HMS (Hydrologic Engineering Centre-Hydrologic Modeling System) and hydraulic HEC-RAS (Hydrologic Engineering Centre-River Analysis System). Runoff is generated by using LULC, slope, hydrologic soil group, curve number (CN) maps, and rainfall intensity. The overall performance of the hydrologic model during calibration was satisfactory, based on the Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency criteria of with values of 0.5–0.6. The generated peak discharge is used for developing floodplain and hazard maps from 1986 to 2036. The floodplain and hazard maps estimate flood depth and risk in the basin area for changing LULC conditions of different return periods. Flood plain and hazard maps of 2, 5, 10, 50, and 100 years return periods were generated to identify flood extent and hazard level in the basin. The developed maps are used as a tool for effective flood forecasting and warning of flood hazards in the basin.

5. Chapter 4. Impact of Climate Change and Adaptation Strategies for Fruit Crops

   Tanmoy Sarkar, Anirban Roy, Sanvar Mal Choudhary, S. K. Sarkar

   Abstract

   The long life cycles of fruit crops causes these crops to be more challenged under stress as compared to crops of shorter duration that have more adaptation potential toward ending the crop cycle as quickly as possible. The inherent potential of these plants, aside from environmental challenges, maintains a viable production chain involving various strategies for plant management, including plant breeding activities exploiting variations. Genetic control of various traits to keep crops thriving in adverse situations allows better plant variety selections. Exploitation of available natural spontaneous and induced variations and selection based on easy phenotyping protocols provide short-duration annual crop species such as climate-responsive fruit crop varieties. Because both biotic and abiotic stresses are becoming unpredictably more frequent, interventions using recently developed biotechnological information, such as genomic data, can be a boon for climate-smart fruit crop development.

6. Chapter 5. Evaluating Adaptation Strategies to Coastal Multihazards in Sundarban Biosphere Reserve, India, Using Composite Adaptation Index: A Household-Level Analysis

   Mehebub Sahana, Sufia Rehman, Shyamal Dutta, Samsad Parween, Raihan Ahmed, Haroon Sajjad

   Abstract

   Coastal areas are experiencing greater risk because of the increased frequency of multiple climate change-induced hazards. Thus, identification of suitable adaptation strategies for local communities has become imperative for lessening the impact of climate change. Although a large number of studies have touched upon the different components of vulnerability to coastal hazards, adaptation assessment has remained underemphasized in the existing literature. This paper assesses adaptation strategies to multiple coastal hazards in Sundarban Biosphere Reserve (SBR), India. We collected socioeconomic data and responses on adaptation strategies opted for extreme climate events, economic activities, and coping mechanism from 570 households in the Reserve. Factor analysis was utilized to identify the significant adaptation strategies opted by the sampled households. This analysis provided 14 significant adaptation strategies, explaining around 66% of the total variation among 45 adaptation strategies pursued by the households. Correlation was performed to establish the relationship between socioeconomic characteristics of the households and adaptation strategies. A composite adaptation index was then constructed using principal component analysis (PCA) to ascertain the level of adaptation. Findings revealed very high adaptation in Kakdwip, Kultali, Sagar, Patharpratima, Namkhana, and Gosaba blocks and a high degree of adaptation was observed in Hingalganj and Basanti blocks of the SBR. These blocks are located along the coast and are frequently impacted by coastal hazards. The blocks connected to the mainland are less affected by the disasters and have moderate or low levels of adaptation. The adaptive measures should target group-oriented prioritizing of the vulnerable areas and communities. Livelihood diversification and provision of basic amenities and facilities may lessen vulnerability in the SBR. The principal component-based adaptation index analysis helped in understanding the relationship between climatic adaptation strategies and the socioeconomic condition of the coastal community.

7. Chapter 6. Impact of Climate Change on Groundwater Resource of India: A Geographical Appraisal

   Sutapa Mukhopadhyay, Amit Kumar Mandal

   Abstract

   The inherent advantages of consistent temperature, widespread availability, decentralized access, limited vulnerability, outstanding natural quality, low extraction cost, and drought protection capacity as well as fluctuation in seasonal availability, result in monsoonal rainfall uses of groundwater in the domestic and agricultural sectors of India to be ever increasing. The rapid growth of groundwater-based irrigation systems in the past 50 years has multiplied groundwater extraction in India, resulting in its overexploitation. Recent study has revealed that climate change leads to the altered precipitation and evapotranspiration rate of the country, so it may be considered as tan additional major threat to this resource. Hence, understanding the behavior and dimensions of the groundwater regime under future climatic and other changes is significant in adopting an accurate water management strategy. This review presents an outline of the groundwater resource base of India and its susceptibility to ongoing and future trends of changes in climatic variables.

8. Chapter 7. Comparison of Classical Mann–Kendal Test and Graphical Innovative Trend Analysis for Analyzing Rainfall Changes in India

   Tapash Mandal, Apurba Sarkar, Jayanta Das, A. T. M. Sakiur Rahman, Pradip Chouhan

   Abstract

   The analysis of rainfall trends is of the utmost importance for sustainable management and planning of agriculture and water resources under changing climate. Therefore, this study aims to detect the long-term rainfall trends of 36 meteorological subdivisions of India for the period 1901–2015. The graphical innovative trend analysis (ITA) technique and the classical statistical Mann–Kendall (MK) or modified Mann–Kendall (mMK) tests are used to detect historical rainfall changes. The nonparametric Sen’s slope (Q) estimator is also applied to measure the magnitude of change. The ITA results show about 61.11% of the subdivisions exhibited decreasing trends in annual rainfall. On the seasonal scale, about 58.33%, 50%, 69.44%, and 88.88% of the subdivisions are experiencing decreasing trends in pre-monsoon (Mar–May), monsoon (Jun–Sep), post-monsoon (Oct–Nov), and winter (Dec–Feb) seasons, respectively. The results of the Z statistic show a good match (about 90%) with the graphical ITA method. However, the ITA method is able to detect subtrends while, MK/mMK shows only the monotonic trend. Such a trend analysis of rainfall can provide significant information that will be useful to build up adaptive capacity and community resilience against climate change. This study can be helpful for regional-scale planning about pre and post-disaster floods, drought mitigation, and agricultural development.

9. Chapter 8. Forest Phenology as an Indicator of Climate Change: Impact and Mitigation Strategies in India

   Priyanshi Tiwari, Pramit Verma, A. S. Raghubanshi

   Abstract

   Forests are an integral part of the terrestrial ecosystem, maintaining the biodiversity, carbon flux, and ecosystem services and even supporting livelihoods. Rampant exploitation of forest resources has resulted in deforestation and the loss of associated benefits. It is estimated that deforestation accounts for 11% of global carbon emissions. Their role in carbon sequestration has helped international bodies to create programmes such as reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD+). The phenomena of climate change adversely affect the functioning of forest species: it changes the timing of their flowering and fruiting habits, and brings about changes in the ecophysiology of the species. However, such changes depend on the species and the climatic conditions to a large extent. Phenology, the temporal order of the annual cycle of plant functions, is quite sensitive to the changes in climate. In this chapter we have explored the relationships between climate change and its impact on tree phenology, and mitigation and adaptation strategies. Some species may tend to exhibit a certain amount of resilience against climate change.

10. Chapter 9. Assessment of Stream Flow Impact on Physicochemical Properties of Water and Soil in Forest Hydrology Through Statistical Approach

    Malabika Biswas Roy, Pankaj Kumar Roy, Sudipa Halder, Gourab Banerjee, Asis Mazumdar

    Abstract

    Forests affect the hydrology of watersheds in various ways with different hydrological parameters such as evapotranspiration, infiltration, intercepting cloud moisture, surface runoff, and groundwater. Sikkim, a part of northeastern India, a hilly area, is basically a critical terrain condition, and collection of secondary and primary data might be a challenging task to assess overall impacts, particularly on hydrological services. Three micro-watersheds, categorized as undisturbed, semidisturbed, and disturbed catchments covering a distance of 12 km at Geyzing, located in West Sikkim, were selected for this research work. Hydro-meteorological instruments were installed and recorded data for 4 years in three micro-watersheds to monitor the impact of forest cover on stream discharge and water quality. A composite rectangular weir was installed at field level to accommodate measuring stream discharge during the monsoon period as well as the pre-monsoon period. Water and soil quality parameters were analyzed during the monsoon as well as the pre-monsoon period. The overall impact of forests on the hydrological regime of a watershed is twofold. First, comparatively less discharge from a forest watershed during the rainy months shows that the forest controls excess runoff downstream. Second, forests induce infiltration, which leads to more uniform flow all year from the dense forest watershed stream. Conversions to forestland would have the potential to reduce erosion and subsequent sedimentation, as well as reduce levels of nutrients and pesticides in surface runoff and groundwater. These improvements in water quality can be a function of lower amounts of runoff and leaching as well as lower concentrations of potential pollutants.

11. Chapter 10. Impact of Climate Extremes of El Nina and La Nina in Patterns of Seasonal Rainfall over Coastal Karnataka, India

    A. Stanley Raj, B. Chendhoor

    Abstract

    This research investigates the influence of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the rainfall characteristics of coastal Karnataka. An attempt has been made to study the behavior of rainfall in every season during an ENSO along the coast of Karnataka. Rainfall data from 1901 to 2017 have been used for studying the patterns. Rainfall variations occur with El Nino and La Nina events, which are based on sea surface temperature (SST), taking place in the Pacific Ocean along the Equator. The Southern Oscillation is like a pendulum, in which El Nino takes place in one side (west) and La Nina takes place along the other side (east), and vice versa. Its major cause is the trade winds that move from east to west, especially in Ecuador, Peru, and South America. By correlating the rainfall data and El Nino, the effects along the coast of Karnataka can be identified. As El Nino and La Nina have major impacts on agriculture, food supply, and the economy of the country, it is necessary to study the patterns and influence of rainfall. This study shows that La Nina has a major impact on coastal Karnataka, bringing more rainfall than El Nino.

12. Chapter 11. Geothermal Energy and Climate Change Mitigation

    Kriti Yadav, Anirbid Sircar, Apurwa Yadav

    Abstract

    The energy sector in the world needs major changes for reduction in greenhouse gas emission and climate change mitigation. It has been believed that with the current rate in increase of greenhouse gas emissions a rise in sea levels will occur with changes in global climate patterns. These effects hinder adaptation for climate change mitigation, so it is important to incorporate and understand the models implemented in the energy sector for decarbonisation. According to this perspective, the geothermal resource is contemplated as being one of the most productive energy sources that can be adopted for control of greenhouse gas emissions. The purpose of this study is to understand the global status of geothermal energy and its important role in climate change mitigation. In this chapter it is seen how geothermal energy has been used for centuries for heat extraction and power generation in geothermal countries such as the USA, New Zealand, Iceland, Kenya, and the Philippines, with minimal greenhouse gas emission with respect to fossil fuels. In the present study, the GeoAdam method of geothermal climate change mitigation is also discussed and modified in terms of scenario setup, assessment stage, and implementation stage. This method can be used for the climate change mitigation process in India with geothermal energy. The life cycle assessment of a system, which is an important factor to understand and control greenhouse gas emission, is reviewed in detail here. The present study provides a complete guide for climate change mitigation with geothermal energy.

13. Chapter 12. Trends and Pattern of Rainfall over Semiarid Sahibi Basin in Rajasthan, India

    Manpreet Chahal, Pankaj Bhardwaj, Omvir Singh

    Abstract

    Study of the spatial and temporal trends of rainfall is very important for water resources planning and management. Therefore, this study has been attempted to examine the spatial and temporal trends and pattern of rainfall over the semiarid Sahibi Basin in Rajasthan State of India for a period of 57 years (1961–2017). Rainfall data for nine stations located over the basin have been obtained from the Department of Water Resources, Rajasthan. Statistical methods such as Mann–Kendall test, Sen’s slope estimator, and linear regression were employed to detect the rainfall trends. Percent change for rainfall, and years of excess and deficient rainfall, have also been identified. The findings have shown high interannual variability in mean annual rainfall with an average of 633.95 mm (SD = 204.93, CV = 32.33). However, no significant rising or declining trend has been observed in the mean annual rainfall over the basin during the 57-year period, whereas Kotkasim and Tapukara stations have shown significant increasing and decreasing trends, respectively. Further, pre-monsoon season rainfall has shown a significant increasing trend. Spatial analysis has shown an increase in rainfall amount from northeastern and western parts to the southeast. The observed spatial and temporal differences in the amount of rainfall are high. These results may be valuable for efficient and sustainable planning and management of water resources for agricultural purposes in the basin.