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Erschienen in: Political Behavior 3/2018

20.06.2017 | Original Paper

Individual Autonomy and Local-Level Solidarity in Africa

verfasst von: Jeffrey Conroy-Krutz

Erschienen in: Political Behavior | Ausgabe 3/2018

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Abstract

Come election time, many localities in Africa seem to speak with one voice. Vote totals often suggest near-unanimity within villages and neighborhoods, even when national-level results demonstrate greater competitiveness. However, there is substantial variation in the electoral solidarity of local communities, with some demonstrating significantly less cohesion than others. Few if any scholars have tried to explain this variation. I theorize that solidarity levels are largely a function of community members' abilities to act autonomously. Namely, communities will be more likely to vote en bloc when residents are less able to resist pressures from local elites, who often act as brokers for national politicians, due to elite-empowering land-tenure regimes, poverty, and information scarcity. I test this theory with data from Uganda, which displays significant variation in local-level electoral solidarity. I find that electoral solidarity is lower in communities where freehold land arrangements are more common, living standards are higher, and mass media (i.e., radio signals) are more accessible.

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1
All data and code for replication available at journal’s Dataverse page.
 
2
Covering ninety-seven elections. Source: African Elections Database (http://​africanelections​.​tripod.​com). First-round results used in multi-round systems.
 
3
Covering 175 elections, from forty countries.
 
4
I define local elite broadly. These individuals can include so-called traditional leaders (e.g., chiefs), as well as religious leaders (e.g., marabouts) and others who gain authority by dint of their economic, military, or political success.
 
5
Elites often utilize what Weber called “traditional” or “charismatic authority” to underpin edicts. For example, Senegalese marabouts historically issued ndigels (political instructions) (Beck 2008; Behrman 1970; O’Brien 1971). However, control over resources–marabouts’ authority was partially rooted in their status as chefs de terre–is essential.
 
6
In addition, communities might vote en bloc according to the endorsements of chiefs because they fear that not doing so will disrupt traditional leaders’ abilities to procure local public goods (Baldwin 2013). Under such a scenario, members of wealthier communities might be more willing to buck local elites’ edicts, because any consequent loss of goods will not be as detrimental to them.
 
7
I focus on presidential elections because the president is considered the most-important office in most African countries (van de Walle 2003). Further, studying variation in electoral solidarity in parliamentary or local contests within one country would be complicated by the fact that the number of candidates varies from location to location–in 2001, the number of candidates for directly elected Members of Parliament in Uganda ranged from 1 to 9.
 
8
Freedom House rated the country as “partly free” in 2001.
 
9
Figures do not add to 100%, because some households did not report their LTR.
 
10
The Cronbach’s alpha is .88. Alternate measures of wealth, such as income and “lived poverty,” are not available in the census data. Measures such as materials used in housing and fuels used for cooking are available and can indicate wealth. However, the availability of these materials varies geographically, and I thus utilized measures that were unequivocal indicators of wealth, regardless of geographic context.
 
11
In the first Afrobarometer round (2000)–which was conducted most proximate to the election studied here–76% of Ugandans accessed radio at least several times a week, while numbers for television (13%) and newspaper (27%) were considerably lower.
 
12
Lists collected from the Uganda Communications Commission (UCC). To determine stations’ precise start dates, I contacted media-monitoring agencies, academics, journalists, and station managers, and accessed news stories. As discussed later, there are eight stations that were established sometime in 2001, but for which specific dates could not be ascertained, and there are seven that were founded sometime before 2006, but for which launch years were not available. These stations are excluded from the main analyses, although results are robust to their inclusion (Appendix D).
 
13
Others–Mbale (3), Arua (2), Fort Portal (2), Gulu (2), Kabale (2), and Soroti (2)–had in the low single digits, and a number, including Apac, Bugiri, Hoima, Kamuli, Kasese, Masindi, and Rukungiri, had only one station.
 
14
For uses by social scientists, see Bhavnani 2013; Crabtree et al. 2015; Durante et al. 2013; Olken 2009; Yanagizawa-Drott 2014.
 
16
Data from the Earth Resources Observation and Science Center of the US Geological Survey (http://​eros.​usgs.​gov/​).
 
17
A free performance-prediction software, available at www.​cplus.​org/​rmw/​.
 
19
Indicates decibel ratio referenced to a microvolt per meter.
 
20
All groups are not politically relevant nationally. However, a simple measure of fractionalization is initially ideal for two reasons. First, politicians from larger groups might appeal to voters from small ones on ethnic bases. Second, identities not relevant nationally are often salient locally; this might especially be the case in formally decentralized countries like Uganda (Green 2008).
 
21
In most cases, one parish (i.e., the “parent”) retained its original name, with a new parish carved from the original given another name.
 
22
Variance inflation factors do not indicate likely issues of multicollinearity. However, the fitted coefficients of two pairs–Mailo LTR and Customary LTR, and Born in District and Ethnic Fractionalization–are moderately correlated (.57 and .51, respectively). I therefore generate a new variable (Customary Global), which sums mailo and customary shares for each parish, and then re-run the main model, excluding Born in District. The main results are robust, and the coefficient on Customary Global is positive and significant (at p<.001). However, the coefficient on Ethnic Fractionalization is no longer significant (Appendix C).
 
23
This measure treats all public stations as part of the same network. For other measures of station and network accessibility, see Appendix D.
 
24
Of course, any relationship between local public goods and solidarity might be endogenous; distributors might target goods to persuade voters in divided areas, or to reward voters in high-loyalty ones. Also, local public goods might have been created, or discontinued, between the election and the census.
 
25
For example, Carbone (2008) reports that malpractice was apparently more common in areas with hotly contested parliamentary races in 2001.
 
26
I exclude stations where a candidate received zero votes, since including such stations would inflate the number of zeros in the candidate’s distribution. This means that the test cannot be conducted on candidates aside from Besigye and Museveni, since those candidates frequently received zero votes at stations.
 
27
Museveni performed equally well in polling stations where the number of registered voters ended in 0 (.66) and where they did not (.67) (t = .48, p = .63), as did Besigye (.28 in stations with totals of registered voters ending in 0, vs. .27 elsewhere) (t = .41, p = .69).
 
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Metadaten
Titel
Individual Autonomy and Local-Level Solidarity in Africa
verfasst von
Jeffrey Conroy-Krutz
Publikationsdatum
20.06.2017
Verlag
Springer US
Erschienen in
Political Behavior / Ausgabe 3/2018
Print ISSN: 0190-9320
Elektronische ISSN: 1573-6687
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11109-017-9415-7

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