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2017 | OriginalPaper | Buchkapitel

12. Indonesia: Rowing Between Two Reefs Once More

verfasst von : Enrico Fels

Erschienen in: Shifting Power in Asia-Pacific?

Verlag: Springer International Publishing

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Abstract

Among the six middle powers identified in the cluster analysis, Indonesia has the weakest claim to be included. The country only made the grouping for the final year of the analysis (2012). It is thus important to be particularly careful and take a closer look at Indonesia’s standing following the three criteria identified by the discussion of the middle power literature.

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Vorheriges Kapitel Thailand: Bending with the Wind Again?

Nächstes Kapitel Conclusion: Does ‘Rising’ in Power Equate to ‘Shifting’ of Power?

Magnis-Suseno, Franz (2013): ‘Indonesia’s Challenge: Making Democracy Succeed’, in: Heise, Matthias/Rucktäschel, Kathrin (eds.): Indonesia’s Search for Democracy. Political, Economic and Social Developments. Baden-Baden: Nomos, pp. 23–36.

US Department of State (2015a): ‘US Relations with Indonesia’, Factsheet by the Bureau of East Asian and Pacific Affairs, 5th February 2015, http://www.state.gov/r/pa/ei/bgn/2748.htm (02.02.2015).

Murphy, Ann Marie (2010): ‘US Rapprochement with Indonesia: From Problem State to Partner’, Contemporary Southeast Asia, Vol. 32, No. 3, pp. 362–387, p. 364.

Murphy, Ann Marie (2009): ‘Indonesia Returns to the International Stage: Good News for the United States’, Orbis, Vol. 53, No. 1, pp. 65–79, p. 77.

Murphy (2010): 367.

Ibid.

Zavadjil quoted in Schonhardt, Sara (2010c): ‘BRIC ambitions for Indonesia’, Asia Times Online, 02 September 2010, http://atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/LI02Df05.html (06.02.2015).

Ziegenhain, Patrick (2012): ‘Wirtschaftswunderland mit Defiziten. Mit Optimismus und Altlasten in die Zukunft’, IP Länderportrait, November/December 2012, pp. 5–13.

Bünte, Marco (2012): ‘Primus Inter Pares. Regionale Verantwortung und Globale Initiativen’, IP Länderportrait, November/December 2012, pp. 18–23, p. 23.

Buiter, Willem/Rahbari, Ebrahim (2011): ‘Global Growth Generators: Moving Beyond ‘Emerging Markets’ and ‘BRICS”, Citigroup Global Markets, 21st February 2011.

Cutler, Robert M. (2012): ‘Indonesia, Malaysia beat growth expectations’, Asia Times Online, 25 February 2012.

ADB (2010): Key Indicators for Asia and the Pacific. Special Chapter: The Rise of Asia’s Middle Class. August 2010, p. 11f, http://beta.adb.org/publications/key-indicators-asia-and-pacific-2010 (04.03.2012).

See Schonhardt (2010c) on these points.

Cutler (2012).

Novotny, Daniel (2010): Torn between America and China. Elite Perceptions and Indonesian Foreign Policy. Singapore: ISEAS Publishing, p. 281.

Widodo, Bangkit Rahmat Tri (2013): ‘Indonesia’s Peacekeeping Missions Within the ‘Independent and Active Foreign Policy”, in: Heise, Matthias/Rucktäschel, Kathrin (eds.): Indonesia’s Search for Democracy. Political, Economic and Social Developments. Baden-Baden: Nomos, pp. 143–161.

Acharya, Amitav (2014): ‘Insight: The Obama Doctrine and Indonesia’, The Jakarta Post, 27th June 2014, http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2014/06/27/insight-the-obama-doctrine-and-indonesia.html (06.02.2015).

Tan, Paige Johnson (2007): ‘Navigating a Turbulent Ocean: Indonesia’s Worldview and Foreign Policy’, Asian Perspective, Vol. 31, No. 3, pp. 147–181, p. 149.

Laskmana, Evan A. (2011): ‘Indonesia’s Rising Regional and Global Profile: Does Size Really Matter?’, Contemporary Southeast Asia, Vol. 33, No. 2, pp. 157–182, pp. 177f.

D-8 (2015): ‘Brief History of D-8’, http://www.developing8.org/About.aspx/ (06.02.2015).

See Oxford Analytica (2010): ‘Australia/Indonesia: Relations are on an upward curve’, OxResearch Daily Brief Service, 05th April 2010.

Graham, Euan (2013): ‘Southeast Asia in the US Rebalance: Perceptions from a Divided Region’, Contemporary Southeast Asia, Vol. 35, No. 3, pp. 305–332, p. 323.

Murphy, Ann Marie (2014): ‘Indonesia Responds to China’s Rise’, in Gilley, Bruce/O’Neil, Andrew (2014): ‘China’s Rise Through the Prism of Middle Powers’, in: Gilley, Bruce/O’Neil, Andrew (eds.): Middle Powers and the Rise of China. Washington: Georgetown University Press, pp. 126–148, p. 128.

Murphy (2010): 380. It should be noted that Indonesia is also among the top ten strongest emitters of greenhouse gases.

Sebastian, Leonard C./Iisgindarsah (2012): ‘Taking Stock of Military Reform in Indonesia’, in: Rüland, Jürgen/Manea, Maria-Gabriela/Born, Hans (eds.): The Politics of Military Reform. Experiences from Indonesia and Nigeria. Berlin and Heidelberg: Springer, pp. 29–56.

See Defence Intelligence Organisation (2010): Defence Economic Trends in the Asia Pacific 2010. www.defence.gov.au/dio/documents/DET_10.pdf (29.02.2012).

Jane’s (2012): ‘Indonesia’, Jane’s World Armies, 29th February 2012, http://articles.janes.com/articles/Janes-World-Armies/Indonesia-Indonesia.html (29.02.2012).

Sukma, Rizal (2010): ‘Indonesia’s Security Outlook, Defence Policy and Regional Cooperation’, in: The National Institute of Defense Studies (ed.): Asia Pacific Countries’ Security Outlook and its Implication for the Defence Sector. NIDS Joint Research Series, No. 5, pp. 3–24, p. 14. http://www.nids.go.jp/english/publication/joint_research/series5/series5.html (29.02.2012).

Sebastian and Iisgindarsah (2012): 43 and 47.

Sebastian and Iisgindarsah: 51.

Sipri (2015).

McBeth, John (2012): ‘Arms-wrestling in Indonesia’, Asia Times Online, 28th January 2012, http://www.atimes.com/atimes/southeast_asia/na28ae01.html (29.02.2012).

Grevatt, Jon/Caffrey, Craig (2014): ‘Indonesia Increases Defence Budget 14%’, IHS Jane’s Defence Industry, 17th August 2014, http://www.janes.com/article/42069/indonesia-increases-defence-budget-14 (06.02.2015).

IISS (2015): 255.

Foss, Christopher F. (2014): ‘Tanks Roll Eastwards’, IHS Jane’s 360, 05. November 2014, http://www.janes.com/article/45412/tanks-roll-eastwards-id14d2 (06.02.2015).

Grevatt and Caffrey (2014). While purchasing different weapon systems from different supplier nations may seem short-sighted considering the additional logistical and maintenance costs, this behaviour reflects the bad experience Indonesia has had in the past as both the US and the Soviet Union used arms trade (or the denial of spare parts) in order to apply pressure on Jakarta.

IISS (2015): 208.

Assessments of Indonesia’s military capabilities in case of a conflict with a great power also have to take into account its traditional defence strategy of hankamrata (basically meaning total war of the people). There are almost 110 million Indonesians fit for military service (aged 16–49) and every year more than 4 million men and women enter this significant age. See CIA World Factbook (2012): ‘Indonesia’, https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/id.html (29.02.2012).

For the countries’ Cold War relations see Murphy (2010): 365 and Farid, Muhammad (2007): ‘How the Cold War Influenced US-Indonesia Relations’, The Jakarta Post, 02nd September 2007, http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2007/09/02/how-cold-war-influenced-usindonesia-relations.html-0 (06.02.2014).

Murphy (2010): 362.

Ibid.: 366.

N.N. (2010a): ‘Timeline: US-Indonesian Relations’, Contemporary Southeast Asia, Vol. 32, No. 3, pp. 395–398, p. 396.

ETAN (1997): ‘US Policy toward East Timor’, East Timor Action Network, 12th November 1997, http://etan.org/timor/uspolicy.htm (06.02.2015).

In 1994 the State Department initiated a band on selling small and light arms as well as riot control gear to Indonesia.

ETAN (1997) and Perkins, Kyle/Scheiner, Charles (1998): ‘Pentagon Documents Show Indonesian Military Training Continues Despite Congressional Ban’, ESTAFETA, Spring 1998, http://etan.org/estafeta/98/spring/ess8pent.htm (06.02.2014).

Cit. in Murphy (2010): 366.

Ibid. Despite Suharto’s official rejection, US Green Berets and US Marines continued their training with Indonesian security forces such as Kopassus (special forces, who are legally exempt from civil law jurisdiction and were deeply involved in many atrocities in East Timor, West Papua and other regions).

N.N. (2010a): 396.

Murphy (2010): 366.

See on the US influence towards democratization of Indonesia also Kivimäki, Timo (2000): ‘US-Indonesian Relations During the Economic Crisis: Where has Indonesia’s Bargaining Power Gone?’, Contemporary Southeast Asia, Vol. 22, No. 3, pp. 527–549.

Murphy (2010): 367f.

It is interesting to note that East Timor was annexed only hours after US president Gerald Ford and his advisor Henry Kissinger, who was Secretary of State at the time, had visited Jakarta. Both countries enjoyed a close security cooperation at the time and more than 90% of TNI’s weaponry came from US suppliers. While Washington never formally recognised Jakarta’s occupation of East Timor (which caused the death of at least 200,000 people—around one third of the country’s total population), the UN Commission for Reception, Truth and Reconciliation in East Timor concluded in 2006 that American “political and military support were fundamental to the Indonesian invasion and occupation […]. The support of the United States was given out of a strategically-motivated desire to maintain a good relationship with Indonesia, whose anti-communist regime was seen as an essential bastion against the spread of communism.” Cit. in Lynch, Colum (2006): ‘Report: US Arms Helped Indonesia Attack East Timor’, Washington Post, 25th January 2006, http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/01/24/AR2006012401688.html (06.02.2015).

Australian War Memorial (2012): ‘Australians and Peacekeeping’, http://www.awm.gov.au/atwar/peacekeeping.asp (06.02.2015) and Murphy (2010): 368.

Holland, Steve (1999): ‘Clinton Suspends US Military Sales to Indonesia’, Reuters, 11th September 1999, http://etan.org/et99b/September/5-11/11clinton.htm (06.02.2015).

McIntyre, Jamie/Rochelle, Carl (1999): ‘Clinton Warns Indonesia as US Severs Military Relations’, CNN, 9th September 1999, http://www.cnn.com/US/9909/09/us.east.timor/ (06.02.2014).

Lobe, Jim (2010): ‘US, Indonesia Retie a Controversial Knot’, Asia Times, 24th July 2010, http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Southeast_Asia/LG24Ae01.html (06.02.2015).

Cited in Murphy (2010): 368.

Ibid.: 369.

N.N. (2010a): 396f and ETAN (2000): ‘Background on East Timor and US Policy’, East Timor Action Network, May 2000, http://etan.org/timor/BkgMnu.htm (06.02.2015).

Amin Rais cited in Murphy (2010): 370.

International Crisis Group (2001): ‘Indonesian-US Military Ties’, Indonesia Briefing, 17th July 2001, http://www.crisisgroup.org/~/media/files/asia/south-east-asia/indonesia/indonesian%20us%20military%20ties.ashx (06.02.2015) and Berrigan, Frida (2001): ‘Indonesia at the Crossroads: US Weapons Sales and Military Training’, Special Report prepared by the Arms Trade Resource Center of the World Policy Institute, October 2001, http://www.worldpolicy.org/projects/arms/reports/indo101001.htm (06.02.2015).

Ibid.

N.N. (2010b): ‘Graphics: US-Indonesia Relations’, Contemporary Southeast Asia, Vol. 32, No. 3, pp. 399–408, pp. 406f.

Megawati, a former vice-president, came to power after Habibie’s successor from the 1999 election—Abdurrahman Wahid—was impeached due to corruption and related charges on 23 July 2001.

Embassy of the Republic of Indonesia (2015): ‘Bilateral Relations’, http://www.embassyofindonesia.org/wordpress/?page_id=516 (06.02.2015).

Seth, Sushil P. (2005): ‘Indonesia and the United States: A Reenergized Relationship’, The Jakarta Post, 15th December 2005, http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2005/12/15/indonesia-and-united-states-reenergized-relationship.html (06.02.2015).

Cited in Ba, Alice (2009): ‘Systemic Neglect? A Reconsideration of US Southeast Asia Policy’, Contemporary Southeast Asia, Vol. 31, No. 3, pp. 369–398, p. 377.

N.N. (2010a): 397. See also Megawati’s speech at the UN General Assembly: Wilkinson, Marian (2003): ‘Megawati Hits Out at US War on Terrorism’, Sydney Morning Herald, 25th September 2003, http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2003/09/24/1064083064573.html (06.02.2015).

Cited in Murphy (2010): 371. Note, however, that Megawati strongly condemned the terror attacks.

Ibid.

Smith, Anthony L. (2003): ‘A Glass Half Full: Indonesian-US Relations on the Age of Terror’, Contemporary Southeast Asia, Vol. 25, No. 3, pp. 449–472, pp. 449f.

N.N. (2010a): 397 and Murphy (2010): 374.

N.N. (2010b): 408.

Köckritz, Jan (2010): Der ‘Krieg gegen den Terrorismus’ an seiner ‘Zweiten Front’. Amerikanische Außen- und Sicherheitspolitk nach dem 11. September 2001 in Südostasien. Die Beispiele Indonesiens, Malaysias und der Philippinen. Baden-Baden: Nomos, p. 184.

N.N. (2010a): 397.

Haseman, John B. (2006): ‘US Resumes Full Military Relations With Indonesia’, Asia-Pacific Defence Reporter, December 2005–January 2006, pp. 50–51, p. 50.

Ibid.: 51.

N.N. (2010b): 405.

Murphy (2010): 375.

Ibid: 377.

Ibid.: 378.

Ibid.: 373.

Ibid.: 375. This statement, however, allegedly upset many Indonesians.

Pew Research (2014).

Murphy (2010): 375. See on Obama’s impact on US-Indonesian relations also Suryodiningrat, Meidyatama (2010): ‘US Rapprochement with Indonesia: From Problem State to Partner—A Response’, Contemporary Southeast Asia, Vol. 32, No. 3, pp. 388–394, pp. 392f. Note that even at the height of the ‘Obama fever’ there was also a considerable minority against actively working against the positive perception of Obama. See Schonhardt, Sara (2010a): ‘Obama Expectations Revised in Indonesia’, Asia Times, 4th February 2010, http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Southeast_Asia/LB04Ae01.html (06.02.2015).

(ac): 397. However, in this context Murphy strongly warns of falling for “the fallacy of the simplistic democracy cooperation thesis”. Murphy (2009): 75.

Cited in Limaye, Satu P. (2015): ‘Introduction: America’s Bilateral Relations with Southeast Asia—Constraints and Promise’, Contemporary Southeast Asia, Vol. 32, No. 3, pp. 309–316, p. 312.

Murphy (2010): 376.

Lugar, Richard N. (2010): ‘A New Road for Indonesia and the United States’, The Jakarta Post, 6th July 2010, http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2010/07/06/a-new-road-indonesia-and-united-states.html (06.02.2015).

Murphy (2010): 377.

N.N. (2010a): 397.

Cited in Schonhardt, Sara (2010b): ‘US, Indonesia in a Tentative Embrace’, Asia Times, 12th March 2010, http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Southeast_Asia/LC12Ae01.html (06.02.2015).

US Navy (2015): ‘US Naval Medical Research Unit No. 2, Pnom Penh’, http://www.med.navy.mil/sites/namru2pacific/Pages/default.aspx (06.02.2015).

Murphy (2010): 381.

The other areas addressed are democracy and civil society, education, energy, as well as environment and climate. See US Department of State (2013a): ‘United States-Indonesia Comprehensive Partnership’, 8th October 2013, http://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2013/10/215196.htm (06.02.2015).

The White House (2011a): ‘Fact Sheet United States-Indonesia Comprehensive Partnership’, 18th November 2011, http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2011/11/18/fact-sheet-united-states-indonesia-comprehensive-partnership (06.02.2015).

US Department of State (2013a).

US-ASEAN Business Council (2013): ‘Indonesia: US-Indonesia Commercial Dialogue’, https://www.usasean.org/countries/indonesia/us-indonesia-commercial-dialogue (06.02.2015).

100

IIP Digital (2011): ‘US-Indonesia Commercial Dialogue Helping to Expand Trade’, 15th December 2011, http://iipdigital.usembassy.gov/st/english/article/2011/12/20111215165925su0.6591715.html#axzz3R53lW1gQ (06.02.2015).

101

US Department of State (2013a).

102

The White House (2010): ‘Remarks by the President at the University of Indonesia in Jakarta, Indonesia’, 10th November 2010, http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2010/11/10/remarks-president-university-indonesia-jakarta-indonesia (06.02.2015).

103

Ibid.

104

Ibid.

105

The Jakarta Post (2010): ‘Full Transcript of Speeches During US President Obama’s State Visit in Indonesia, Nov. 9–10’, 10th November 2010, http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2010/11/10/full-transcripts-speeches-during-us-president-barack-obama039s-state-visit-indonesia (06.02.2015).

106

Ibid.

107

Ibid.

108

Finn, Tyler (2010): ‘Obama’s Mother to Receive Award in Indonesia’, CBS News, 26th February 2010, http://www.cbsnews.com/news/obamas-mother-to-receive-award-in-indonesia/ (06.02.2015).

109

Murphy (2010): 363.

110

DeSilva-Ranasighe (2013).

111

The White House (2011b): ‘Joint Statement by Obama, Indonesian President Yudhoyono’, 18th December 2011, http://iipdigital.usembassy.gov/st/english/texttrans/2011/11/20111118161851su0.1301037.html#axzz3R53lW1gQ (06.02.2015).

112

Barley, Tasa Nugraza (2012): ‘A Changing Indonesia in the Eyes of the United States’, The Jakarta Post, 16th September 2012, http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2012/09/16/a-changing-indonesia-eyes-united-states.html (06.02.2015).

113

Cited in: Lee, Peter (2011): ‘Southeast Asia Rises in US Reset’, Asia Times, 4th June 2011, http://atimes.com/atimes/Southeast_Asia/MF04Ae01.html (06.02.2015).

114

Ibid.

115

Parameswaran, Prashanth (2014): ‘Explaining US Strategic Partnerships in the Asia-Pacific Region: Origins, Developments and Prospects’, Contemporary Southeast Asia, Vol. 36, No. 2, pp. 262–289, p. 278

116

Novotny (2010): 253.

117

Cited in: The Jakarta Post (2011b): ‘New US base in RI’s backyard’, 17th November 2011, http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2011/11/17/new-us-base-ri-s-backyard.html (06.02.2015).

118

Ibid. Another Indonesian call for regional neutrality amidst Sino-US competition can be found here: Dewanto, Pamungkas A. (2010): ‘US-China Competition in Southeast Asia’, The Jakarta Post, 2nd December 2010, http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2010/12/02/uschina-competition-southeast-asia.html (06.02.2015).

119

Murphy (2010): 378.

120

The Jakarta Post (2011a): ‘US Base no Threat to Indonesia’, 21th November 2011, http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2011/11/21/us-base-no-threat-indonesia.html (06.02.2015).

121

Suryodiningrat (2010): 391. He believes this is going to change within a generation due to Chinese efforts to attract Indonesian students.

122

Novotny (2010): 132–135.

123

Siagian, Sabam/Bayuni, Endy M. (2013): ‘Why Should the US be Involved in Asia?’, The Jakarta Post, 09th October 2013, http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2013/10/09/why-should-us-be-involved-asia.html (06.02.2015).

Murphy (2010): 381.

Pew Research (2014).

Murphy (2010): 382.

Cited in ibid.

Suryodiningrat (2010): 388.

129

US Department of State (2013b): ‘The US-ASEAN Expanded Economic Engagement (E3) Initiative’, Fact Sheet, 9th October 2013, http://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2013/10/215235.htm (06.02.2015).

130

For Sino-Indonesian relations prior during the Cold War see Fels, Enrico (2013): ‘Dancing with the Dragon—Indonesia and its Relations to a Rising China’. In: Heise, Matthias/Rucktäschel, Kathrin (Eds.): Indonesia’s Search for Democracy. Political, Economic and Social Developments, Baden-Baden: Nomos Verlag, pp. 163–190, p. 174f.

131

Antara (2000): ‘Indonesia-China Relations Still ‘Cold’, Observer says’, Wire Feeds, Jakarta, 30 March 2000.

132

Ibid.

133

See Storey, Ian J. (2000): ‘Indonesia’s China Policy in the New Order and Beyond: Problems and Prospects’, Contemporary Southeast Asia, Vol. 22, No. 1, pp. 145–174, part. pp. 151–158.

134

Ibid.: 153–156.

135

See Cohen, Muhammad (2011): ‘Happy to be Chinese in Indonesia’, Asia Times, 20th October 2011, http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Southeast_Asia/MJ20Ae01.html (01.02.2015).

136

Storey (2000): 154.

137

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