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This book presents the latest research perspectives on how the Industry 4.0 paradigm is challenging the process of technological and structural change and how the diversification of the economy affects structural transformation. It also explores the impact of fast-growing technologies on the transformation of socioeconomic and environmental systems, and asks whether structural and technological change can generate sustainable economic growth and employment. Further, the book presents the basic innovations (new technologies, materials, energy, etc) and industrial policies that can lead to such a structural change.

Inhaltsverzeichnis

Frontmatter

Introduction

At the dawn of the nineteenth century, the human civilization inaugurated a new era in its way of wealth production: the industrial production, or in other words, the so-called Industrial Revolution. Mainstream economics tell us that since the inception of this radical transformation, human technology has enabled and promoted a series of disruptive transformations in the form of industrial production. Following this line of thought, the first industrial revolution, located at the transition from the eighteenth to nineteenth centuries, was characterized by the introduction of water- and steam-powered mechanical manufacturing facilities. The second industrial revolution, which happened at the transition from the nineteenth to twentieth centuries, was based on the introduction of electrically powered mass production and the intensive division of labor. Then followed the third industrial revolution, which entrenched from the 1960s until the 1990s, whose main driving force was the usage of electronics and information technologies (digital revolution) to achieve further automation of manufacture. These three successive revolutions can be coined as Industry 1.0, Industry 2.0, and Industry 3.0, respectively.
Tessaleno Devezas, João Leitão, Askar Sarygulov

Structural Change and Cycles

Frontmatter

Economic Potential of Breakthrough Technologies and Its Social Consequences

Since 2008 the world economy is undergoing a systematic structural and technological crisis. The economic potential of the technologies based on silicon semiconductor microelectronics is exhausted. Experts are now trying to identify new breakthrough technologies that can play the same role in the development of society. In this paper we consider the NBIC-technologies (N-nano-, B-bio-, I-information- and C-cognitive-) as such technologies, which are characterized by the their powerful synergies. Exemplifying the US economy, which uses about 10 % of the NBIC-technologies’ capacity, and based on an original mathematical model, we estimate that the use of such technologies can ensure economic growth by one percentage point or more. Using data from the medium-term forecast of the US NNI, we provide a long-term forecast of the dynamics of the volume of product innovation and the number of new jobs created in the US and around the world, describing the economic potential of NBIC-technologies. An analysis of the social impact of the use of NBIC-technologies is also provided. In particular, the issue of social consequences of the process of replacement of the highly skilled and paid jobs by more profitable new information technologies, is outlined.
Askar A. Akaev, Andrey I. Rudskoi

Structural and Technological Stalemate in Eurozone: If This Is the Reality, What We Can Expect?

Even 6 years after the acute phase of the Great Recession 2007–2009, Euro area economy does not show strong growth, which signals severe structural and cyclical imbalances in the European economy. Empirical data reveals that both the Eurozone and the U.S.A. are facing since 2009 an unstable equilibrium that is prone to buckling under the influence of small internal or external price shocks. For detecting the bifurcation process, i.e. transition to a state of metamorphosis, we have specially developed models of nonlinear dynamics, which describe five possible stages of the economic system and, in particular, show that the Eurozone economy is entering into a very important stage of bifurcation and the consequences of which are fundamental to determine the nature of the future economic development of both European and global economy.
Askar Akaev, Yuri Ichkitidze, Valentin Sokolov

On the Asymmetry of Economic Cycles

This paper offers a brief review of economic cycle theories, pointing out the key parameters that describe their dynamic behavior, and proposes a model of asymmetric economic cycles. The model is based on the assumption that economic cycles are non-equilibrium processes characteristic of complex open-ended systems and uses two different see-saw-like sine functions in its construction: an additive version and a multiplicative version. An empirical verification of the model is presented for the GDP cyclic dynamics for several countries and the asymmetries observed on a global scale. For some countries we have also examined the asymmetric behavior for other economic variables, like energy production and unemployment. Conclusions are drawn about the suitability of the model to forecast economic cyclic dynamics.
Valentin Sokolov, Tessaleno Devezas, Svetlana Rumyantseva

Modern Trends in Evaluation of Macroeconomic Structural Changes

The evolution of social-economic systems is nonlinear, containing both periods of gradual changes and swift transformational upswings. Seven years after the end of the last crisis of 2007–2009, recovery rates of the US and European economies remain extremely low. One of the reasons is structural-economic crisis, requiring considerable time and substantial financial resources to overcome. By the start of the crisis, all developed economies of the world, particularly US economy, had well pronounced structural allometry with disproportionally high share of the financial and banking sectors.
In this paper we propose new approaches for the evaluation of structural shifts, based on the attractor theory, the use of proportionality factor and Wold-Mensch’ nonlinear model. Our results allow the construction of structural changes monitoring system and also demonstrated, that there always exist certain states in economic system, in which the volume of production (GDP) exceeds their empirical value. The proposed system for the monitoring of structural changes can be used not only for research purposes, but also for structural shift management.
Igor A. Yevsikov, Konstantin O. Korovin, Askar I. Sarygulov

Distribution and Clusters of Basic Innovations

This paper presents our recent results on the issue of the temporal distribution of basic innovations, which, as we know, it is the main driver of economic growth. Numerous scholars have addressed this issue, and we can say that the Poison distribution is the commonly accepted one. On the other hand, there is not a convincing substantiation of the fact. This article provides a retrospective analysis of statistical evidence, and present a proof of the Poisson distribution of basic innovations based on the theory of random processes. In the empirical part of the research we have used one unified supersample time series rather than smaller different datasets as previously done by other authors.
Michael Y. Bolotin, Tessaleno C. Devezas

Financial Instability Under Innovation Development: Reasons and Regulation Within the Model of Evolutionary Processes

In this paper, we suggest an approach to the study of the financial instability based on the model of evolutionary processes. In the first place, we present some empirical facts that confirm that the stock’s price dynamics is better described by the Markov switching model rather than by the pure random walk. Further, using the equilibrium model of price formation, we show that the temporary price trends on stock market are evolutionary processes that occur in the conditions of a duality of the equilibrium between the market price and the fair value. Then, within the framework of the constructed model, we analyze the causes of the financial market instability and its impact on the real sector, and show how the financial markets create a destructive impulse under the economic growth slowdown, and therefore adversely affect the process of innovations diffusion into the market. The conducted study shows that the causes of the financial instability are the capital concentration in the narrow circles of society and the lack of investment opportunities, as compared with the available financial resources, whereas the symptoms are frequently recurring financial bubbles and crises.
Yuri Ichkitidze

Technological Change

Frontmatter

The Challenges in the Transition from Fossil Fuel to Renewable Energy

As is currently widely discussed, the implementation of climate stability requires a change in energy technologies. There is active ongoing research undertaken on the future of fossil fuel technology, to produce energy, as well as on alternative technologies, such as renewable energy, to provide energy for the future. Fossil fuel has strong externality effects, extensive CO2 emissions, which are largely responsible for triggering global warming in the long run. Yet, those externalities are not incorporated into the cost and price of fossil fuel when currently supplied. Renewable energy exhibits no externality when produced and is of infinite supply; yet, it can only be harvested with some costs. Many countries have already undertaken projects to phase out fossil fuel and to phase in renewable energy. Our paper studies the cost and price trends of fossil versus renewable energy and the effects of those industries’ performance on stock markets. We sketch a growth model that explains the dynamics of how fossil fuel is phased out and renewables are phased in. Finally, we elaborate on how this can be supported by industrial policies, and discuss what employment effects this transition from fossil fuel to renewable energy may have.
Unurjargal Nyambuu, Willi Semmler

Racing to a Renewable Transition?

Historical patterns of energy transitions over the past 500 years suggest that systemic leadership transitions have become tied to transitions in the primary source of energy. A relatively inexpensive energy source is critical to literally fueling technological and economic growth that outpaces, for a time, the rest of the world. The Dutch had peat, the British had coal, and the United States had petroleum. As the world transitions away from petroleum due to dwindling supplies, and in an effort to save the planet from a climate crisis, what might be the next big source of energy that will power the world economy? The question is particularly compelling if we are in the early days of a political-economic transition with China possibly surpassing the United States at some point in this century. Which of the two leading economies, and the world’s biggest carbon emitters, are leading the world in replacing petroleum with renewable alternatives? And is their pace to the new age of renewable energy fast enough to reverse climate change? We argue that both states conversion to non-fossil fuel are critical for the welfare of their own economies and the movement to respond to the threats emanating from climate change. However, neither state, albeit for different reasons, is embracing renewable or non-fossil fuel energy to the extent necessary to feel very confident that an energy transition will occur soon enough to do much good.
William R. Thompson, Leila Zakhirova

Metal Matrix/Nanocarbons Composites Based on Copper and Aluminum

Metal matrix composites possess high-temperature capability, high thermal conductivity, low thermal expansion coefficient, and high specific stiffness and strength. Recently discovered carbon nanostructures such as carbon nanofibers (CNFs), nanotubes (CNTs) and graphene are promising components for next-generation high-performance structural and multifunctional composite materials. Here, we utilized new approach to fabricate composite materials on the basis of aluminum, and copper matrix. In this chapter we summarize our knowledge and also present new results on the preparation of a good dispersion of CNTs, CNFs and graphene in a matrix, with the intention of improving the mechanical or electrical properties of metal-carbon composite nanomaterials. This study shows the way to solve one of the largest problem to creating strong, electrically or thermally conductive CNT/CNF or graphene composites: the difficulty of achieving a good dispersion of the carbon nanomaterials in a metal matrix. We show that discontinuously reinforcement can be successfully developed for industrial applications.
Oleg V. Tolochko, Vesselin G. Michailov, Andrey I. Rudskoi

Additive Technologies - The Basis of Digital Custom Manufacturing

Additive manufacturing technologies, also known as 3D printing, have demonstrated a tremendous growth for the past 30 years, since the development of the first polymer machines to manufacturing functional metal parts with advanced characteristics and 3D-bioprinting. This study presents and describes the developed approach for the production of an individual designed hip prosthesis based on titanium alloy using additive manufacturing technologies. For the hip prosthesis manufacturing it was applied the selective laser melting technology, and titanium alloy powders containing 6 % aluminum and 4 % vanadium as selected raw materials produced by gas and plasma atomization technologies. It is presented the influence of selective laser melting modes on the quality of samples. Evaluation of the microstructure and phase composition of the compacted material before and after heat treatment have been made. It is showed the way, in accordance with the conception of fully digital production, for creation and manufacturing of customized products.
Anatoly A. Popovich, Vadim Sh. Sufiiarov, Alexey V. Grigoriev

Private Astronautics and Its Role in Space Exploration

The authors of this study refer to as “private astronautics” to those activities which are associated with non-state financing of the development of space capabilities that represent a complete system and not just parts of it, as for example, launch vehicles spacecraft, satellites for applied or scientific purposes, etc. These developments are carried out with the expectation of their further implementation in the commercial market, but are not initiated by government. Today the appearance of “private astronautics” is an accomplished fact. Its role should increase in the near future many times. If in 2015 the contribution of “private astronautics” into world space activities is still negligible and difficult to estimate, then by 2020 we can expect about 15–20 % of the world market, and by 2030—up to 40 %. Only in the case of a serious deterioration in the political international situation can result in the non-realization of this scenario. Any crisis in relations between the leading space powers will certainly affect the development of this emerging field of “private astronautics”. But continuing the present trend it is to expect the favorable development of this sector, which will make the entrepreneurs that are presently risking their capital as major players in the field of space activities.
Alexander B. Zheleznyakov, Vadim V. Korablev

The MANBRIC-Technologies in the Forthcoming Technological Revolution

In this chapter, we analyze the relationship between Kondratieff waves and major technological revolutions on the basis of the theory of production principles and production revolutions, and offer some forecasts about the features of the Sixth Kondratieff Wave/the Fourth Industrial Revolution. We show that the technological breakthrough of the Sixth Kondratieff Wave may be interpreted as both the Fourth Industrial Revolution and as the final phase of the Cybernetic Revolution. We assume that the sixth K-wave in the 2030s and 2040s will merge with the final phase of the Cybernetic Revolution (which we call a phase of self-regulating systems). This period will be characterized by the breakthrough in medical technologies which will be capable of combining a number of other technologies into a single system of new and innovative technologies (we denote this system as a system of MANBRIC-technologies—i.e. medical, additive, nano-, bio-, robo-, info-, and cogno-technologies).
Leonid Grinin, Anton Grinin, Andrey Korotayev

Global Pattern in Materials Consumption: An Empirical Study

This paper surveys the worldwide production of a basket of 98 important industrial materials between 1960 and 2013, divided into 9 main groups. The objective was to look for an answer to the question if it is possible to keep the global economy growing while simultaneously reducing the amount of materials resources necessary to maintain today’s growth rate. Our results were analyzed within the framework of the dematerialization theory and the decoupling concept, checking the temporal unfolding in the past 50 years of the most widely used industrial materials, aiming to identify trends in dematerialization in the usage of this set of materials. One of the most striking patterns to be noted in our results is the spike-like aspect of the increasing consumption of some key materials in the first decade of the present century, a trend that seems to resume in most recent years, and is interpreted as a consequence of China’s modernization in the past three decades. Our results do not support the conclusion that human society is experiencing dematerialization of the global economy, but some patterns found show that there are reasons for optimism.
Tessaleno C. Devezas, António M. Vaz, Christopher L. Magee

Entrepreneurship Development

Frontmatter

Challenges in Technology Entrepreneurship: Managing Inter-professional Conflicts in Biopharmaceutical Enterprises

Biopharmaceutical enterprises represent classical examples of knowledge organisations that integrate multiple professional cultures. The two main professional groups that should cooperate for the success of the new biopharmaceutical venture—business people and scientists—have, however, different sets of values, which can determine intra-organisational tensions and conflicts. The present study attempts to identify the existing conflicts between the professional sub-cultures that coexist in a biopharmaceutical SME, and to analyse the conflict management procedures employed by the manager-entrepreneur to reconcile the interests, requirements and visions of various groups that work in the organisation.
Călin Gurău

Perception Gaps in International Corporate Entrepreneurship: The Role of Knowledge Transfer Tools

This chapter focuses on knowledge transfer in multinational corporations and analyses to what extent and under what conditions perception gaps associated to knowledge sharing have an impact on performance. We build and test a moderated mediation model which shows that perception gap on knowledge sharing is an antecedent of capability perception gap which, in turn, negatively influences subsidiary performance. Results obtained highlight that knowledge transfer tools—and particularly technology-based coordination mechanisms—play a crucial role in creating the best environment to share knowledge within multinational corporations.
Mara Brumana, Lucio Cassia, Davide Gamba, Tommaso Minola

Family Business and Entrepreneurship: Competencies and Organizational Behavior

Family-owned enterprises go through various stages of growth and development over time once the second and subsequent generations enter the business. They present a unique set of challenges and problems, mostly due to generational transition, role confusion, different vision of the business, qualification and skills. This quantitative study aims at increasing the understanding of which competencies are relevant to family business success and how they significantly influence both organizational behavior and family dynamics. Findings highlight the importance of family business as a unique context to study organizational behavior and confirmed how family enterprises are influenced by family culture and kinship ties.
Serena Cubico, Giuseppe Favretto, Piermatteo Ardolino, Stefano Noventa, Diego Bellini, Giovanna Gianesini, João Leitão

Metrics for Innovation and Entrepreneurial Networks

This study aims to find a model to measure the regional dynamics of the Triple and Quadruple Helixes (Academia-Firms-Local Governments and Civil Society), based on innovativeness pillars. In accordance with this purpose, different strands of literature are identified according to their focus on specific regional competitiveness governance mechanisms. We put forward an overview of the state-of-the-art of research and is duly assessed in order to develop and propose a framework of analysis that enables an integrated approach in the context of collaborative dynamics. We conclude by presenting the Regional Helix Scoreboard (RHS) for the study of regional collaborative dynamics, which integrates and associates different backgrounds and identifies a number of key performance indicators for research challenges.
Luís Farinha, João J. Ferreira

Determinants and Interdependence of Firm Entry, Exit and Mobility

Structural evolution of the industries involves the mechanism of market selection, which comprises entry, exit as well as market share changes, mobility, of incumbent firms. However, entry and exit studies so far have paid attention to the interdependencies only between the entry and exit. In this paper, we include the third dimension of mobility for analyses. Industrial and Regional diversification, unemployment, and unit cost deters entry, exit and mobility of incumbents. However, regional diversification deters entry only for larger firms. Unit cost does not have clear effect on incumbent mobility. Industries with smaller sized firms and with higher growth volatility experience higher entry, exit and mobility. Growth cause more entry and mobility of incumbents and fewer exits. We also test the phenomenon that entry and exit activities symmetrically, simultaneously and with delay response to each other, considering mobility. We use a longitudinal data set from Portugal covering 1986–1993 time period and 320 six-digit industries. We classify industries into growing, mature and declining parts. According to the estimation results, growing industries experience significantly more entry, exit and changes in market shares among incumbents. Although the argument that declining industries experience less entry has support, its positive significance on exit equation has some weak support. Overall, the results support that entry, exit and incumbent mobility response to unobserved common determinants. Moreover, additional estimation results suggest that also there is interdependence among entry, exit and incumbent mobility.
Rui Baptista, Murat Karaöz

Coopetition and Co-innovation: Do Manufacturing and Service Providers Behave Differently?

Previous studies on coopetition considered the concept as a mix of cooperation and competition among firms, oriented towards producing innovation and generating net value added or economic benefit. The importance of studying the determinants of firms’ innovative behaviour in order to produce an insightful analysis of their patent intensity behaviour based on those coopetition relationships has also warranted increasing attention by several entrepreneurship scholars. This paper tackles the issue in an innovative way, by making use of firms’ behaviour in generating co-innovative products and services to reveal their innovative performance and the dynamics of coopetition targeted at open innovation. Thus, we analyse the determinant factors of firms; capacity to generate co-innovations, which is influenced by the role played by policies oriented to driving innovations among firms, cooperation with scientific stakeholders and development of the capacity to generate and transfer new products. For this purpose, we use a dataset of 3682 manufacturing firms and 1221 service firms that participated in the European Community Innovation Survey (CIS), 2008. A probit analysis is conducted separately for manufacturing and service firms and, within each sector, according to firms’ category of technological intensity. The results reveal the significant influence of manufacturing and service firms’ capacity to generate co-innovative products and services, such as coopetition arrangements between competing firms and other R&D stakeholders, and also firms’ capacity to introduce innovations to the market. Furthermore, this study also reveals that for service firms the effects of introducing process innovations inside the firm and the existence of internal R&D activities are of major significance for creating a capacity to generate co-innovations.
Dina Pereira, João Leitão, Tessaleno Devezas
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