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Über dieses Buch

This book comprises the main results of the Scenario (Support on Common European Strategy for sustainable natural and induced technological hazards mitigation) project, funded as a Specific Support Action under the VI FP. This book addresses three main needs: first, it constitutes an assessment of the situation of Europe as far as natural na-tech risks are considered; second, it suggests future research themes to be opened of widened so as to tackle new and emerging threats as well as changes in the potential response to risk governance, in order to improve the way scientific and technical expertise informs decision making regarding all fields of mitigation, ranging from structural to non structural measures, such as training, education and land use planning.



1. Introduction to Sustainable Risk Mitigation for a More Resilient Europe

Over the past 15 years it has become increasingly accepted that there is a need to integrate the principles and practices of sustainability with the principles and practices of risk mitigation. Only by adopting a sustainable approach to risk mitigation, it is argued, can effective, equitable and long term approaches to mitigating risks and building resilience be developed. In this book we consider what the integration of sustainability and risk mitigation might mean, why it is needed to manage the likely future profiles of hazard, exposure, vulnerability and risk in Europe, and how it might be pursued specifically in a European context.
G. Walker, H. Deeming, C. Margottini, S. Menoni

2. Europe at Risk (Following EU-Funded Research on Hazard and Risks)

This chapter regarding present risk conditions, has been structured using significant “images” of Europe, addressing the hazard, exposure and vulnerability factors recognised as crucial components of any risk assessment. To draw such a picture, results of past research at the European level were extensively searched, showing achievements and gaps in data provision, as in current understanding of the most important risk parameters. What clearly emerges is the need to develop tools and methods for assessing risks on a European scale, beyond the individual evaluations that each country may have developed within national borders. The relevance on a European scale can be appraised either in case of regional events, transboundary in their nature, or as far as the consequences of events are taken into account.
G. Delmonaco, F. Atun, A. Ceudech, H. Deeming, A. De Roo, D. Lumbroso, A. Galderisi, M. Kallache, J. P. Kropp, S. Kundak, D. Molinari, F. Tweed, S. Wade, G. Walker, M. Dandoulaki, J. Barredo

3. Impact and Losses of Natural and Na-Tech Disasters in Europe

Information provided in previous chapters is complemented here by quantitative data regarding disasters that have affected Europe in the last 60 years. Work on global databases open to the public turned out to be more difficult than expected, highlighting the need for an open discussion about the quality, sources and completeness of databases from which information related to disasters can be found. It should be remembered that those data are often used to support the assumption of a general increase in the number of events and economic damages and they are broadly used by both the scientific and the political communities.
C. Margottini, G. Delmonaco, F. Ferrara

4. Current Mitigation Practices in the EU

Mitigation measures are those aimed at reducing the potential harm to people and damage to the built and natural environments resulting from natural extremes. Various actions, ranging from hazard mapping to structural and non-structural measures, to insurance and legislation have been proposed as components of risk mitigation.
J. F. Esteban, B. Izquierdo, J. Lopez, D. Molinari, S. Menoni, A. De Roo, H. Deeming, G. Walker, G. Eftichidis

5. Risk Futures in Europe

In this section scenario as a concept and a tool will be discussed, tracing a path from the very general and theoretical to the more applied aspects. The notable chapter “The History of the Future”, appearing in a book by Rescher (1991), will be taken as a starting reference. Rescher discusses the increasing importance of futurology in today’s practical life, including policy and science (see also Oreskes, 2000). This focus on the future has become extremely important because of the rapid quantitative and qualitative changes experienced in modern life. It is also a consequence of the role played by science in society in supporting decision-making processes, particularly in the field of risks and environmental issues in general.
J. P. Kropp, G. Walker, S. Menoni, M. Kallache, H. Deeming, A. De Roo, F. Atun, S. Kundak

6. From Global to Local and from Local to Global: Examples of Event Scenarios in Europe

This chapter logically follows the previous one. After having sketched some visions of future potential hazards and vulnerability patterns for Europe, here more specific event scenarios are developed. An attempt to combine hazards, exposure and vulnerabilities to obtain damage estimates is thought to be possible only with respect to individual threats, or to individual events, whose impacts can be evaluated across sectors of economy and society. According to the Scenario project this can be considered an important advancement in research with respect to what has been made up to now: current available risk assessments, indeed, generally consist of hazard assessments, with scarce or no consideration of vulnerability of exposed systems. Coherently with what has been stated in Chapter 3, not only direct physical losses have to be accounted for, but also indirect and secondary damages due to systemic links among elements or sectors, as well as the effects on physical assets of otherwise intangible organisational, social and institutional factors.
A. Galderisi, J. P. Kropp, A. Ceudech, M. Kallache

7. Shift in Thinking

The Scenario project has set a rather ambitious and even risky goal: to lay down a roadmap for future research in natural risks and mitigation policy in the European Union, drawing on ten years of research on natural hazards, mainly funded under the V (1998–2002) and VI (2002–2006) Framework Programmes. The goal is not only ambitious, but could be easily labelled as unrealistic and even arrogant. Initial meetings of the project set the stage for harsh discussions on methodology, specific steps and basic definitions to be followed by the research teams. Despite initial differences, many of which persist, between diverse hazard communities, and between climate change and natural hazards scholars, it is interesting to note that it was possible to achieve some commonalities and convergence points.
S. Menoni, C. Margottini, A. Galderisi, G. Delmonaco, F. Ferrara, J. P. Kropp, J. F. Esteban, J. Lopez, A. Pugliano, O. Mejri, P. Plebani


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