14.1 Introduction
14.2 Estimation of Residual Damages in Economic Integrated Assessment Modelling
14.2.1 IAM-Methods and Models
14.2.2 IAM Mechanics: Relation Between Adaptation Expenditures, Loss and Damage and Residual Costs
14.3 Estimating Residual Damages as a Measure of Loss and Damage
14.3.1 Model Set-Up
2020 | 2030 | 2040 | 2050 | 2060 | 2070 | 2080 | 2090 | 2100 | Range (*) (%) | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
USA | 78 | 113 | 141 | 169 | 200 | 325 | 391 | 469 | 563 | 8 |
W. Europe | 405 | 584 | 730 | 876 | 1,038 | 1,686 | 2,027 | 2,432 | 2,918 | 79 |
E. Europe | 12 | 17 | 22 | 26 | 31 | 50 | 60 | 72 | 86 | 67 |
KOSAU | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 11 | 311 |
CAJANZ | 26 | 38 | 47 | 57 | 67 | 109 | 131 | 157 | 189 | 4535 |
TE | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 222 |
MENA | 90 | 130 | 162 | 195 | 231 | 375 | 450 | 540 | 648 | 51 |
SSA | 78 | 112 | 140 | 168 | 199 | 323 | 389 | 467 | 560 | 31 |
SASIA | 240 | 345 | 431 | 518 | 613 | 997 | 1,198 | 1,438 | 1,725 | 12 |
CHINA | 19 | 28 | 34 | 41 | 49 | 80 | 96 | 115 | 138 | 118 |
EASIA | 85 | 122 | 153 | 183 | 217 | 353 | 424 | 509 | 610 | 131 |
LACA | 214 | 308 | 385 | 462 | 548 | 891 | 1,070 | 1,284 | 1,541 | 5 |
Total | 1,250 | 1,800 | 2,250 | 2,700 | 3,200 | 5,200 | 6,250 | 7,500 | 9,000 |
2020 | 2030 | 2040 | 2050 | 2060 | 2070 | 2080 | 2090 | 2100 | Range (*) (%) | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
USA | 13 | 31 | 59 | 113 | 194 | 238 | 281 | 328 | 375 | 8 |
W. Europe | 65 | 162 | 308 | 584 | 1,005 | 1,232 | 1,459 | 1,702 | 1,946 | 79 |
E. Europe | 2 | 5 | 9 | 17 | 30 | 36 | 43 | 50 | 57 | 67 |
KOSAU | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 311 |
CAJANZ | 4 | 10 | 20 | 38 | 65 | 80 | 94 | 110 | 126 | 4535 |
TE | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 222 |
MENA | 14 | 36 | 68 | 130 | 223 | 274 | 324 | 378 | 432 | 51 |
SSA | 12 | 31 | 59 | 112 | 193 | 236 | 280 | 327 | 373 | 31 |
SASIA | 38 | 96 | 182 | 345 | 594 | 728 | 863 | 1,006 | 1,150 | 12 |
CHINA | 3 | 8 | 15 | 28 | 47 | 58 | 69 | 80 | 92 | 118 |
EASIA | 14 | 34 | 64 | 122 | 210 | 258 | 305 | 356 | 407 | 131 |
LACA | 34 | 86 | 163 | 308 | 531 | 651 | 771 | 899 | 1,028 | 5 |
Total | 200 | 500 | 950 | 1,800 | 3,100 | 3,800 | 4,500 | 5,250 | 6,000 |
14.3.2 Results
2020 | 2030 | 2040 | 2050 | 2060 | 2070 | 2080 | 2090 | 2100 | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Adaptation costs ($billion) | MENA | 50 | 141 | 252 | 373 | 453 | 655 | 998 | 1,360 | 1,511 |
SSA | 14 | 40 | 71 | 105 | 128 | 185 | 282 | 384 | 427 | |
SASIA | 25 | 69 | 123 | 182 | 221 | 319 | 487 | 663 | 737 | |
CHINA | 14 | 39 | 70 | 103 | 126 | 181 | 276 | 377 | 419 | |
EASIA | 26 | 73 | 131 | 193 | 235 | 339 | 517 | 705 | 783 | |
LACA | 18 | 50 | 89 | 131 | 159 | 230 | 351 | 478 | 532 | |
Total | 147 | 411 | 735 | 1,088 | 1,323 | 1,911 | 2,910 | 3,968 | 4,409 | |
Residual costs as % of adaptation costs | MENA | 191% | 98% | 69% | 56% | 54% | 61% | 48% | 43% | 46% |
SSA | 564% | 290% | 203% | 165% | 160% | 180% | 142% | 125% | 135% | |
SASIA | 991% | 510% | 357% | 289% | 282% | 317% | 250% | 220% | 238% | |
CHINA | 104% | 54% | 37% | 30% | 30% | 33% | 26% | 23% | 25% | |
EASIA | 259% | 133% | 93% | 76% | 74% | 83% | 65% | 58% | 62% | |
LACA | 1216% | 625% | 438% | 355% | 346% | 389% | 307% | 270% | 292% | |
Total | 488% | 251% | 176% | 143% | 139% | 156% | 123% | 109% | 117% |
2020 | 2030 | 2040 | 2050 | 2060 | 2070 | 2080 | 2090 | 2100 | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Adaptation costs $billon | MENA | 5 | 10 | 16 | 24 | 151 | 242 | 383 | 554 | 705 |
SSA | 1 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 43 | 68 | 108 | 156 | 199 | |
SASIA | 2 | 5 | 8 | 12 | 74 | 118 | 187 | 270 | 344 | |
CHINA | 1 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 42 | 67 | 106 | 154 | 195 | |
EASIA | 3 | 5 | 8 | 13 | 78 | 125 | 198 | 287 | 366 | |
LACA | 2 | 4 | 6 | 9 | 53 | 85 | 135 | 195 | 248 | |
Total | 15 | 29 | 47 | 71 | 441 | 705 | 1,117 | 1,617 | 2,057 | |
Residual costs as % of adaptation costs | MENA | 306% | 383% | 454% | 574% | 158% | 121% | 91% | 73% | 66% |
SSA | 902% | 1127% | 1339% | 1691% | 466% | 357% | 267% | 215% | 193% | |
SASIA | 1585% | 1982% | 2353% | 2972% | 819% | 628% | 469% | 378% | 340% | |
CHINA | 167% | 208% | 247% | 312% | 86% | 66% | 49% | 40% | 36% | |
EASIA | 415% | 518% | 616% | 778% | 214% | 164% | 123% | 99% | 89% | |
LACA | 1946% | 2432% | 2888% | 3648% | 1005% | 770% | 576% | 464% | 417% | |
Total | 781% | 977% | 1160% | 1465% | 404% | 309% | 231% | 186% | 167% |
14.3.3 Implications of Higher Emissions and Greater Climate Impacts on Residual Damages
14.4 Discussion of Results
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UNEP’s Adaptation Gap Report (2014) estimates the indicative costs of adaptation and the residual damages (losses and damages) for LDCs at ~USD50 billion/year by 2025/2030 and possibly double this value (USD100 billion/year) by 2050 at 2 °C.
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Baarsch et al. (2015) suggest Loss and Damage costs (not needs) for developing countries of around $400bn in 2030, rising to $1–2 trillion by 2050.
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DARA (2012) estimates these costs to be $4 trillion in 2030.
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AMCEN/UNEP Africa’s Adaptation Gap 2 Report (2015) with all cost effective adaptation in Africa losses and damages are estimated at ~USD100bn per year by 2050 for warming below 2 °C, at least double that if warming goes above 4 °C.