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After all the hard work in constructing model and database and in successfully simulating the designed scenarios, the final task facing a modeller is to interpret or analyse modelling results. In interpreting CGE modelling results, the modeller needs to pay attention to two issues: how to deal with the complexity of modelling results and how to explain the results in plain language. There are many variables involved in a simulation so the interpretation tends to be complex and lengthy. To keep the analysis concise, the modeller has to select the most important variables and simulation scenarios. Moreover, the reports or analyses from CGE modelling are read by a wide audience, including people who are not CGE modellers or even economists, so it is very important to write the reports or analyses in simple language, using minimum CGE modelling and economic jargon.
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Section 8.1 has been significantly revised from Journal of Travel & Tourism Marketing, 31:1071–1089, 2014, ‘The Role of Inbound Tourism in the Singaporean Economy: A Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Assessment’ by Samuel Meng.
Although 0.1 % seems a small number, the contribution of tourism is very significant due to the large base of GDP and employment. For example, Singapore’s GDP was $243,169 million and employment 2733 thousand in 2007 (MIT 2008). Around 8 % growth in tourism demand in 2007 would have induced $243 million GDP growth and created 2733 new jobs. These are significant numbers for a city state economy.
Section 8.2 has been significantly revised from Tourism Analysis, 16(3):343–359, 2011, DOI: 10.3727/108354211X13110944387284, ‘A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis of Potential Policy Responses to A Negative Tourism Demand Shock in Singapore’ by Meng, X., Siriwardana, M. and Dollery, B. Thanks for the copyright permission from Cognizant Communication Corporation.
A simplified version of this section was published in Tourism Management, 34:25–36, 2013. ‘A CGE Assessment of Singapore’s Tourism Policies’ by Meng, X., Siriwardana, M. and Pham, T. Thanks for the copyright permission from Elsevier.
MTI (Ministry of Trade and Industry). (2008). Economic Survey of Singapore, Singapore.
Meng, X. (2014). The Role of Inbound Tourism in the Singaporean Economy: A CGE Assessment. Journal of Travel and Tourism Marketing., 31(8), 1071–1089. CrossRef
Meng, X., Siriwardana, M., & Dollery, B. (2011). A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis of Potential Policy Responses to a Negative Tourism Demand Shock in Singapore. Tourism Analysis, 16(3), 343–359. CrossRef
Meng, X., Siriwardana, M., & Pham, T. (2013). A CGE Assessment of Singapore’s Tourism Policies. Tourism Management, 34, 25–36. CrossRef
- Interpretation of Results from a Tourism CGE Model
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