1. Introduction: The Lessons of Democratic Resilience in the Baltics
- Open Access
- 2026
- OriginalPaper
- Buchkapitel
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Abstract
Democratic resilience in Europe can no longer be taken for granted. In fact, European democracy and democratic institutions are facing threats now in ways that have not been seen since the end of the Cold War in 1991; this is particularly true of the three Baltic states, which rejoined the democratic West at that time and whose state institutions were deliberately structured to prevent a return to authoritarianism.
From the end of World War II up until recently, several forces propelled European states in the direction of democracy. First, it was the triumph of the allies over Nazism and Fascism, signalling support for free societies over closed ones. Of course, this victory was qualified with Stalin’s Soviet Union considered one of the allies and the 1945 Yalta conference dividing up Europe into spheres of influence that would eventually divide the continent along the famous Iron Curtain and leaving Baltic States behind this curtain. But for the Europe not within the Iron Curtain, the end of the war was a victory for democracy.
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But this victory for democracy was also marked by U.S. protection, serving as the guarantor of European security and as the so-called leader of the free world. Moreover, the USA helped forge the modern rules-based order of international law and institutions that included the United Nations and the International Court of Justice. Also, we saw the emergence of alliances such as NATO and then institutions such as the European Coal Community that eventually morphed into the European Union. Finally, with the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989 and the collapse of the USSR in1991, it looked as if, in the words of American scholar Francis Fukuyama, western-style democracy had emerged as the victorious metanarrative to guide politics across Europe. Despite the existential threat democracy faced during the Cold War, it proved resilient.
But the status of Europe including Baltics looks very different today compared to 1991. A resurgent Russia under Vladamir Putin has proved to the dismay of western Europe that that demise of the Soviet Union did not mean this country is no longer was a threat to the continent’s security or democracy. It is not only its 2014 and 2022 invasions of Ukraine, but it also includes its invasions or interventions in Georgia, Moldovia, Serbia, and Romania, just to mention few states where Russian intervention in elections has been a problem. Across the Baltics, Russian sponsored activities in terms of cyber-attacks or other interventions also are threatening democracy. Russian resurgence along with the rise of the other BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) as well as other states is challenging the unipolar world the USA and Europe thought they had achieved in 1991.
That challenge is not just about military or economic might. It questions the viability and resilience of democracy. U.S. President Barack Obama’s famous dismissal of Russia as a regional power and his “pivot to Asia” signalled a deemphasis of America’s commitment to Europe. Donald Trump’s first term as president reinforced that shift as he questioned the value of NATO, made friends with authoritarian governments, and pulled out of many global alliances or institutions. While Joe Biden sought to repair some of this damage, his disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021 emboldened foes of democracy that the USA could no longer be relied on. For countries such as China and Russia, the USA was in decline and with that so was democracy.
Donald Trump’s second presidency has done nothing to ease those concerns. Pulling out of more international institutions, shifting U.S. defence commitments away from Europe, and agreeing with a Putin defined vision of the world render democratic resilience fragile. But it is a new fragility, with new threats led by cyber-attacks, artificial intelligence, and assaults on the economic, cultural, and other aspects of society and the state. In some ways, the era of “total war” has re-emerged, but this time the focus is arguably on democracy.
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The picture for democracy does not look so good. Freedom House has noted nearly a one-decade long retreat from democracy across the world. As noted above, China, the Russian Federation, and other states part of the BRICS movement have challenged the unipolarity of western democratic values. Across the world and within even the European Union in places such as Hungary and Slovakia, democratic institutions and norms are eroding. Scholars such as Holmes and Krastev have argued in The Light That Failed: Why the West Is Losing the Fight for Democracy (2020) that democracies across the world are facing unprecedent challenges. These challenges are multifaceted and even extend to large and established democracies such as the United States, especially after the attack on the U.S. capitol on January 6, 2021.
Democratic resilience is an increasingly important concept in the fields of security studies, democratic theory, comparative politics, and international affairs (Van Beek, 2022; Howe, 2022). Yet so far, the literature in this field has focused mostly on large democratic states or on Western European countries (Korosteleva & Flockhart, 2021). Additionally, these studies have often focused on conventional military threats or the instability of democratic institutions (Fathi, 2022; Linkov & Trump, 2019). Most of the current research has been descriptive, often lacking prescriptive recommendations regarding how to enhance democratic resilience (Rampp et al., 2019). There is some research on democracy and resilience in small states, but the existing work does not take the all-encompassing approach that we take here (Česnakas & Juozaitis, 2023; Baldacchino, 2023; Schultz et al., 2022; Baldacchino & Wivel, 2020).
This is the first of a two-volume book that fills a gap in the literature by exploring how small European countries, particularly the Baltic States, are strengthening their resilience to the challenges of climate change and hybrid threats despite limitations posed by their limited human and material resources, small territories, high degree of economic openness, and dependence on larger nations. The Baltics offer an excellent case study in that they are at the confluence of many of the geopolitical conflicts confronting democracies in Europe and across the world. The book critically applies and evaluates general concepts of resilience through detailed studies of small European states. It outlines response strategies that encompass total defence, civil resistance, and sustainable development, and weaves these elements into their national security and governance agendas.
The two volumes expand upon the traditional political science approach to state resilience. The analysis takes an interdisciplinary approach, going beyond the traditional boundaries of political science and international relations. It encompasses multiple domains of resilience, including the political, economic, legal, social, cyber, and information spheres. It covers underexplored areas of resilience. It gathers insights from unexplored facets of resilience, such as legal frameworks, intelligence mechanisms, climate change, and the role of citizens in resilience-building processes. It uses empirical case studies examining the tactics of the Baltic States’ eastern neighbours, in particular Russia and Belarus. These case studies focus on cyber-attacks, disinformation campaigns aimed at provoking public dissent—particularly among Russian-speaking communities, the manipulation of migrant flows, demonstrating the diverse strategies of resistance and adaptation.
The contributors explore these threats, while assessing what democratic states need to do to protect and strengthen their democratic institutions and practices. Taking Baltic countries as cases, the various scholars investigate how small democratic states resist current challenges caused by climate change and hybrid security threats, and how social-ecological systems can absorb, resist, or adapt to disturbances without losing their functions. The three Baltic states—Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania—have navigated the complexities of post-Cold War Europe with agility, aligning their institutional frameworks, legal systems, and administrative processes to reflect the democratic norms and security paradigms of the Western bloc.
However, the current international landscape has evolved from one of relative stability, where the lines of conflict were clearly drawn, to a more turbulent state characterized by ambiguity. This “grey zone” is characterized by disinformation campaigns, cyber-attacks, economic coercion, especially in the energy sector, and various provocations that strain the established democratic institutional order and raise concerns about the resilience of Baltic societies and systems to hybrid threats. In addition, environmental challenges such as extreme weather events and biodiversity loss are threatening states’ economies, health systems, and overall resilience.
The essays in both volumes explore the resilience of Baltic societies and systems to such challenges and disturbing events. It critically studies whether existing defensive and adaptive mechanisms are resilient enough to withstand these challenges and, crucially, how confronting one form of threat enhances preparedness and resilience against future threats. The two volumes offer recommendations for other small democratic states regarding how to improve their resilience, with the lessons potentially applicable even to larger states.
This first volume Resilient Governance and Democratic Stability examines various aspects of the resilience of the Baltic States—Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania—to a range of contemporary threats. The volume divides into four main parts. Part I provides an overview of democratic resilience, with a particular focus on how the Baltic States have developed mechanisms to deal with hybrid threats, especially from Russia, while preserving democratic institutions and promoting public awareness. Part II delves into specific areas of resilience, covering political, intelligence, economic, legal, social, and climate resilience. This chapter dissects the body of knowledge on resilience in the Baltic context to make the theoretical principles of resilience clear and concrete. Part III focuses on strategies and practices for building resilience, discussing financial threats, supply chain integrity, the role of innovation and technology, institutional changes in the EU framework, and critical infrastructure protection. Finally, Part IV presents case studies that provide practical insights into crisis management, the Belarusian border migrant crisis, energy resilience and dealing with Russian psychological warfare. The monograph examines how the Baltic states maintain resilience in a complex and often hostile geopolitical environment.
The second volume of the monograph, Societal Resilience as a Defence Force, examines the concept of societal resilience as an element of national defence, with a particular focus on its relevance in the context of contemporary global conflicts. The volume is comprised of five parts. Part I establishes the theoretical framework for defining societal resilience and examines its role in wartime, drawing on specific lessons from the Russia–Ukraine conflict and their application in the Baltic States.
Part II examines the role of civil engagement and social capital in the context of mass movements, civil participation, and the willingness of citizens to defend their country. It presents case studies from Latvia and Lithuania to illustrate these concepts. Part III examines the interaction between civic culture, national identity, and resilience, drawing on insights from diverse practices of Ukraine and France. Furthermore, the impact of military traditions and the culture of arms on state resilience are discussed. Part IV examines the nexus of psychological warfare and information resilience, with a particular focus on the analysis of Kremlin propaganda and strategies to counter cyber threats. This part presents examples from the Baltic States.
The concluding Part V synthesizes these insights into practical strategies and guidelines for the construction and maintenance of societal resilience. It focuses on the role of civic culture, national identity, and democratic values as the foundations of a resilient society capable of withstanding hybrid threats.
Overall, the two volumes provide a comprehensive framework for understanding and building societal resilience as a multidimensional defence mechanism by taking the Baltic States as a case study. The two volumes emphasize but the resilience of democratic values as well as the institutions and processes required to maintain these values in a political environment that has rapidly changed from what it was since WW II.
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David Schultz
is a Distinguished University Professor in the Departments of Political Science, Environmental Studies, and Legal Studies at Hamline University. He is also a professor of Law at the University of St. Thomas and at the General Jonas Žemaitis Military Academy of Lithuania. A four-time Fulbright scholar who has taught extensively in Europe and Asia, and the winner of the Leslie A. Whittington national award for excellence in public affairs teaching, David is the former editor-in-chief of the Journal of Public Affairs Education and the author of more than 45 books and 200+ articles on various aspects of American politics, election law, and the media and politics. His most recent books are Constitutional Precedent in US Supreme Court Reasoning (2022), Handbook of Election Law (2022), Presidential Swing States (2022), and Generational Politics in the United States (2024).
Rasa Smaliukienė
is a professor of management and public administration at Lithuanian Military Academy where she teaches disaster management. She is an expert at the International Organization for Standardization (ISO) in a group on security and resilience; national representative at NATO Science and Technology Organization (STO) in a group for Human Factors and Medicine; participant of national and international research projects. Her research interests focus on human factors in security and disaster management.
