1. Introduction

The global space activity, in particular in the field of outer space exploration and human spaceflight, two domains intrinsically related, has traditionally been driven by governments. From a historical standpoint, the Cold War provided a particularly fertile geopolitical context for progress in these areas. Competition between the USA and the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics, trying to outdo each other’s achievements, has given an incredible momentum to space exploration programmes. At the time, the large public budgets dedicated to space exploration were predominantly motivated by political and strategic objectives: on 12 September 1962, President John F. Kennedy proclaimed that the USA had chosen to forge the pathway to the Moon “not because it is easy, but because it is hard” (Kennedy in Address at Rice University on Nation’s Space Effort. Rice University, Texas, 1962) insisting that the USA would make efforts to explore outer space to demonstrate American greatness to the rest of the world. After the success of the Apollo programme, the political incentive for space exploration weakened and public budgets for related programmes were substantially reduced. Yet, American space exploration ambitions were never officially scaled down, putting pressure on the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) to achieve comparable results with limited resources. In parallel, the USA and USSR entered a period of Détente symbolized, in the space exploration domain, by the Apollo–Soyuz Test Project (ASTP) in July 1975. This marked a change in the space race and the beginning of an era of international collaboration, as an alternative way to achieve challenging space exploration goals (Holland in The American Space Exploration Narrative: Evolution of Space Exploration in the 152 United States from the Cold War to Today. University of Colorado, Denver, 2016). The emergence of other space-faring nations, in particular, Europe and Japan, expanded the possibility to achieve international partnerships. Among collaborations in the field of space exploration, the International Space Station (ISS), that President Ronald Reagan directed NASA to build in 1984, is the most ambitious and emblematic. The programme entered into force in 1998 with the signature of the Space Station Intergovernmental Agreement (IGA) by 15 states and the launch of the first station module, Zarya, by Russia which joined the programme after decommissioning of the MIR station. In parallel to the rise of international cooperation in space exploration, the Reagan administration also encouraged the emergence of commercial space with the concept of “new frontier” of economic development. This approach was also primarily motivated by the opportunity to conciliate American leadership and a reduction of government spending. Ever since, US space commercialization strategy intensified on an increasing number of space domains (i.e. space telecommunications, commercial space transportation, remote sensing…) through various governmental initiatives and the incremental adoption of a legal and regulatory framework to foster commercial endeavours. Space commercialization was not a preserve of the USA. In the late 70s, Europe had already engaged in this field with outstanding successes such as Arianespace, the first commercial space launch operator (1980) or SPOT Image, the first commercial dealer for space remote sensing (1982). In this historical context, space exploration remained, however, and despite multiple attempts, (Note: These attempts were primarily related to the objective to use human spaceflight and space exploration systems for commercial purpose (e.g. use of the Space Shuttle as commercial orbiter and for in-orbit servicing, use of space stations for commercial purpose including technology developments or orbital tourism)) essentially funded and led by governments through national and international programmes. The substantial costs of space exploration missions and lack of business cases limited the emergence of commercial leadership in this field. As a consequence, and despite a strong political will, the involvement of commercial actors in space exploration programmes remained limited, in general, to the role of contractors. This situation evolved to some extent with the retirement of the Space Shuttle and the introduction of the Commercial Orbital Transportation Services (COTS) programme. Driven by the objective to improve cost-effectiveness and share development and operations’ risks with private partners, NASA implemented an innovative procurement scheme based on competitive, performance-based, fixed-price milestones (National Aeronautics and Space Administration in Commercial Orbital Transportation Services. 2014). Through the COTS and related Commercial Resupply Service (CRS) and Commercial Crew Program (CCP), NASA transferred a bigger share of responsibilities and risks to the private sector, focusing on the purchase of cargo and crew transportation services rather than vehicles. In this frame, the agency acted as an anchor customer, investor and advisor for the industry to stimulate private development of commercial space transportation systems (National Aeronautics and Space Administration in Commercial Orbital Transportation Services. 2014). These programmes marked an important milestone in the rise of commercial actors in the field of outer space exploration and human spaceflight and established a successful example for more ambitious partnerships between government and industry in this field. Fostering the involvement of commercial actors in public programmes is nowadays a dominant consideration of governments and agencies who are increasingly eager to explore new mechanisms to take advantage of private contributions to engage in future programmes and achieve challenging space exploration goals. In general, various announcements and institution-led initiatives, such as the Calls for Ideas launched by the European Space Agency (ESA) to trigger a commercial utilization of the ISS, underline the increasing interest of space agencies in opening exploration programmes to commercial contributions and reap associated benefits. The growing opportunity of a more prominent contribution of commercial actors to space exploration also lies in the so-called New Space ecosystem, a business-driven dynamic of the space sector which is characterized by the following interrelated trends: new entrants in the space sector including large information and information and communications technology (ICT) firms, start-ups and new business ventures, innovative industrial approaches with announcements and initial developments of ambitious projects based on new processes, disruptive market solutions providing, for example, integrated services, lower prices, reduced lead time, lower complexity or higher performance among other value proposition features, substantial private investments from different sources and involving different funding mechanisms, new industry verticals and space markets targeting the provision of New Space applications. In this new ecosystem, space exploration and human spaceflight have become domains of interest for private companies, entrepreneurs and investors, eager to engage in commercial endeavours and conduct business in these fields. Among new target markets pursued by commercial actors, space mining, orbital tourism or even planetary colonization were recently put under the spotlight by ambitious private project announcements. This general context creates programmatic opportunities and strategic challenges for space agencies. For this reason, the European Space Policy Institute (ESPI) and the Italian Space Agency (ASI) decided to conduct a study on the potential contributions of commercial actors to space exploration. This study aims to investigate the current space exploration geopolitical, commercial and programmatic environment to identify elements that would drive, or prevent, a more prominent contribution of private actors to space exploration and to analyse the conditions, mechanisms and expected impacts/benefits of potential contributions.