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In 2014, the decreasing trend of economy growth will continue. In the first half year of 2014, compared with the same period of the last year, the GDP grew 7.4 %, which was the lowest for the past 4 years.
In the past 3 years, the central government has been applying the micro-stimulus and targeted easing policies to relieve downward pressure of China’s economy, and to maintain growth above 7.5 %. The effects of micro-stimulus policies on economy growth are continuously diminishing:
Based on the features of the economy circle and the economy of “the new normal”, China should appropriately set a lower economic growth target, which will be conducive to appropriately reduce the government intervention of market, and help to greatly cut the cost of macroeconomic controls and operations. Thus, we need to investigate the effects of giving up micro-stimulus policies and reducing the economic growth target on other major macroeconomic indicators.
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The main factors of the economic performance.
This is a more targeted, more restrained kind of stimulus. It is small compared with the massive stimulus of 2008–2009, which cost 4 trillion CNY, but was followed by much more in spending projects initiated by local governments.
Calculated at current price.
Calculated at current USD.
The growth rate increased from the 7.4 % in the third quarter to the 7.9 % in the fourth quarter in 2012, from 7.5 % in the second quarter to 7.8 % in the third quarter in 2013, from 7.4 % in the first quarter to 7.5 % in the second quarter in 2014.
Steady state growth rate.
Presumably, the trend of the US economy and the Euro-zone economy were not affected, and the interest rate, exchange rate and other variables remained the same as the actual values.
If keeping the annual average economic growth rate at 7.1 % during the 13th Five-Year Plan period (from 2015 to 2020), the general government debts balance will decrease 2.06 trillion CNY, which will definitely have positive effects on relieving the government debts pressure.
Center for Macroeconomic Research of Xiamen University
- Springer Berlin Heidelberg
- Chapter 1
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