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Erschienen in:
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2017 | OriginalPaper | Buchkapitel

Is Monetary Policy Really Forward-Looking? The Case of the Czech Republic, Poland and Hungary

verfasst von : Magdalena Szyszko

Erschienen in: Finance in Central and Southeastern Europe

Verlag: Springer International Publishing

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Abstract

The following chapter presents the cross-country comparison of central banks’ decision-making premises. A simple index of forward-lookingness (FL) is created and applied for the Czech Republic, Poland and Hungary. This index verifies whether the central banks consider their own inflation forecast and inflation expectations while making decisions on the interest rates. The way how the modern central banks understand transmission mechanism justifies a search for an assessment of their forward-lookingness. Once it is possible to compare the FL of the central bankers, the conclusion on the relationships of their results and FL or the FL of the central banker and expectations of economic agents can be drawn. The additional goal of this chapter is to assess the central bank’s decision compatibility with its own inflation forecasts. Inflation forecasts, consistently used by the central banks, may support the stabilization of inflation expectations exhibited by economic agents. The results for three countries covered by the examination show the highest FL of the Czech National Bank which outperforms the National Bank of Hungary and the National Bank of Poland in both: FL and decision consistence with the macroeconomic forecast.

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Nächstes Kapitel A Study of the Possible Consequences in the Event of an Accelerated Issuance and Widespread Use of Private e-Money: A Case Study of Montenegro
Fußnoten
1
Main stream economic theory imposes the point of view of this chapter. Regardless of some critics of its assumptions and findings, it still gives a sound and consistent background for analytical models of the central banks all around the world. None of heterodox schools of economics have offered acceptable alternative up to know.
 
2
The horizon depends on the way in which the expectations are examined. 12Y horizon refers to survey-based expectations among consumers. In the case of business and specialists expectations, longer horizons as well as alternative ways of measurement are applied.
 
3
The assessment of decision compatibility with the forecast was developed on the basis of inflation forecast targeting index (Szyszko 2017b).
 
4
As the forecast frequency is lower than the MPC meetings, decision round here means one forecast and each monetary policy meeting that occur to the next forecast publication. It means that one forecast may be discussed during 2–4 MPC meetings.
 
5
According to the methodology presented at (Eijffinger and Geraats 2006), at the beginning of 2011 NBP transparency accounted for 12.5, CNB—12 and NBH—11.5. Five years later it was 13 for Poland, 14 for Czechia and 13.5 for Hungary.
 
6
Actually, prior to the latest economic crisis most of the central banks implemented flexible inflation targeting as well. Nowadays the central banks explain it more explicitly. Moreover, main focus on growth is justified with low inflation figures.
 
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Metadaten
Titel
Is Monetary Policy Really Forward-Looking? The Case of the Czech Republic, Poland and Hungary
verfasst von
Magdalena Szyszko
Copyright-Jahr
2017
Buch
Finance in Central and Southeastern Europe

Print ISBN: 978-3-319-64661-9

Electronic ISBN: 978-3-319-64662-6

Copyright-Jahr: 2017

DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-64662-6_1