Is there a resource constraint related to lithium ion batteries in cars?

The concept of electro mobility is gaining importance and has become more dynamic in recent years, particularly in developed economies. Besides a significant reduction of mobility-related CO₂ emissions, electro mobility is also expected to minimize the current dependence on oil, while maximizing energy conversion efficiency. However, the associated shift in resource requirements towards so-called strategic metals gives reason to suspect that trade-offs could threaten the desired merits of e-mobility with regard to sustainability. This study aims to give a more comprehensive understanding of the challenges—including the issue of uncertainties—which the broad implementation of e-mobility could place on resource availability and especially on a sustainable management of special metals for the high voltage traction batteries forming the heart of the electric powertrain.

Future metal flows for three possible cathode materials containing the special metals lithium and cobalt are estimated in this paper by means of a Material Flow Analysis. Using two scenarios (dominant and pluralistic) projecting the annual demand for electric vehicles until 2050 and the free software STAN in order to perform the calculation steps to build up the model for the analysis, the MFA considers the resource input requirements based on annual vehicle registrations and the consequent energy requirements.

The results indicate continuously rising lithium requirements with a wide variation in absolute terms depending on the scenario, which can be considered symptomatic for the uncertainty regarding the development of e-mobility. In the case of cobalt, the projected demand trajectories differ even more drastically between the two scenarios. In comparison to lithium though, for both scenarios cobalt requirements in absolute terms are much less than lithium requirements. With a view to currently known reserves, the cumulative demand for battery technology projected in the dominant scenario will consume 74–248 % (for two different cases) of the lithium reserves and 50 % of the cobalt reserves by 2050.