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2019 | OriginalPaper | Buchkapitel

19. Is There Evidence of the Trade-Off in Output and Inflation Volatilities in South Africa?

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Abstract

Evidence shows there is trade-off between output and inflation volatilities. The volatilities of inflation and the output were minimised in the inflation-targeting period. Evidence reveals that periods when the macroeconomic performance was superior coincided with the periods of minimal volatilities in both the inflation rates and the output gap.

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Fußnoten
1
Taylor (1979), Chatterjee (2002), Olson et al. (2012), Ndou et al. (2013), and Ndou and Gumata (2017).
 
2
Moreover, theoretically the optimal point on the output-inflation efficiency frontier can only be achieved when a central banker has the independence to set policy without political backlash. Hence, discretionary policymaking translates to the central banker being able to choose the appropriate inflation variability aversion parameter to solve the minimisation problem and make independent policy decisions with a positive influence on a country’s stability and growth.
 
3
The two-year correlations approach is consistent with monetary policy being implemented in a forward looking way, such that the interest rates affect the economy in 18–24 months.
 
Literatur
Zurück zum Zitat King, M. (2013). Monetary policy: Many targets, many instruments. Where do we stand? Remarks at the IMF Conference on ‘Rethinking Macro Policy II: First Steps and Early Lessons’, Washington, DC. King, M. (2013). Monetary policy: Many targets, many instruments. Where do we stand? Remarks at the IMF Conference on ‘Rethinking Macro Policy II: First Steps and Early Lessons’, Washington, DC.
Zurück zum Zitat Ndou, E., & Gumata, N. (2017). Inflation dynamics in South Africa: The role of thresholds exchange rate pass-through and inflation expectations on policy trade-offs. Cham: Palgrave Macmillan.CrossRef Ndou, E., & Gumata, N. (2017). Inflation dynamics in South Africa: The role of thresholds exchange rate pass-through and inflation expectations on policy trade-offs. Cham: Palgrave Macmillan.CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Taylor, J. B. (1979). Estimation and control of a macroeconomic model with rational expectations. Econometrica, 47(5), 1267–1286.CrossRef Taylor, J. B. (1979). Estimation and control of a macroeconomic model with rational expectations. Econometrica, 47(5), 1267–1286.CrossRef
Metadaten
Titel
Is There Evidence of the Trade-Off in Output and Inflation Volatilities in South Africa?
verfasst von
Eliphas Ndou
Thabo Mokoena
Copyright-Jahr
2019
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-19803-9_19