Kinetic Modeling of Local Epidemic Spread and Its Simulation

The local epidemic spread in physical space is modeled using the kinetic equation. In particular, the infection occurs via the binary interaction between the uninfected and infected individuals. Then, the local epidemic spread can be modeled on the basis of the stochastic Boltzmann type equation. In this paper, the normalized virus titer inside the infected human body is defined as the function of the elapsed time, which is measured from the infection time. Consequently, the probability of the infection at the binary human interaction increases, as the normalized virus titer inside the human body increases, whereas the normalized virus titer inside the infected human body decreases, after the normalized virus titer reaches to its maximum value, namely, unity, in the characteristic time. Numerical results indicate that the propagation speed of the boundary between the infected and uninfected domains depends on such a characteristic time, strongly, when the Knudsen number and temperature are fixed. Such a dependency of the propagation speed of the boundary between the infected and uninfected domains on the characteristic time can be described by the Fisher–Kolmogorov–Petrovsky–Piscounov equation which is introduced from the stochastic Boltzmann type equation. Finally, we consider three types of the human behavior as plausible actions to the local epidemic spread.