Abstract
Various approaches exist by which the response of a number of experts (or “judges”) may be combined in order to attempt to achieve assessment superior to that which might be attained by merely accepting an individual recommendation. Such approaches have been classified, according to Ferrell (1985), into those of “mathematical,” “behavioral,” and “mixed” type. Briefly, “mathematical” approaches entail the statistical aggregation of a number of judges into a single estimate, while “behavioral” approaches allow the full interaction of group members until some form of consensus is achieved, and “mixed” type involves components of both these approaches.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Preview
Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.
References
Armstrong, J. S. (1986). Research on forecasting: A quarter-century review, 1960–1984. Interfaces, 16(11), 89–109.
Ashton, A. H. (1982). An empirical study of budget-related predictions of corporate executives. Journal of Accounting Research, 20(2), 440–449.
Ashton, A. H., & Ashton, R. H. (1985). Aggregating subjective forecasts: Some empirical results. Management Science, 31, 1499–1508.
Ashton, R. H. (1986). Combining the judgments of experts: How many and which ones? Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 38, 405–414.
Best, R. J. (1974). An experiment in Delphi estimation in marketing decision making. Journal of Marketing Research, 11, 448–452.
Bender, A. D., Strack, A. E., Ebright, G. W., & von Haunalter, G. (1969). Delphi study examines developments in medicine. Futures, 1, 289–303.
Brockhoff, K. (1975). The performance of forecasting groups in computer dialogue and face to face discussion. In H. Linstone & M. Turoff (Eds.), The Delphi Method: Techniques and applications. London: Addison-Wesley.
Bunn, D. (1989). Forecasting with more than one model. Journal of Forecasting, 8(3), 161–166.
Clemen, R. T. (1989). Combining forecasts: A review and annotated bibliography. International Journal of Forecasting, 5, 559–583.
Dalkey, N. C., & Brown, B. (1971). Comparison of group judgment techniques with short-range predictions and almanac questions. The RAND Corporation, R-678-ARPA.
Dalkey, N. C., Brown, B., & Cochran, S. W. (1970). The Delphi Method III: Use of self-ratings to improve group estimates. Technological Forecasting, 1, 283–291.
Dalkey, N. C., & Helmer, O. (1963). An experimental application of the Delphi Method to the use of experts. Management Science, 9, 458–467.
Dawes, R. (1988). Rational choice in an uncertain world. San Diego: Harcourt Brace, Jovanovich.
Pawes, R. M., & Corrigan, B. (1974). Linear models in decision making. Psychological Bulletin, 81, 95–106.
DeGroot, M. H. (1974). Reaching a consensus. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 69, 118–121.
Delbecq, A. L., Van de Ven, A. H., & Gustafson, D. H. (1975). Group techniques for program planning. Glenview, 111.: Scott Foresman.
Deutsch, M., & Gerard, H. B. (1955). A study of normative and informational social influences upon individual judgment. Journal of Abnormal and Social Psychology, 51, 629–636.
Eils, L. C., & John, R. S. (1980). A criterion validation of multiattribute utility analysis and of group communication strategy. Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 25, 268–288.
Einhorn, H. J. (1974). Expert judgment: some necessary conditions and an example. Journal of Applied Psychology, 59 (5), 562–571.
Einhorn, H. J., & Hogarth, R. M. (1975). Unit weighting schemes for decision making. Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 13, 171–192.
Einhorn, H. J., Hogarth, R. M., & Klempner, E. (1977). Quality of group judgment. Psychological Bulletin, 84, 158–172.
Ferrell, W. R. (1985). Combining individual judgments. In G. Wright (Ed.), Behavioral decision making. New York: Plenum.
Fischer, G. W. (1981). When oracles fail—A comparison of four procedures for aggregating subjective probability forecasts. Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 28, 96–110.
Flores, B. E., & White, E. M. (1989). Subjective vs objective combining of forecasts: An experiment. Journal of Forecasting, 8, 331–341.
Fraser, C., & Foster, D. (1984). Social groups, nonsense groups and group polarization. In H. Tajfel (Ed), Group Processes, New York: Academic Press.
Granger, C. W. J., & Newbold, P. (1975). Economic forecasting: The atheist’s viewpoint. In Renton, G. A. (Ed.), Modelling the economy. London: Heineman.
Gustafson, D. H., Shukla, R. K., Delbecq, A., & Walster, G. W. (1973). A comparison study of differences in subjective likelihood estimates made by individuals, interacting groups, Delphi groups and nominal groups. Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 9, 280–291.
Hackman, J. R., & Morris, C. G. (1975). Group tasks, group interaction process and group performance effectiveness: A review and proposed integration. Advances in Experimental Social Psychology, 8, 45–99.
Hall, J., & Watson, W. H. (1971). The effects of a normative intervention on group decision-making performance. Human Relations, 23, 299–317.
Hastie, R. (1986). Experimental evidence on group accuracy. In B. Grafman & G. Owen (Eds.), Decision research (Vol. 2), Greenwich, CT: JAI Press.
Hill, G. W. (1982). Group versus individual performance: Are N+l heads better than one? Psychological Bulletin, 91(3), 517–539.
Hill, K. Q., & Fowles, J. (1975). The methodological worth of the Delphi forecasting technique. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 7, 179–192.
Hoffman, L. R. (1965). Group problem solving. In L. Berkowitz (Ed.), Advances in experimental social psychology (Vol. 2). New York: Academic Press.
Hogarth, R. M. (1978). A note on aggregating opinions. Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 21, 40–46.
Hogarth, R. M., & Makridakis, S. (1981). Forecasting and planning: An evaluation. Management Science, 27, 115–138.
Janis, I. (1972). Victims of groupthink, Boston: Houghton Mifflin.
Jenkins, G. M. (1974). Discussion of a paper by Newbold and Granger. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society A, 137, 148–150.
Jolson, M. A., & Rossow, G. (1971). The Delphi process in marketing decision making. Journal of Marketing Research, 8, 443–448.
Kleinmuntz, B. (1989). Why we still use our heads instead of formulas: Towards an integrative approach. Psychological Bulletin, in press.
Larreche, J. C., & Moinpour, R. (1983). Managerial judgment in marketing: The concept of expertise. Journal of Marketing Research, 20, 110–121.
Libby, R., & Blashfield, R. K. (1978). Performance of a compolite as a function of the number of judges. Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 21, 121–129.
Lichtenstein, S., Fischhoff, B., & Phillips, L. D. (1982). Calibration of probabilities: The state of the art to 1980. In Kahneman, D., Slovic, P., & Tversky, A. (Eds.), Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases, New York: Cambridge University Press.
Linstone, H. A. (1978). The Delphi Technique. In R. B. Fowles (Ed.), Handbook of futures research, Westport, CT: Greenwood Press.
Linstone, H., & Turoff, M. (1975). The Delphi Method: Techniques and applications, London: Addison-Wesley.
Lock, A. (1987). Integrating group judgments in subjective forecasts. In G. Wright & P. Ayton (Eds.), Judgmental forecasting, Chichester: Wiley.
Lorge, I., Fox, D., Davitz, J., & Brenner, M. (1958). A survey of studies contrasting the quality of group performance and individual performance. Psychological Bulletin, 55, 337–372.
McKinnon, W. J. (1966). Development of the SPAN technique for making decisions in human groups. American Behavioral Scientist, 9, 9–13.
Martino, J. (1983). Technological forecasting for decision-makers (2nd ed.). New York: Elsevier.
Nisbett, R., & Ross, R. L. (1980). Human inference: Strategies and shortcomings of social judgment. Englewood Cliffs, N.J.: Prentice-Hall.
Northcroft, M. A., & Neale, G. B. (1987). Experts, amateurs and real-estate: An anchoring and adjust perspective in property pricing decisions. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 39, 84–97.
Parente, F. J., & Anderson-Parente, J. K. (1987). Delphi inquiry systems. In G. Wright & P. Ayton (Eds.), Judgmental forecasting, Chichester: Wiley.
Riggs, W. E. (1983). The Delphi Method: An experimental evaluation. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 23, 89–94.
Rohrbaugh, J. (1979). Improving the quality of group judgment: Social judgment analysis and the Delphi technique. Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 24, 73–92.
Rowse, G. L., Gustafson, D. H., & Ludke, R. L. (1974). Comparison of rules of aggregating subjective likelihood ratios. Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 12, 274–285.
Salancik, J. R., Wenger, W., & Heifer, E. (1971). The construction of delphi event statements. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 3, 65–73.
Seaver, D. A. (1979). Assessing probability with multiple individuals, Unpublished doctoral dissertation, University of Southern California, Los Angeles.
Sniezek, J. A., & Henry, R. A. (1989). Accuracy and confidence in group judgment. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 43, 1–28.
Steiner, I. D. (1972). Group process and productivity. New York: Academic Press.
Tuckman, J., & Lorge, I. (1962). Individual ability as a determinant of group superiority. Human Relations, 15, 45–51.
Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1974). Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases. Science, 185, 1124–1131.
Uecker, W. L. (1982). The quality of group performance in simplified information evaluation. Journal of Accounting Research, 20, 388–402.
Vande Ven, A. H., & Delbecq, A. L. (1971). Nominal versus interacting group processes for committee decision making effectiveness. Academic Management Journal, 14, 203–213.
Winkler, R. L. (1971). Probablistic prediction: Some experimental results. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 66, 675–685.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 1992 Plenum Press, New York
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Rowe, G. (1992). Perspectives on Expertise in the Aggregation of Judgments. In: Wright, G., Bolger, F. (eds) Expertise and Decision Support. Springer, Boston, MA. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-0-585-34290-0_8
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-0-585-34290-0_8
Publisher Name: Springer, Boston, MA
Print ISBN: 978-0-306-43862-2
Online ISBN: 978-0-585-34290-0
eBook Packages: Springer Book Archive