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Estimating the likelihood of an unpopular verdict in the electoral college

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Abstract

We use historical data to estimate the probability that a presidential candidate could win the popular vote and subsequently lose in the electoral college (a divided verdict). We replicate the model constructed by Merrill (1987b), and improve its robustness by replacing the normal distribution with the beta distribution, and by extending the historical time period to 1880–1984. The changes indicate greater inefficiency for the Democratic party, which was more likely to have unnecessarily large majorities in particular (Southern) states. We revise the model further to include the changes over time in electoral size and in voting patterns among the states. This dynamic model indicates that recent party realignments have decreased the probability of divided verdicts in moderately close elections.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Political Science, University of Missouri-Columbia, 113 Professional Building, 65211, Columbia, MO

    William J. Ball & David A. Leuthold

Authors
  1. William J. Ball
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  2. David A. Leuthold
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Additional information

We wish to express our appreciation to Thad Brown, Allen Russell, and Eric Anderson for their aid in the research design and comments on earlier drafts of the manuscript.

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Ball, W.J., Leuthold, D.A. Estimating the likelihood of an unpopular verdict in the electoral college. Public Choice 70, 215–224 (1991). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00124483

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00124483

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