Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Unemployment and the homicide rate: A paradox resolved?

  • Published:
Social Indicators Research Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

The heretofore perplexing relationship between the unemployment and homicide rates is reevaluated through a dynamic, macro social indicator model of the postwar United States. Whereas prior research has failed to demonstrate consistently an empirical connection between economic conditions and crime rates, it is shown here that when attention is given to both the level of unemployment and recent changes in unemployment, the relationship between the unemployment rate and the homicide rate becomes more intelligible. The level of unemployment is negatively related to the homicide rate while annual changes in unemployment are positively related to the homicide rate. These paradoxical effects of unemployment remain even after controlling for other theoretically-relevant variables. Interpretation of the results revolves around the dichotomy of motivation and opportunity as components of human behavior.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Similar content being viewed by others

Bibliography

  • BeckerG. S.: 1968, ‘Crime and punishment: An economic approach’, Journal of Poli-Economy 76, pp. 169–217.

    Google Scholar 

  • BerkR. A., K. J.Lenihan, and P. H.Rossi: 1980, ‘Crime and poverty: Some experimental evidence from ex-offenders’, American Sociological Review 45, pp. 766–786.

    Google Scholar 

  • BongerW.: 1916, Criminality and Economic Conditions (Little, Brown, Boston).

    Google Scholar 

  • BrennerM. H.: 1975, ‘Trends in alcohol consumption and associated illnesses’, American Journal of Public Health 65, pp. 1279–1292.

    Google Scholar 

  • BrennerM. H.: 1976, Estimating the Social Costs of National Economic Policy: Implications for Mental and Physical Health, and Criminal Aggression (U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C.).

    Google Scholar 

  • BrennerM. H.: 1978, ‘Impact of economic indicators on crime indexes’ in Unemployment and Crime, Hearings before the subcommittee on crime of the Committee on the Judiciary, House of Representatives #47 (U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C.).

    Google Scholar 

  • CantorD. and L. E.Cohen: 1980, ‘Comparing measures of homicide trends: Methodological and substantive differences in the vital statistics and uniform crime report time series (1933–1975)’, Social Science Research 9, pp. 121–145.

    Google Scholar 

  • Cantor, D. and K. C. Land: 1983, ‘Unemployment and crime rates in the Post-World War II United States: A theoretical and empirical analysis’, unpublished manuscript, Working Paper No. 5.004, University of Texas Population Research Center.

  • ClowardR. and L.Ohlin: 1960, Delinquency and Opportunity (Free Press, New York).

    Google Scholar 

  • CohenA. K.: 1955, Delinquent Boys (Free Press, Glencoe).

    Google Scholar 

  • CohenL. E. and M.Felson: 1979a, ‘On estimating the costs of national economic policy: A critical examination of the brenner study’, Social Indicators Research 6, pp. 251–259.

    Google Scholar 

  • CohenL. E. and M.Felson: 1979b, ‘Social change and crime rate trends: A routine activities approach’, American Sociological Review 44, pp. 588–608.

    Google Scholar 

  • CohenL. E., M.Felson, and K. C.Land: 1980, ‘Property crime rates in the United States: A macrodynamic analysis, 1947–1977; with ex ante forecasts for the mid-1980s’, American Journal of Sociology 86, pp. 90–118.

    Google Scholar 

  • DaviesJ. C.: 1962, ‘Toward a theory of revolution’, American Sociological Review 62, pp. 5–19.

    Google Scholar 

  • F.B.I.: various years, Uniform Crime Reports (U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C.).

  • Felson, M., L. E. Cohen, and K. C. Land: 1978, Forecasting Models for Index Crime Rates, Unpublished Grant Application, National Institute of Mental Health.

  • GrahamF. P.: 1969, ‘A contemporary history of American crime’, in H. D.Graham and T. R.Gurr (eds.), Violence in America (Signet, New York), pp. 460–478.

    Google Scholar 

  • HabibaghiH. and J. L.Pratschke: 1972, ‘A comparison of the power of the Von Neumann ratio, Durbin-Watson and Geary tests’, Review of Economics and Statistics 54, pp. 179–185.

    Google Scholar 

  • HarriesK. D.: 1974, The Geography of Crime and Justice (McGraw-Hill, New York).

    Google Scholar 

  • HenryA. F. and J. F.ShortJr.: 1954, Suicide and Homicide (Free Press, New York).

    Google Scholar 

  • HindelangM. J.: 1974, ‘The uniform crime reports revisited’, Journal of Criminal Justice 2, pp. 1–17.

    Google Scholar 

  • KleckG.: 1979, ‘Capital punishment, gun ownership, and homicide’, American Journal of Sociology 84, pp. 882–910.

    Google Scholar 

  • LandK. C. and M.Felson: 1976, ‘A general framework for building dynamic macrosocial indicator models including an analysis of changes in crime rates and police expenditures’, American Journal of Sociology 82, pp. 565–604.

    Google Scholar 

  • LiebhafskyE. E., J. E.Gruschke, and W. L.McKee: 1980, ‘Value judgments inherent in criticisms of the CPS measurement of unemployment’, Social Science Quarterly 61, pp. 237–252.

    Google Scholar 

  • MayhewB. H. and R. L.Levinger: 1976, ‘Size and the density of interaction in human aggregates’, American Journal of Sociology 82, pp. 86–110.

    Google Scholar 

  • MertonR. K.: 1938, ‘Social structure and anomie’, American Sociological Review 3, pp. 672–682.

    Google Scholar 

  • Messner, S. F. and K. Tardiff: 1984, ‘The social ecology of urban homicide: An application of the ‘routine activities' approach’, Paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the American Society of Criminology, Cincinnati, OH.

  • MillerW. B.: 1958, ‘Lower class culture as a generating milieu of gang delinquency’, Journal of Social Issues 14, pp. 5–19.

    Google Scholar 

  • NettlerG.: 1978, Explaining Crime, second edition (McGraw-Hill, New York).

    Google Scholar 

  • NewtonG. D. and F.Zimring: 1970, Firearms and Violence in American Life (U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C.).

    Google Scholar 

  • ParkerR. N. and M. D.Smith: 1979, ‘Deterrence, poverty and type of homicide’, American Journal of Sociology 85, pp. 614–624.

    Google Scholar 

  • QuinneyR.: 1965, ‘Suicide, homicide, and economic development’, Social Forces 43, pp. 401–406.

    Google Scholar 

  • RecklessW. C.: 1926, ‘The distribution of commercialized vice in the city: A sociological analysis’, in E. W.Burgess (ed.), The Urban Community (University of Chicago Press, Chicago), pp. 192–205.

    Google Scholar 

  • ReedP.: 1976, Homicide in Canada: A Statistical Synopsis (Statistics Canada, Ottawa).

    Google Scholar 

  • ShawC. R. and H. D.McKay: 1929, Delinquent Areas (University of Chicago Press, Chicago).

    Google Scholar 

  • SmithM. D. and R. N.Parker: 1980, ‘Type of homicide and variation in regional rates’, Social Forces 59, pp. 136–147.

    Google Scholar 

  • SpectorP. E.: 1975, ‘Population density and unemployment: The effects on the incidence of violent crime in the American City’, Criminology 12, pp. 399–401.

    Google Scholar 

  • StrumpelB.: 1976, ‘Economic life-styles, values, and subjective welfare’, in BurkhardStrumpel (ed.), Economic Means for Human Needs: Social Indicators of Well-Being and Discontent (Survey Research Center, Insitute for Social Research, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor), pp. 19–65.

    Google Scholar 

  • SzalaiA.: 1972, The Use of Time (Mouton, The Hague).

    Google Scholar 

  • ThomasD. S.: 1927, Social Aspects of the Business Cycle (Gordon and Breach, New York).

    Google Scholar 

  • ThrasherF. M.: 1927, The Gang (University of Chicago Press, Chicago).

    Google Scholar 

  • U.S. Bureau of the Census: 1975, Historical Statistics of the United States, Colonial Times to the 1970 (U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C.).

    Google Scholar 

  • U.S. Bureau of the Census: 1980, Current Population Reports, Series P-60, No. 123, ‘Money Income in 1978 of Families and Persons in the United States’, (U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C.).

    Google Scholar 

  • U.S. Department of Commerce: various years, Statistical Abstracts of the United States (U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C.).

  • U.S. Department of Health, Education and Welfare, National Center for Health Statistics: various years, Annual Vital Health Statistics Report (U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C.).

  • VidgerhousG.: 1978, ‘Cyclical variations of monthly and yearly homicide rates in the United States and their relationship to changes in the unemployment rate’, in C. F.Wellford (ed.), Quantitative Studies in Criminology, (Sage, Beverly Hills, CA), pp. 100–120.

    Google Scholar 

  • WellfordC. F.: 1973, ‘Age composition and the increase in recorded crime’, Criminology 11, pp. 61–70.

    Google Scholar 

  • WolfgangM. E.: 1957, ‘Victim precipitated criminal homicide’, Journal of Criminal Law, Criminology and Police Science 48, pp. 1–11.

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Sociology Department, Indiana University, 47401, Bloomington, IN, USA

    Scott J. South & Lawrence E. Cohen

Authors
  1. Scott J. South
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Lawrence E. Cohen
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

South, S.J., Cohen, L.E. Unemployment and the homicide rate: A paradox resolved?. Soc Indic Res 17, 325–343 (1985). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00290320

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00290320

Keywords

Search

Navigation