Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

Temporal and spatial evolution patterns of drought in China over the past 500 years

  • Original Paper
  • Published:
Arabian Journal of Geosciences Aims and scope Submit manuscript

A Correction to this article was published on 23 November 2021

This article has been updated

Abstract

Drought features prominently among natural disasters in Chinese history. Analysing the laws that govern the spatial and temporal evolution of drought could support decision-making for drought prevention and control. However, few studies have investigated the long-term evolution rules of drought events on different spatial and temporal scales. In this paper, the spatio-temporal change patterns of drought in China were analysed with geostatistical methods based on the 1470–2000a drought datasets in China, and then the possible future drought trend was predicted. Results showed that (1) the drought risk in the northern region was the highest during the past 500 years. And the drought intensity index showed an overall increasing trend with a detail pattern of weakening->strengthening-> weakening-> strengthening; (2) the drought condition in the north was severe than that in the south, but the drought trend in the south was significantly aggravated. (3) The drought gravity centres were mainly distributed in the north, but they showed a tendency to move southward. (4) From 1470 to 2000, the study area showed a significant drought enhancement, which was predicted to show an increasing trend of drought after 2000.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7
Fig. 8
Fig. 9

Similar content being viewed by others

Data availability

The data that support the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author, Guo B, upon reasonable request. And the dataset is available at “https://pan.baidu.com/s/1iq-KE-WxRNudlIM76dxnLg”.

Change history

References

  • Bai QS, Yan PC, Cai DH, Jin HM, Feng GL, Zhang TJ (2019) Inter- decadal change characteristics of different grades drought in northwest China in recent 56 years. J Arid Meteorol 37(05):722–728. https://doi.org/10.11755/j.issn.1006-7639(2019)-05-0722

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bai XY, Shen W, Xu XQ, Peng W (2020) Applicability of long-term satellite-based precipitation products for drought indices considering global warming. J Environ Manag 255:109846. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2019.109846

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bonaccorso B, Bordi I, Cancelliere A, Rossi G, Sutera A (2003) Spatial variability of drought: an analysis of the SPI in Sicily. Water Resour Manag 17(4):273–296. https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1024716530289

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chen B, Zhang XX, Hua K, Xu K (2013) Application of temperature vegetation drought index (TVDI) in grassland drought monitoring. Arid Land Geogr 36(05):930–937. https://doi.org/10.13826/j.cnki.cn65-1103/x.2013.05.010

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chen ST, Guo B, Zhang R, Zang WQ, Wei CX, Wu HW, Yang X, Zhen XY, Li X, Zhang DF, Han BM, Zhang HL (2021) Quantitatively determine the dominant driving factors of the spatial–temporal changes of vegetation NPP in the Hengduan Mountain area during 2000-2015. J Mt Sci 18(2):427–445. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11629-020-6404-9

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Garcia PM, Nicolas AL, Velazquez MP (2017) Combined use of relative drought indices to analyze climate change impact on meteorological and hydrological droughts in a Mediterranean basin. J Hydrol 554:292–305. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2017.09.028

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Greene C (2018) Broadening understandings of drought –the climate vulnerability of farmworkers and rural communities in California (USA). Environ Sci Policy 89:283–291. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2018.08.002

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Guo B, Wen Y (2020) An optimal monitoring model of desertification in Naiman Banner based on feature space utilizing Landsat8 OLI image. IEEE Access 8:4761–4768. https://doi.org/10.1109/ACCESS.2019.2962909

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Guo B, Tao HP, Jiang L, Kong B, Liu BT, Shi Z, Song CF (2013) Research on dynamic monitoring of drought and the impact on vegetation in the Brahmaputra river basin based on MODIS. Resour Environ Yangtze Basin 22(06):817–824

    Google Scholar 

  • Guo B, Zang WQ, Luo W (2020b) Spatial-temporal shifts of ecological vulnerability of karst mountain ecosystem-impacts of global change and anthropogenic interference. Sci Total Environ 74:140256. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.140256

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Guo B, Zang WQ, Luo W, Wen Y, Yang F, Han BM, Fan YW, Chen X, Qi Z, Wang Z, Chen ST, Yang X (2020c) Detection model of soil salinization information in the Yellow River delta based on feature space models with typical surface parameters derived from Landsat8 OLI image. Geomat Nat Haz Risk 11(1):288–300. https://doi.org/10.1080/19475705.2020.1721573

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Guo B, Zang WQ, Yang F, Han BM, Chen ST, Liu Y, Yang X, He TL, Chen X, Liu CT, Gong R (2020d) Spatial and temporal change patterns of net primary productivity and its response to climate change in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau of China from 2000 to 2015. J Arid Land 12(1):1–17. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40333-019-0070-1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Guo B, Zang WQ, Yang X, Huang XZ, Zhang R, Wu HW, Yang LA, Wang Z, Sun GQ, Zhang Y (2020e) Improved evaluation method of the soil wind erosion intensity based on the cloud–AHP model under the stress of global climate change. Sci Total Environ 746:141271

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hu S, Mo XG, Lin ZH (2015) Temporal and spatial variation trend of drought in northern China under future climate scenarios. Arid Land Geogr 38(02):239–248

    Google Scholar 

  • Kim JS, Jain S, Lee JH, Chen H, Park SY (2019) Quantitative vulnerability assessment of water quality to extreme drought in a changing climate. Ecol Indic 103:688–697. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2019.04.052

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Li WJ (2015) Study on temporal and spatial characteristics and evolution law of historical drought disasters. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences

  • Li DK, Ma TT (2004) Analysis of hydrological series change characteristics based on Kendall and R/S method. Sichuan Water Conserv 41(02):81–82

    Google Scholar 

  • Liu XY (2018) Analysis of spatial and temporal variation characteristics of drought in China in the past 100 years based on SPEI. J Water Resour Archit Eng 16(05):228–232

    Google Scholar 

  • Liu XY, Li DL, Wang JS (2012) Spatiotemporal characteristics of drought over China during 1961-2009. J Desert Res 32(02):473–483

    Google Scholar 

  • Michael BR, Lance ML (2015) Uniqueness and causes of the California drought. Procedia Comput Sci 61:428–435. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.procs.2015.09.181

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mullick MRA, Nur RM, Alam MJ, Islam KMA (2019) Observed trends in temperature and rainfall in Bangladesh using pre-whitening approach. Glob Planet Chang 172:104–113. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2018.10.001

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Patel NR, Chopra P, Dadhwal VK (2007) Analyzing spatial patterns of meteorological drought using standardized precipitation index. Meteorol Appl 14(4):29–336. https://doi.org/10.1002/met.33

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ren GY, Guo J, Xu MZ, Chu ZY, Zou XK, Li QX, Liu XN (2005) Climate changes of China’s mainland over the past half century. Acta Meteorol Sin 06:942–956

    Google Scholar 

  • Sam AS, Padmaja SS, Kächele H, Kumar R, Müller K (2020) Climate change, drought and rural communities: understanding people’s perceptions and adaptations in rural eastern India. Int J Disaster Risk Res 44:101436. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2019.101436

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sergio MVS, Steven MQ, Marina PG, Yuan SS, Fernando DC (2020) A review of environmental droughts: increased risk under global warming? Earth-Sci Rev 201:102953. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2019.102953

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shi WY (2011) Research on flood and drought disasters in Chaohu basin since 600 years. Shanghai Normal University

  • Shi K (2019) Analysis of spatiotemporal variation and climate driven causes of drought in Northeast China. Dalian University of technology

  • Sönmez FK, Kömüscü A, Erkan A (2005) An analysis of spatial and temporal dimension of drought vulnerability in Turkey using the standardized precipitation index. Nat Hazards 35(2):243–264. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-004-5704-7

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Stewart IT, Rogers J, Graham A (2020) Water security under severe drought and climate change: disparate impacts of the recent severe drought on environmental flows and water supplies in Central California. J Hydrol X 7:100054. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.hydroa.2020.100054

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sun L, Wu Q, Pei ZY, Pan JW (2010) Relationship between temperature vegetation drought index (TVDI) and multiple factors. Geog Geo-Inf Sci 26(02):31–34

    Google Scholar 

  • Wang L, Liu DD, Li TY, Wang JS, Li LY (2015) Precipitation trend analysis of Beijiang River basin based on multivariate M-K test. J Chem Hydrol 35(04):85–90

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Xu K, Yang D, Yang H (2015) Spatio-temporal variation of drought in China during 1961-2012: A climatic perspective. J Hydrol 526(3):253–264

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yang XB, Qin QM, Yao YJ, Zhao SH (2011) Application and comparison of PDI and MPDI in drought monitoring in Inner Mongolia. Geomat Inform Sci Wuhan Univ 36(02):195–198. https://doi.org/10.13203/j.whugis2011.02.012

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhang DE, Liu CZ (1993) Supplement to the atlas of drought and flood distribution in China in the past 500 years (1980-1992). Meteorology 19(11):41–45

    Google Scholar 

  • Zhang DE, Li XQ, Liang YY (2003) The sequel of “yearly charts of dryness/wetness in China for the last 500-year period (1993–2000 AD)”. J Appl Meteorol Sci 14(3):379–388

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhang XY, Li JP, Qin QM, Han YJ, Zhang XY, Wang LX, Guan JD (2009) Comparison and application of several drought monitoring models in Ningxia, China. Trans CSAE 25(08):18–23

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

This work was supported by the open fund of the Key Laboratory of National Geographic Census and Monitoring, MNR (grant no. 2020NGCM02); the open research fund of the Key Laboratory of Digital Earth Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences (grant no. 2019LDE006); the open fund of Key Laboratory of Urban Land Resources Monitoring and Simulation, Ministry of Natural Resources (grant no. KF-2020-05-001); the open fund of the Key Laboratory of Land Use, Ministry of Natural Resources (grant no.20201511835); the open fund of the Key Laboratory for Digital Land and Resources of Jiangxi Province, East China University of Technology (grant no. DLLJ202002); the open foundation of MOE Key Laboratory of Western China’s Environmental Systems, Lanzhou University and the fundamental research funds for the central universities (grant no. lzujbky-2020-kb01); the University-Industry Collaborative Education Program (grant no. 201902208005); the open fund of the Key Laboratory of Meteorology and Ecological Environment of Hebei Province (grant no. Z202001H); the open fund of the Key Laboratory of Geomatics and Digital Technology of Shandong Province; and the open fund of the Key Laboratory of Geomatics Technology and Application Key Laboratory of Qinghai Province (grant no. QHDX-2019-04).

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. School of Civil Architectural Engineering, Shandong University of Technology, Zibo, 255000, Shandong, China

    Cuixia Wei, Bing Guo, Yuefeng Lu, Dafu Zhang, Hongwei Wu, Shuting Chen, Xiao Yang & Hailing Zhang

  2. State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, China

    Bing Guo, Fei Yang & Yuefeng Lu

  3. Key Laboratory of Urban Land Resources Monitoring and Simulation, Ministry of Natural Resources, Shenzhen, 518000, China

    Bing Guo

  4. Key Laboratory of National Geographic Census and Monitoring, Ministry of Natural Resources, Wuhan, 430072, China

    Bing Guo

  5. Key Laboratory of Land use, MNR, China Land Survey and Planning Institute, Beijing, 100035, China

    Bing Guo & Chao Meng

  6. Geomatics Technology and Application Key Laboratory of Qinghai Province, Xining, 810001, China

    Bing Guo

  7. Aerospace Information Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, China

    Bing Guo, Wenqian Zang & Xiangzhi Huang

  8. Key Laboratory of Meteorology and Ecological Environment of Hebei Province, Shijiazhuang, 050021, Hebei, China

    Bing Guo & Xiaoyan Zhen

  9. Key Laboratory of Digital Earth Science, Institute of Remote Sensing and Digital Earth, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, China

    Bing Guo

  10. International School, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Beijing, 100876, China

    Haorun Xue

  11. Land Satellite Remote Sensing Application Center, Ministry of Natural Resources, Beijing, 100048, China

    Rui Zhang

Authors
  1. Cuixia Wei
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Bing Guo
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Wenqian Zang
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Fei Yang
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  5. Yuefeng Lu
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  6. Dafu Zhang
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  7. Hongwei Wu
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  8. Xiaoyan Zhen
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  9. Haorun Xue
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  10. Chao Meng
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  11. Shuting Chen
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  12. Xiao Yang
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  13. Hailing Zhang
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  14. Xiangzhi Huang
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  15. Rui Zhang
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding authors

Correspondence to Bing Guo or Wenqian Zang.

Ethics declarations

Conflict of interest

The authors declare no competing interests.

Additional information

Responsible Editor: Amjad Kallel

The original online version of this article was revised: In this article the affiliation details for authors were incorrectly given as “Cuixia Wei2, Fei Yang2, Dafu Zhang2, Hongwei Wu1, Shuting Chen1, Hailing Zhang1” but should have been “Cuixia Wei1, Fei Yang2, Dafu Zhang1, Hongwei Wu1, Shuting Chen1, Hailing Zhang1”.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Wei, C., Guo, B., Zang, W. et al. Temporal and spatial evolution patterns of drought in China over the past 500 years. Arab J Geosci 14, 776 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-021-07075-6

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-021-07075-6

Keywords

Search

Navigation