A predictive modeling approach to assessing the groundwater pollution susceptibility of the Paluxy Aquifer, Central Texas, using a Geographic Information System

Abstract

The Paluxy aquifer in north-central Texas is composed primarily of Lower Cretaceous clastics. This aquifer provides water for both domestic and agricultural purposes in the region. The study area for this investigation incorporates the outcrop and recharge areas, as well as the confined and unconfined portions of the aquifer. The purpose of this investigation is to develop a predictive modeling approach for evaluating the susceptibility of groundwater in the Paluxy aquifer to contamination, and then compare this susceptibility evaluation to water-chemistry data collected from wells completed within the aquifer. Using such an approach allows one to investigate the potential for groundwater contamination on a regional, rather than site-specific scale. Based on data from variables such as land use/land cover, soil permeability, depth to water, aquifer hydraulic conductivity and topography, subjective numerical weightings have been assigned according to each variables' relative importance in groundwater pollution susceptibility. The weights for each variable comprise a Geographic Information System (GIS) map layer. These map layers are combined to formulate the final pollution susceptibility map. Using this method of investigation, the pollution susceptibility map classifies 32% of the study area as having low pollution susceptibility, 41% as having moderate pollution susceptibility, 25% as having high pollution susceptibility, and 2% as having very high pollution susceptibility. When comparing these modeling results with water-chemistry data from wells within the Paluxy aquifer, the four wells with the highest concentration of nitrate contamination are all found within regions of very high pollution potential. This confirms the accuracy and usefulness of the predictive modeling approach for assessing aquifer pollution susceptibility.