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Application of downscaled precipitation for hydrological climate-change impact assessment in the upper Ping River Basin of Thailand

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Abstract

This paper assesses the impacts of climate change on water resources in the upper Ping River Basin of Thailand. A rainfall-runoff model is used to estimate future runoff based on the bias corrected and downscaled ECHAM4/OPYC general circulation model (GCM) precipitation scenarios for three future 5-year periods; the 2023–2027 (2025s), the 2048–2052 (2050s) and 2093–2097 (2095s). Bias-correction and spatial disaggregation techniques are applied to improve the characteristics of raw ECHAM4/OPYC precipitation. Results of future simulations suggest a decrease of 13–19 % in annual streamflow compared to the base period (1998–2002). Results also indicate that there will be a shift in seasonal streamflow pattern. Peak flows in future periods will occur in October–November rather than September as observed in the base period. There will be a significant increase in the streamflow in April with overall decrease in streamflow during the rainy season (May–October) and an increase during the dry season (November–April) for all future time periods considered in the study.

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Acknowledgments

The authors would like to thank Max-Planck-Institut fuer Meteorologie, and the World Data Center for Climate (WDCC) for providing ECHAM4/OPYC climate model datasets.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Environmental Science, Central University of Rajasthan, Ajmer, India

    Devesh Sharma

  2. Water Engineering and Management, Asian Institute of Technology, Khlong Luang, Thailand

    Mukand S. Babel

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  1. Devesh Sharma
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  2. Mukand S. Babel
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Correspondence to Devesh Sharma.

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Sharma, D., Babel, M.S. Application of downscaled precipitation for hydrological climate-change impact assessment in the upper Ping River Basin of Thailand. Clim Dyn 41, 2589–2602 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-1788-7

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-1788-7

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