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Quantitative assessment of the impact of climate variability and human activities on runoff changes for the upper reaches of Weihe River

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Abstract

In the wake of global and regional climate change and heightened human activities, runoff from some rivers in the world, especially in the arid and semi-arid regions, has significantly decreased. To reveal the varying characteristics leading to the change in runoff, detecting the influencing factors has been important in recent scientific discussions for water resources management in drainage basins. In this paper, an investigation into attributing the runoff response to climate change and human activities were conducted in two catchments (Wushan and Shetang), situated in the upper reaches of Weihe River in China. Prior to the identification of the factors that influenced runoff changes, the Mann–Kendall test was adopted to identify the trends in hydro-climate series. Also, change-points in the annual runoff were detected through Pettitt’s test and the precipitation–runoff double cumulative curve method. It is found that both catchments presented significant negative trend in annual runoff and the detected change-point in runoff occurs in 1993. Hence, the pre-change period and post-change period are defined before and after 1993, respectively. Then, runoff response to climate change and human activities was quantitatively evaluated on the basis of hydrologic sensitivity analysis and hydrologic model simulation. They provided similar estimates of the percentage change in mean annual runoff for the post-change period over the considered catchments. It is found that the decline in annual runoff over both catchments can be mainly attributed to the human activities, the reduction percentages due to human activities range from 59 to 77 %. The results of this study can provide a reference for the development, utilization and management of the regional water resources and ecological environment protection.

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Acknowledgments

This study was supported by the China Scholarship Council National Foundation for Studying Abroad, National Natural Science Foundation of China (Nos. 41130639, 51179045) and the Research and Innovation Program for Graduate of Universities in Jiangsu Province China (No. CXZZ12_0241).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. College of Hydrology and Water Resource, Hohai University, 1 Xikang Road, Nanjing, 210098, Jiangsu, People’s Republic of China

    Yuan Guo, Zhijia Li, Mark Amo-Boateng & Pengnian Huang

  2. College of Hydrology and Meteorology, Nanking Institute of Meteorology, Nanjing, 210044, People’s Republic of China

    Peng Deng

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  1. Yuan Guo
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  2. Zhijia Li
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  3. Mark Amo-Boateng
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  4. Peng Deng
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  5. Pengnian Huang
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Correspondence to Yuan Guo.

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Guo, Y., Li, Z., Amo-Boateng, M. et al. Quantitative assessment of the impact of climate variability and human activities on runoff changes for the upper reaches of Weihe River. Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess 28, 333–346 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-013-0752-8

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