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Rainfall forecasting skill of GFS model at T1534 and T574 resolution over India during the monsoon season

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Abstract

The rainfall forecast of global forecasting system (GFS) model running at the India Meteorological Department (IMD), i.e., GFS T574 (25 km) and GFS T1534 (12.5 km) is verified at its natural resolution. A verification study is conducted for the rainfall forecast over Indian window during the summer monsoon season (June–September) 2016. Regional verification of rainfall forecast was also carried out over five homogeneous regions of India, i.e., north India, west coast of India, northeast India, central India and peninsular India. The skill of the model forecast is also evaluated for yes/no, categorical and few heavy rainfall cases over India. Results show that both T1534 and T574 models are able to provide more realistic spatial distribution of seasonal mean rainfall over India. This study also shows that both the model forecasts are skillful in capturing the 24 h accumulated rainfall over climatologically heavy rainfall regions, but the magnitude and location fluctuated. The rainfall forecast for different rainfall categories in terms of different statistical skill scores, i.e., ratio score, HK, bias, hit rate and HKQ showed a relatively high skill for T1534 compared to T574 over most parts of the country from the day 1 to day 5 forecasts. It is also found from this study that the skill in predicting day 1 to day 3 forecasts of both the models was found to be good and usable for all parts of the country except for high terrain regions in India. The results documented here are expected to be useful to the operational forecasters in day-to-day weather forecasting over Indian monsoon regions.

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Acknowledgements

Authors are grateful to Director General of Meteorology, India Meteorological Department for all supports to complete this research work. Authors also like to thank NWP division IMD for making model and observational data available. Authors acknowledge the availability of GFS T1534 model forecast data from IITM, Pune. Authors are very much thankful to the anonymous reviewers whose suggestions helped to improve this manuscript.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. India Meteorological Department, New Delhi, 110003, India

    Ch. Sridevi, K. K. Singh, V. R. Durai & Ashok Kumar

  2. Department of Meteorology and Oceanography, Andhra University, Visakhapatnam, 530003, India

    P. Suneetha

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  1. Ch. Sridevi
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  2. K. K. Singh
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  3. P. Suneetha
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  4. V. R. Durai
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  5. Ashok Kumar
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Correspondence to Ch. Sridevi.

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Sridevi, C., Singh, K.K., Suneetha, P. et al. Rainfall forecasting skill of GFS model at T1534 and T574 resolution over India during the monsoon season. Meteorol Atmos Phys 132, 35–52 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-019-00672-x

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