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Interannual variability of summer monsoon precipitation over the Indochina Peninsula in association with ENSO

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Abstract

The interannual variability of summer monsoon precipitation (1979–2011) over the Indochina Peninsula (ICP) is characterized using the first empirical orthogonal function of 5-month total precipitation (May to September). The leading mode, with a monopole pattern, accounts for 30.6 % of the total variance. Dynamic composites and linear regression analysis indicate that the rainy season precipitation over the ICP is linked to El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on interannual scales. The preceding winter [D(−1)JF(0)] negative sea surface temperature (SST) over the Niño-3.4 region is predominantly correlated with the rainy season precipitation over the ICP. Notably, the simultaneous correlation between remote SST anomalies in the Niño-3.4 region and the rainy season precipitation over the ICP is weak. The interannual variation of tropical cyclones modulated by ENSO is a significant contributing factor to the rainy season precipitation over the ICP. However, this relationship is not homogeneous over the ICP if ENSO is considered. Before removing the ENSO signal, enhanced precipitation is present over the northeastern part of the ICP and reduced precipitation appears in the western ICP, especially in coastal areas. In contrast, after removing ENSO, only a minor significant positive precipitation anomaly occurs over the northeastern part of the ICP and the negative anomaly appears particularly in the western and eastern coastal regions. The results obtained through the present study are useful for our understanding of circulation mechanisms and provide information for assessing the ability of regional and global climate models in simulating the climate of Southeast Asia.

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Acknowledgments

We are grateful to the two anonymous reviewers for their comments and suggestions, which helped to improve the paper. We thank Frank Sielmann and Andrea Schneidereit for inspiring discussions on TC activity patterns. This study acknowledges the support of the Jiangsu Planned Projects for Postdoctoral Research Funds (1402004B), the National Basic Research “973” Program of China (2012CB955200), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 41405036), a Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI-M) fellowship, and the Priority Academic Program Development of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions (PAPD).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters; KLME, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China

    Fei Ge, Xiefei Zhi & Zaheer Ahmad Babar

  2. Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany

    Fei Ge

  3. Pakistan Meteorological Department, Islamabad, Pakistan

    Zaheer Ahmad Babar

  4. Chongqing Institute of Environmental Science, Chongqing, China

    Weiwei Tang

  5. Chongqing Meteorological Observatory, Chongqing, China

    Peng Chen

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  1. Fei Ge
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  2. Xiefei Zhi
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  3. Zaheer Ahmad Babar
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  4. Weiwei Tang
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  5. Peng Chen
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Correspondence to Fei Ge.

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Ge, F., Zhi, X., Babar, Z.A. et al. Interannual variability of summer monsoon precipitation over the Indochina Peninsula in association with ENSO. Theor Appl Climatol 128, 523–531 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-015-1729-y

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