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Vulnerability and drought risk assessment in Iran based on fuzzy logic and hierarchical analysis

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Abstract

Drought is an intangible natural disaster that can occur in any climate. The present study assessed drought vulnerability in Iran based on fuzzy logic and hierarchical analysis and weighted averaging process. Then, the weight and map of different components and values of ORness, GIS-OWA method were used to prepare a set of drought vulnerability maps based on effective drought index (EDI).

The study of vulnerable classes in terms of adaptation capacity showed that the northern regions of the country enjoy the highest adaptation capacity. The lowest level of compatibility is related to the cities located in the south of Kerman province, west of Khorasan Razavi province, and Ilam province. As far as the exposure component is concerned, vulnerability extends across the country. Also, cities in the provinces of Sistan and Baluchestan and south of Kerman are in a very vulnerable category regarding the sensitivity component. In other words, according to the type of component, different regions of the country are in the vulnerable category. Also, according to all computational ORness results, drought risk in Sistan-Baluchestan, Kerman, and Khuzestan provinces are in very high vulnerability category. Also, the risk of drought in the western and eastern regions of the country is moderate and high, and only are the central and desert regions of the country and parts of the north-western regions of the country in a state of vulnerability and, accordingly, enjoy lower risk than other parts of the country.

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Data availability

The data used in this paper have been prepared by referring to the I.R. of Iran Meteorological Organization (IRIMO) from this link: https://data.irimo.ir/

Code availability

In this paper, custom code in MATLAB software has been used fuzzy logic and hierarchical analysis.

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Acknowledgements

The authors of the present paper are grateful to the I.R. of Iran Meteorological Organization (IRIMO) for providing the data needed to conduct this research.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Assessment the effects, adaptation and crisis management of climate disasters office, I.R. of Iran Meteorological Organization, Tehran, Iran

    Hengameh Shiravand

  2. Department of Physical Geography, Kharazmi University, Tehran, Iran

    Ali Bayat

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  1. Hengameh Shiravand
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  2. Ali Bayat
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Contributions

Author 1: conceived of the presented idea, developed the theory and performed the computations and verified the analytical methods, and supervised the findings of this work. Author 2: encouraged and developed the theoretical formalism. All authors discussed the results and contributed to the final manuscript.

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Correspondence to Hengameh Shiravand.

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Shiravand, H., Bayat, A. Vulnerability and drought risk assessment in Iran based on fuzzy logic and hierarchical analysis. Theor Appl Climatol 151, 1323–1335 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-022-04323-x

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-022-04323-x

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