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Pressure effects on regional mean sea level trends in the German Bight in the twenty-first century

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Abstract

The effect of large-scale atmospheric pressure changes on regional mean sea level projections in the German Bight in the twenty-first century are considered. A developed statistical model is applied to climate model data of sea level pressure for the twenty-first century to assess the potential contribution of large-scale atmospheric changes to future sea level changes in the German Bight. Using 78 experiments, an ensemble mean of 1.4-cm rise in regional mean sea level is estimated until the end of the twenty-first century. Changes are somewhat higher for realisations of the special report on emission scenarios (SRES) A1B and A2, but generally do not exceed a few centimeters. This is considerably smaller than the changes expected from steric and self-gravitational effects. Large-scale changes in sea level pressure are thus not expected to provide a substantial contribution to twenty-first century sea level changes in the German Bight.

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Notes

  1. 20- and 37-year trends were chosen because 20 years is a period often considered in sea level analysis in literature and 37 years is twice the cycle of the nodal tide, which might influence decadal trends in the North Sea.

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Acknowledgments

We acknowledge the modelling groups, the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) and the WCRP’s Working Group on Coupled Modelling (WGCM) for their roles in making available the WCRP CMIP3 multi-model dataset. Support of this dataset is provided by the Office of Science, US. Department of Energy. This work is a contribution to the ‘Helmholtz Climate Initiative REKLIM’ (Regional Climate Change), a joint research project of the Helmholtz Association of German research centres (HGF).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Center for Climate and Resilience Research, University of Concepción, Concepción, Chile

    Frauke Albrecht

  2. Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht, Institute for Coastal Research, Max-Planck-Str. 1, 21502, Geesthacht, Germany

    Ralf Weisse

Authors
  1. Frauke Albrecht
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  2. Ralf Weisse
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Frauke Albrecht.

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Responsible Editor: Birgit Andrea Klein

Appendix: additional plots

Appendix: additional plots

Fig. 5
figure 5

A list of the climate models (right column) of the CMIP3 multi-model dataset that provide projections for the variable air pressure at sea level for the twenty-first century is shown. The coloured lines show the available experiments and time periods

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Fig. 6
figure 6

Results of the statistical model (1) for future RMSL of the German Bight introduced by the large-scale SLP-field over the North Atlantic in the twenty-first century. The results are given for each climate model and the scenarios are given in different colours. The name of the considered climate model is indicated in the headline

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Fig. 7
figure 7

Results of the statistical model (1) for future RMSL of the German Bight introduced by the large-scale SLP-field over the North Atlantic in the twenty-first century. The results are displayed for each climate model and the scenarios are given in different colours. The name of the considered climate model is indicated in the headline

Full size image
Fig. 8
figure 8

Results of the statistical model (1) for future RMSL of the German Bight introduced by the large-scale SLP-field over the North Atlantic in the twenty-first century. The results are displayed for each climate model and the scenarios are given in different colours. The name of the considered climate model is indicated in the headline

Full size image
Fig. 9
figure 9

Results of the statistical model (1) for future RMSL of the German Bight introduced by the large-scale SLP-field over the North Atlantic in the twenty-first century. The results are displayed for each climate model and the scenarios are given in different colours. The name of the considered climate model is indicated in the headline

Full size image

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Albrecht, F., Weisse, R. Pressure effects on regional mean sea level trends in the German Bight in the twenty-first century. Ocean Dynamics 64, 633–642 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10236-014-0708-7

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