Abstract
In order to generate early warning for landslides, it is necessary to address the spatial and temporal aspects of slope failure. The present study deals with the temporal dimension of slope failures taking into account the most widespread and frequent triggering factor, i.e. rainfall, along the National Highway-58 from Rishikesh to Mana in the Garhwal Himalaya, India. Using the post-processed three-hourly rainfall intensity and duration values from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission-based Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis and the time-tagged landslide records along this route, an intensity–duration (I–D)-based threshold has been derived as I = 58.7D −1.12 for the rainfall-triggered landslides. The validation of the I–D threshold has shown 81.6 % accuracy for landslides which occurred in 2005 and 2006. From this result, it can be inferred that landslides in the study area can be initiated by continuous rainfall of over 12 h with about 4-mm/h intensity. Using the mean annual precipitation, a normalized intensity–duration relation of NI = 0.0612D −1.17 has also been derived. In order to account for the influence of the antecedent rainfall in slope failure initiation, the daily, 3-day cumulative, and 15- and 30-day antecedent rainfall values associated with landslides had been subjected to binary logistic regression using landslide as the dichotomous dependent variable. The logistic regression retained the daily, 3-day cumulative and 30-day antecedent rainfall values as significant predictors influencing slope failure. This model has been validated through receiver operating characteristic curve analysis using a set of samples which had not been used in the model building; an accuracy of 95.1 % has been obtained. Cross-validation of I–D-based thresholding and antecedent rainfall-based probability estimation with slope failure initiation shows 81.9 % conformity between the two in correctly predicting slope stability. Using the I–D-based threshold and the antecedent rainfall-based regression model, early warning can be generated for moderate to high landslide-susceptible areas (which can be delineated using spatial integration of preconditioning factors). Temporal predictions where both the methods converge indicate higher chances of slope failures for areas predisposed to instability due to unfavourable geo-environmental and topographic parameters and qualify for enhanced slope failure warning. This method can be verified for further rainfall seasons and can also be refined progressively with finer resolutions (spatial and temporal) of rainfall intensity and multiple rain gauge stations covering a larger spatial extent.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Akcali E, Arman H, Firat S, Saltabas L, Gunduz Z (2010) Rainfall thresholds for the initiation of landslides in Trabzon province of Turkey. Int J Eng Appl Sci 2(4):14–26
Aleotti P (2004) A warning system of rainfall-induced shallow failure. Eng Geol 73:247–265
Aleotti P, Baldelli P, Bellardone G, Quaranta N, Tresso F, Troisi C, Zani A (2002) Soil slips triggered by October 13–16, 2000 flooding event in the Piedmont region (North West Italy): critical analysis of rainfall data. Geologia Tecnica e Ambientale 1:15–25
Andermann C, Bonnet S, Gloaguen R (2011) Evaluation of precipitation data sets along the Himalayan front. Geochem Geophys Geosyst 12(7):Q07023. doi:10.1029/2011GC003513
Atkinson PM, Massari R (1998) Generalised linear modelling of susceptibility to landsliding in the Central Apennines, Italy. Comput Geosci 24(4):373–385
Ayalew L, Yamagishi H (2005) The application of GIS-based logistic regression for landslide susceptibility mapping in the Kakuda-Yahiko Mountains, Central Japan. Geomorphology 65(1):15–31
Bacchini M, Zannoni A (2003) Relations between rainfall and triggering of debris-flow: a case study of Cancia (dolomites, northeastern Italy). Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci 3:71–79
Barros AP, Kim G, Williams E, Nesbitt SW (2004) Probing orographic controls in the Himalayas during the monsoon using satellite imagery. Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci 4(1):29–51
Baum RL, Godt JW (2010) Early warning of rainfall-induced shallow landslides and debris flows in the USA. Landslides 7(3):259–272
Baum RL, Godt JW, Harp EL, McKenna JP, McMullen SR (2005) Early warning of landslides for rail traffic between Seattle and Everett, Washington, USA. In: Hungr O, Fell R, Couture R et al. (eds) Landslide risk management. A.A. Balkema, New York, pp 731–740
Baum RL, Godt JW, Savage WZ (2010) Estimating the timing and location of shallow rainfall-induced landslides using a model for transient, unsaturated infiltration. J Geophys Res 115:3013. doi:10.1029/2009JF001321
Bhatt BC, Nakamura K (2005) Characteristics of monsoon rainfall around the Himalayas revealed by TRMM precipitation radar. Mon Weather Rev 133(1):149–165
Caine N (1980) The rainfall intensity–duration control of shallow landslides and debris flows. Geogr Ann 62A:23–27
Campbell RH (1975) Soil slips, debris flows, and rainstorms in the Santa Monica Mountains and vicinity, Southern California. US Geol Surv Prof Pap 851:1–20
Cannon SH (1988) Regional rainfall-threshold conditions for abundant debris-flow activity. In: Ellen SD, Wieczorek GF (eds) Landslides, floods, and marine effects of the storm of January 3–5, 1982, in the San Francisco Bay region, California. U.S. Geological Survey Professional Paper 1434. USGS, Washington, DC
Capparelli G, Tiranti D (2010) Application of the MoniFLaIR early warning system for rainfall-induced landslides in Piedmont region (Italy). Landslides 7(4):401–410
Capparelli G, Versace P (2011) FLaIR and SUSHI: two mathematical models for early warning of landslides induced by rainfall. Landslides 8(1):67–79
Cepeda J, Höeg K, Nadim F (2010) Landslide-triggering rainfall thresholds: a conceptual framework. Q J Eng Geol Hydrogeol 43(1):69–84
Chiu LS, Liu Z, Vongsaard J, Morain S, Budge A, Neville P, Bales C (2006) Comparison of TRMM and water district rain rates over New Mexico. Adv Atmos Sci 23(1):1–13
Chleborad AF (2003) Preliminary evaluation of a precipitation threshold for anticipating the occurrence of landslides in Seattle, Washington. USGS Open-file report 03-463
Chleborad AF, Baum RL, Godt JW, Powers PS (2008) A prototype system for forecasting landslides in the Seattle, Washington area. Rev Eng Geol 20:103–120
Chokngamwong R, Chiu LS (2008) Thailand daily rainfall and comparison with TRMM products. J Hydrometeorol 9(2):256–266
Chowdhury R, Flentje P (2002) Uncertainties in rainfall-induced landslide hazard. Q J Eng Geol Hydrogeol 35:61–70
Crosta G (1998) Regionalization of rainfall threshold: an aid to landslide hazard evaluation. Environ Geol 35:131–145
Crozier MJ (1986) Landslides: causes, consequences and environment. Croom Helm, London
Crozier MJ (1999) Prediction of rainfall-triggered landslides: a test of the antecedent water status model. Earth Surf Process Landforms 24:825–833
Crozier MJ, Eyles RJ (1980) Assessing the probability of rapid mass movement. In: Crozier MJ, Eyles RJ (eds) Proceedings of 3rd Australia–New Zealand Conference on Geomechanics (Technical Groups), Wellington, New Zealand. NZ Inst. Eng, New Zealand, pp 2.47–2.51
Dahal RK, Hasegawa S (2008) Representative rainfall thresholds for landslides in the Nepal Himalaya. Geomorphology 100:429–443
Dai FC, Lee CF (2002) Landslide characteristics and slope instability modeling using GIS, Lantau Island, Hong Kong. Geomorphology 42(3):213–228
EM-DAT (2012) The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database. http://www.emdat.be. Accessed 10 June 2012
Finlay PJ, Fell R, Maguire PK (1997) The relationship between probability of landslide occurrence and rainfall. Can Geotech J 34:811–824
Floris M, Bozzano F (2008) Evaluation of landslide reactivation: a modified rainfall threshold model based on historical records of rainfall and landslides. Geomorphology 94(1):40–57
Gabet EJ, Burbank DW, Putkonen JK, Pratt-Sitaula BA, Ojha T (2004) Rainfall thresholds for landsliding in the Himalayas of Nepal. Geomorphology 63(3):131–143
Giannecchini R (2006) Relationship between rainfall and shallow landslides in the southern Apuan Alps (Italy). Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci 6:357–364
Glade T, Crozier MJ, Smith P (2000) Applying probability determination to refine landslide-triggering rainfall thresholds using an empirical ‘antecedent daily rainfall model’. Pure Appl Geophys 157:1059–1079
Godt JW, Baum RL, Savage WZ, Salciarini D, Schulz WH, Harp EL (2008) Transient deterministic shallow landslide modeling: requirements for susceptibility and hazard assessments in a GIS framework. Eng Geol 102:214–226
Govi M, Sorzana PF (1980) Landslide susceptibility as a function of critical rainfall amount in Piedmont Basin (north-western Italy). Studia Geomorphologica Carpatho-Balcanica 14:43–61
Griesbach CL (1891) Geology of the Central Himalayas. Memoirs of Geological Survey of India. GSI, Kolkota
Guidicini G, Iwasa OY (1977) Tentative correlation between rainfall and landslides in a humid tropical environment. Bull Int Assoc Eng Geol 16:13–20
Gupta V, Bist KS (2004) The 23 September 2003 Varunavat Parvat landslide in Uttarkashi township, Uttaranchal. Curr Sci 78(11):1600–1605
Guzzetti F, Carrara A, Cardinali M, Reichenbach P (1999) Landslide hazard evaluation: a review of current techniques and their application in a multi-scale study, Central Italy. Geomorphology 31(1):181–216
Guzzetti F, Cardinali M, Reichenbach P, Cipolla F, Sebastiani C, Galli M, Salvati P (2004) Landslides triggered by the 23 November 2000 rainfall event in the Imperia Province, western Liguria, Italy. Eng Geol 73:229–245
Guzzetti F, Peruccacci S, Rossi M, Stark CP (2007) Rainfall thresholds for the initiation of landslides in central and southern Europe. Meteorog Atmos Phys 98:239–267
Guzzetti F, Peruccacci S, Rossi M, Stark CP (2008) The rainfall intensity–duration control of shallow landslides and debris flows: an update. Landslides 5(1):3–17
Hanley JA, McNeil BJ (1982) The meaning and use of the area under a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Radiology 143(1):29–36
Hong Y, Adler RF (2007) Towards an early-warning system for global landslides triggered by rainfall and earthquake. Int J Remote Sens 28(16):3713–3719
Hong Y, Hiura H, Shino K, Sassa K, Suemine A, Fukuoka H, Wang G (2005) The influence of intense rainfall on the activity of large-scale crystalline schist landslides in Shikoku Island, Japan. Landslides 2:97–105
Hua-xi GAO, Kun-long YIN (2007) Discussion on the correlations between landslides and rainfall and threshold for landslide early-warning and prediction. Rock Soil Mech 28(5):1055–1060
Huffman GJ, Bolvin DT, Nelkin EJ, Wolff DB, Adler RF, Guojun G, Hong Y, Bowman KP, Stocker EF (2007) The TRMM Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA): quasi-global, multiyear, combined-sensor precipitation estimates at fine scales. J Hydrometeorol 8(1):38–55
Iverson RM (2000) Landslide triggering by rain infiltration. Water Resour Res 36:1897–1910
Jacob M, Weatherly H (2003) A hydroclimatic threshold for landslide initiation on the North Shore Mountains of Vancouver, British Columbia. Geomorphology 54:137–156
Kamal-Heikman S, Derry LA, Stedinger JR, Duncan CC (2007) A simple predictive tool for lower Brahmaputra River basin monsoon flooding. Earth Interactions 11(21):1–11
Keefer DK, Wilson RC, Mark RK, Brabb EE, Brown WM III, Ellen SD, Harp EL, Wieczorek GF, Alger CS, Zatkin RS (1987) Real-time landslide warning during heavy rainfall. Science 238(13):921–925
Kleinbaum DG (1994) Logistic regression: a self-learning text. Springer, New York
Kumar G (2005) Geology of Uttar Pradesh and Uttaranchal. Geological Society of India, Bangalore
Kundu S (2010) Shallow landslide susceptibility modelling using infinite slope stability method and precipitation thresholding for rainfall triggered landslides: a case study from part of Garhwal Himalaya, India. MTech dissertation, Indian Institute of Remote Sensing, Dehradun, India
Kuthari S (2007) Establishing precipitation thresholds for landslide initiation along with slope characterisation using GIS-based modeling. MSc dissertation, ITC, Enschede, the Netherlands
Liao Z, Hong Y, Wang J, Fukuoka H, Sassa K, Karnawati D, Fathani F (2010) Prototyping an experimental early warning system for rainfall-induced landslides in Indonesia using satellite remote sensing and geospatial datasets. Landslides 7(3):317–324
Maldonado MES (2011) Remote sensing based hydrologic modelling in the Babahoyo River sub-basin for water balance assessment. MSc dissertation, University of Twente, the Netherlands
Mathew J, Jha VK, Rawat GS (2007) Application of binary logistic regression analysis and its validation for landslide susceptibility mapping in part of Garhwal Himalaya, India. Int J Remote Sens 28(10):2257–2275
Mathew J, Jha VK, Rawat GS (2009) Landslide susceptibility zonation mapping and its validation in part of Garhwal Lesser Himalaya, India, using binary logistic regression analysis and receiver operating characteristic curve method. Landslides 6(1):17–26
Montgomery DR, Dietrich WE (1994) A physically based model for the topographic control on shallow landsliding. Water Resour Res 30:1153–1171
Nair S, Srinivasan G, Nemani R (2009) Evaluation of multi-satellite TRMM derived rainfall estimates over a western state of India. J Meteorol Soc Jpn 87(6):927–939
Ohlmacher GC, Davis JC (2003) Using multiple logistic regression and GIS technology to predict landslide hazard in northeast Kansas, USA. Eng Geol 69(3):331–343
Osanai N, Shimizu T, Kuramoto K, Kojima S, Noro T (2010) Japanese early-warning for debris flows and slope failures using rainfall indices with radial basis function network. Landslides 7(3):325–338
Rautela P, Pande RK (2005) Traditional input in disaster management: the case of Amparav, North India. Int J Environ Stud 62(5):505–515
Reichenbach P, Cardinali M, De Vita P, Guzzetti F (1998) Regional hydrological thresholds for landslides and floods in the Tiber River Basin (Central Italy). Environ Geol 35:146–159
Scheel MLM, Rohrer M, Huggel C, Santos Villar D, Silvestre E, Huffman GJ (2011) Evaluation of TRMM Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) performance in the Central Andes region and its dependency on spatial and temporal resolution. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 15:2649–2663
Sengupta A, Gupta S, Anbarasu K (2010) Rainfall thresholds for the initiation of landslide at Lanta Khola in North Sikkim, India. Nat Hazard 52(1):31–42
Sharma S (2012) Catastrophic hydrological event of 18 and 19 September 2010 in Uttarakhand, Indian Central Himalaya—an analysis of rainfall and slope failure. Curr Sci 102(2):327–332
Staley DM, Kean JW, Cannon SH, Schmidt KM, Laber JL (2012) Objective definition of rainfall intensity–duration thresholds for the initiation of post-fire debris flows in southern California. Landslides. doi:10.1007/s10346-012-0341-9
Starkel L (1979) The role of extreme meteorological events in the shaping of mountain relief. Geographica Polonica 41:13–20
Su F, Hong Y, Lettenmaier DP (2008) Evaluation of TRMM multi-satellite precipitation analysis (TMPA) and its utility in hydrologic prediction in the La Plata Basin. J Hydrometeorol 9:622–640
Terlien MTJ (1998) The determination of statistical and deterministic hydrological landslide-triggering thresholds. Environ Geol 35:124–130
Terzaghi K (1950) Mechanism of landslides. In: Paige S (ed) Application of geology to engineering practice. Berkeley Volume, Geological Society of America, pp 83–123
Tsaparas I, Rahardjo H, Toll DG, Leong EC (2002) Controlling parameters for rainfall-induced landslides. Comput Geotech 29:1–27
van Westen CJ, Terlien MTJ (1996) An approach towards deterministic landslide hazard analysis in GIS—a case study from Manizales (Colombia). Earth Surf Process Land 21:853–868
Wieczorek GF (1996) Landslide triggering mechanisms. In: Turner AK, Schuster RL (eds) Landslides: investigation and mitigation. Transportation Research Board, Special Report 247. National Research Council, Washington, pp 76–79
Wilson RC (1997) Operation of a landslide warning system during the California storm sequence of January and February 1993. In: Larson RA, Slosson JE (eds) Reviews in engineering geology. Geological Society of America, Boulder, pp 61–70
Yin Y, Wang H, Gao Y, Li X (2010) Real-time monitoring and early warning of landslides at relocated Wushan Town, the Three Gorges Reservoir, China. Landslides 7(3):339–349
Zweig MH, Campbell G (1993) Receiver operating characteristic plots: a fundamental evaluation tool in clinical medicine. Clin Chem 39(4):561–577
Acknowledgments
The authors are thankful to Dr. V.K. Dadhwal, Director, NRSC, and Dr. V. Raghavaswamy, Deputy Director (RSA), NRSC, for their motivation to carry out this study. JM and SK acknowledge the use of landslide and rainfall data collected from the Border Roads Organization in this study. The district administration of Chamoli has also shared available rainfall data. The rainfall intensity data from TMPA have also been acknowledged. The authors thank the anonymous reviewers for their suggestions and patience in improving the article.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Mathew, J., Babu, D.G., Kundu, S. et al. Integrating intensity–duration-based rainfall threshold and antecedent rainfall-based probability estimate towards generating early warning for rainfall-induced landslides in parts of the Garhwal Himalaya, India. Landslides 11, 575–588 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-013-0408-2
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-013-0408-2