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Can we predict risky human behaviour involving invasive species? A case study of the release of fishes to the wild

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Abstract

Managing risky human behaviour involving invasive species, such as unauthorized stocking or the release of pets to the wild, is difficult because the rationale for risk taking is often unknown. To identify factors that increase the likelihood of risky behaviour, we conducted social surveys and analyzed perceptions about invasive species, natural resource management, social norms, and outreach initiatives for live bait anglers in Ontario, Canada and Michigan, USA. We used classification trees to predict risky behaviour (release of fishes; Ontario, P release  = 0.197, Michigan, P release  = 0.275) based on patterns of variation in social perceptions. Irrespective of release, respondents generally agreed with (and exhibited strong willingness to pay for) prevention management, despite only moderate consensus that natural resource use had been impacted by invasive species. The most parsimonious model to predict release was based on the convenience of releasing fishes and the (mis)perception that released fishes provide an ecological benefit to natural resources, which held for 70.5 % of risk takers (classification rate = 80.6 %, true negative rate = 84.6 %, AUC = 0.81). Therefore, perceptions other than those directly involving invasive species strongly increase the likelihood that an individual will release fishes to the wild. For a subset (29.5 %) of risk takers, release behaviour was unpredictable and lacked obvious rationale; therefore, additional invasive species management efforts remain justified to offset individual actions that may never be understood with certainty and for which targeted social outreach strategies are likely ineffective.

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Acknowledgments

We thank associate editor J.C. Trexler and two anonymous reviewers, whose comments substantially increased the clarity and scope of our manuscript. We also thank the many individuals who were interviewed and responded to our questionnaire. Funding for this study was provided by the Great Lakes Fishery Trust. Additional funding to D.A.R. Drake was provided by a Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council (NSERC) Visiting Fellowship in Canadian Government Laboratories. Funding to N. E. Mandrak was provided by an NSERC Canadian Aquatic Invasive Species Network Grant and the Fisheries and Oceans Canada Aquatic Invasive Species programme.

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  1. D. Andrew R. Drake & Nicholas E. Mandrak

    Present address: Department of Biological Sciences, University of Toronto Scarborough, 1265 Military Trail, Toronto, ON, M1C 1A4, Canada

  2. Rebecca Mercader

    Present address: Kansas Children’s Discovery Center, 4400 SW 10th Ave, Topeka, KS, 66604, USA

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Great Lakes Laboratory for Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences, Fisheries and Oceans Canada, 867 Lakeshore Rd., Burlington, ON, L7R 4A6, Canada

    D. Andrew R. Drake & Nicholas E. Mandrak

  2. Department of Fisheries and Wildlife, Michigan State University, 480 Wilson Rd., 10C Natural Resources Building, East Lansing, MI, 48824-1222, USA

    Rebecca Mercader & Tracy Dobson

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  1. D. Andrew R. Drake
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Correspondence to D. Andrew R. Drake.

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Drake, D.A.R., Mercader, R., Dobson, T. et al. Can we predict risky human behaviour involving invasive species? A case study of the release of fishes to the wild. Biol Invasions 17, 309–326 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10530-014-0729-7

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