Skip to main content
Log in

Multiple thresholds in extremal parameter estimation

  • Published:
Extremes Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Selecting the number of upper order statistics to use in extremal inference or selecting the threshold above which we perform the extremal inference is a common step in applications of extreme value theory. Not only is the selection itself difficult, but the large part of the sample below the threshold may potentially carry useful information. We propose an approach that takes an extremal parameter estimator and modifies it to allow for using multiple thresholds instead of a single one. We apply this approach to the problem of estimating the extremal index and demonstrate its power both on simulated and real data.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Beirlant, J., Goegebeur, Y., Segers, J., Teugels J.: Statistics of extremes: theory and applications, Wiley (2006)

  • Berghaus, Bücher: Weak convergence of a pseudo maximum likelihood estimator for the extremal index, arXiv:1608.01903 (2017)

  • de Haan, L., Ferreira, A.: Extreme Value Theory: an Introduction. Springer, New York (2006)

    Book  MATH  Google Scholar 

  • Drees, H.: Bias correction for estimators of the extremal index, arXiv:1107.0935 (2011)

  • Drees, H., Kaufmann, E.: Selecting the optimal sample fraction in univariate extreme value estimation. Stoch. Process. Appl. 75, 149–172 (1998)

    Article  MathSciNet  MATH  Google Scholar 

  • Dupuis, D.: Exceedances over high thresholds: a guide to threshold selection. Extremes 1, 251–261 (1998)

    Article  MATH  Google Scholar 

  • Embrechts, P., Klüppelberg, C., Mikosch, T.: Modelling extremal events for insurance and finance. Springer, Berlin (1997)

    Book  MATH  Google Scholar 

  • Ferro, C., Segers, J.: Inference for clusters of extreme values. J. R. Stat. Soc. Ser. B Methodol. 65, 545–556 (2003)

    Article  MathSciNet  MATH  Google Scholar 

  • Hsing, T.: Estimating the parameters of rare events. Stoch. Process. Appl. 37, 117–139 (1991)

    Article  MathSciNet  MATH  Google Scholar 

  • Hsing, T.: Extremal index estimation for a weakly dependent stationary sequence. Ann. Stat. 21, 2043–2071 (1993)

    Article  MathSciNet  MATH  Google Scholar 

  • Hsing, T., Hüsler, J., Leadbetter, M.: On the exceedance point process for a stationary sequence. Probab. Theory Relat. Fields 78, 97–112 (1988)

    Article  MathSciNet  MATH  Google Scholar 

  • Laurini, F., Tawn, J.A.: New estimators for the extremal index and other cluster characteristics. Extremes 6, 189–211 (2003)

    Article  MathSciNet  MATH  Google Scholar 

  • Leadbetter, M., Lindgren, G., Rootzén, H.: Extremes and related properties of random sequences and processes. Springer, New York (1983)

    Book  MATH  Google Scholar 

  • Nguyen, T., Samorodnitsky, G.: Tail inference: where does the tail begin? Extremes 15, 437–461 (2012)

    Article  MathSciNet  MATH  Google Scholar 

  • Northrop, P.: An efficient semiparametric maxima estimator of the extremal index. Extremes 18, 585–603 (2015)

    Article  MathSciNet  MATH  Google Scholar 

  • Resnick, S.: Heavy-tail phenomena: probabilistic and statistical modeling. Springer, New York (2007)

    MATH  Google Scholar 

  • Resnick, S., Stărică, C.: Smoothing the Hill estimator. Adv. Appl. Probab. 20, 271–293 (1997)

    Article  MathSciNet  MATH  Google Scholar 

  • Robert, C.: Inference for the limiting cluster size distribution of extreme values. Ann. Stat. 37, 271–310 (2009)

    Article  MathSciNet  MATH  Google Scholar 

  • Robert, C., Segers, J., Ferro, C.: A sliding block estimator for the extremal index. Electron. J. Stat. 3, 993–1020 (2009)

    Article  MathSciNet  MATH  Google Scholar 

  • Smith, R., Weissman, I.: Estimating the extremal index. J. R. Stat. Soc. Ser. B Methodol. 56, 515–528 (1994)

    MathSciNet  MATH  Google Scholar 

  • Sun, J.: Modelling and Inference for Extremal Evnts: Methods and Techniques, Ph.D. thesis, Cornell University, available at http://hdl.handle.net/1813/58726 (2018)

  • Weissman, I., Novak, S.: On blocks and runs estimators of the extremal index. J. Stat. Planning and Inference 66, 281–288 (1998)

    Article  MathSciNet  MATH  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgments

We are enormously grateful to the Associate Editor and three anonymous referees for their comments that helped us to sharpen both the focus and the presentation of the paper.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Julian Sun.

Additional information

This research was partially supported by the ARO grant W911NF-12-10385 at Cornell University.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Sun, J., Samorodnitsky, G. Multiple thresholds in extremal parameter estimation. Extremes 22, 317–341 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10687-018-0337-5

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Revised:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10687-018-0337-5

Keywords

AMS 2000 Subject Classifications

Navigation