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Assessment of hazards and economic losses induced by land subsidence in Tianjin Binhai new area from 2011 to 2020 based on scenario analysis

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Abstract

Land subsidence, a major geological hazard in Tianjin, has caused serious losses. In this research, we established a numerical model to predict potential land subsidence caused by groundwater overdraft in the next decades. The model set three groundwater extraction scenarios, corresponding to (1) current rate, (2) 2 % decrease, and (3) South-to-North Water Transfer Project. Economic losses induced by land subsidence were calculated based on the three land subsidence scenarios. The results showed that with a better management plan (e.g., 2 % decrease in groundwater extraction) or with the success of the water transfer project, the economic loss could be reduced by 36 % or even 74 %. The results of this research provide a scientific basis for the sustainable development planning as well as disaster prevention policy-making of Tianjin Binhai New Area.

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Acknowledgments

This paper was financially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC) (Grant No. 40973078 and No. 41101352), National Program on Key Basic Research Project of China (973 Program) (Grant No. 2010CB434806), Program for New Century Excellent Talents in University of Ministry of Education of China (NCET Program) (Grant No. NCET-10-0954), and Tianjin Municipal Natural Science Foundation (Grant No. 11JCZDJC24500 and No. 10SYSYJC27400).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. College of Urban and Environment Science, Tianjin Normal University, Tianjin, China

    Beibei Hu, Jifa Guo & Weiqing Meng

  2. Tianjin Land Subsidence Control Office, Tianjin, China

    Jun Zhou

  3. Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Science of Ministry of Education, East China Normal University, Shanghai, China

    Shiyuan Xu, Zhenlou Chen, Jun Wang & Dongqi Wang

  4. Department of Geography and Anthropology, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, LA, USA

    Lei Wang

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  1. Beibei Hu
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  2. Jun Zhou
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  3. Shiyuan Xu
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  4. Zhenlou Chen
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  5. Jun Wang
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  6. Dongqi Wang
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  7. Lei Wang
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  8. Jifa Guo
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  9. Weiqing Meng
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Correspondence to Beibei Hu.

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Hu, B., Zhou, J., Xu, S. et al. Assessment of hazards and economic losses induced by land subsidence in Tianjin Binhai new area from 2011 to 2020 based on scenario analysis. Nat Hazards 66, 873–886 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-012-0530-9

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-012-0530-9

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