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Flood frequency analysis based on simulated peak discharges

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Abstract

Flood frequency approaches vary from statistical methods, directly applied on the observed annual maximum flood series, to adopting rainfall–runoff simulation models that transform design rainfalls to flood discharges. Reliance on statistical flood frequency analysis depends on several factors such as the selected probability distribution function, estimation of the function parameters, possible outliers, and length of the observed flood series. Through adopting the simulation approach in this paper, watershed-average rainfalls of various occurrence probabilities were transformed into the corresponding peak discharges using a calibrated hydrological model. A Monte Carlo scheme was employed to consider the uncertainties involved in rainfall spatial patterns and antecedent soil moisture condition (AMC). For any given rainfall depth, realizations of rainfall spatial distribution and AMC conditions were entered as inputs to the model. Then, floods of different return periods were simulated by transforming rainfall to runoff. The approach was applied to Tangrah watershed in northeastern Iran. It was deduced that the spatial rainfall distribution and the AMCs exerted a varying influence on the peak discharge of different return periods. Comparing the results of the simulation approach with those of the statistical frequency analysis revealed that, for a given return period, flood quantiles based on the observed series were greater than the corresponding simulated discharges. It is also worthy to note that existence of outliers and the selection of the statistical distribution function has a major effect in increasing the differences between the results of the two approaches.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran

    Bahram Saghafian

  2. Civil Engineering Department, Shahrood University of Technology, Shahrood, Iran

    Saeed Golian

  3. Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran

    Alireza Ghasemi

Authors
  1. Bahram Saghafian
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  2. Saeed Golian
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  3. Alireza Ghasemi
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Correspondence to Saeed Golian.

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Saghafian, B., Golian, S. & Ghasemi, A. Flood frequency analysis based on simulated peak discharges. Nat Hazards 71, 403–417 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-013-0925-2

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-013-0925-2

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