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Integrating the effects of flood experience on risk perception with responses to changing climate risk

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Abstract

Flood management decision-makers face significant challenges as the climate changes. The perceptions of those affected by floods are critical to the successful implementation of adaptation responses; risk perceptions are affected by how information is communicated and, in turn, perceptions influence expectations on flood risk managers to respond. The links between flood experience, risk perception, and responses by individual households were examined in the Hutt Valley, New Zealand, through a household survey, a workshop and interviews with local government practitioners. Two propositions were tested: (1) that flood experience can influence flood risk perceptions; and (2) that flood experience can stimulate increased risk reduction and adaptation actions where changing climate risk is likely. Perceptions of responsibility for flood management were also examined. The study found that previous flood experience contributes to heightened perception of risk, increased preparedness of households, greater willingness to make household-level changes, greater communication with councils, and more advocacy for spatial planning to complement existing structural protection. Flood-affected households had a stronger preference for central government and communities having flood risk responsibilities, in addition to local government. Those who lacked experience were more likely to be normalised to their prior benign experiences and thus optimistic about flood consequences. These results suggest that harnessing positive aspects of experience and communication of changing risk through engagement strategies could help shift the focus from citizens’ expectation that governments will always provide protection, to a citizen–local government–central government dialogue about the changing character of flood risk and its implications, and build a ‘risk conscious’ society in which ‘sharing and bearing’ is considered desirable.

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Notes

  1. Flood risk managers for the purpose of this paper are local government practitioners except where otherwise stated.

  2. The 2,800 cumec flow is 1.5 times greater than the 100-year flood flow. This is a common approach used in New Zealand’s floodplain management planning to determine higher standard options for investigation (Wellington Regional Council 2001, p. 34).

  3. This is based on the 90th percentile results for all four emission scenarios.

  4. GNS Science is a brand name for the crown research institute and refers to geological and nuclear sciences.

  5. Page numbers in parenthesis in Sect. 4 (refer to Quade and Lawrence 2011).

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Acknowledgments

The research for this paper was funded by the Ministry of Science and Innovation (MSI) under the Community Vulnerability, Resilience, and Adaptation to Climate Change programme led by the New Zealand Climate Change Research Institute at Victoria University of Wellington (VICX805). We thank the local government practitioners and the households surveyed, whose insights made this paper possible. We also thank Andy Reisinger, Amanda Wolf, and Professor Bruce Glavovic who made critical comments on an earlier draft of this paper and two anonymous reviewers for their helpful suggestions.

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  1. New Zealand Climate Change Research Institute, Victoria University of Wellington, PO Box 600, Wellington, 6140, New Zealand

    Judy Lawrence & Dorothee Quade

  2. GNS Science, Lower Hutt, New Zealand

    Julia Becker

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  1. Judy Lawrence
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Correspondence to Judy Lawrence.

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Appendix: Workshop and interview questions

Appendix: Workshop and interview questions

  1. 1.

    Do participants view the current approach to flood risk management as adequate for the current climatic conditions?

  2. 2.

    To what extent can the current approach to flood risk management be up-scaled as and when information from this and further research becomes available about increases in flood risk as a consequence of climate change?

  3. 3.

    What do you think are the thresholds that could require a fundamental change in the current approach to flood risk management? How can they be defined?

  4. 4.

    How do flood risk management decisions in the near term affect the ability of communities to manage a possible increase in flood risk in the future?

  5. 5.

    What frameworks, tools, and regulatory options are currently used by councils to manage uncertainty in flood risk estimates for the present and future?

  6. 6.

    Can those frameworks deal adequately with the range of potential future changes under climate change and balance near-term and long-term benefits, costs, and risks?

  7. 7.

    To what extent are different parts of a community differently vulnerable to flood risk? To what extent are such differential vulnerabilities taken into account in flood risk management? Are differential vulnerabilities likely to increase or decrease in future? Are the tools and regulatory environment in which councils operate able to deal with those differences to ensure sustainable outcomes across different parts of affected communities?

  8. 8.

    Who would benefit most, and who would be most negatively affected, by different approaches to manage the range of potential future increases in flood risk?

  9. 9.

    What are the opportunities and barriers that councils face to implement long-term flood risk management that considers climate change? What part does uncertainty play?

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Lawrence, J., Quade, D. & Becker, J. Integrating the effects of flood experience on risk perception with responses to changing climate risk. Nat Hazards 74, 1773–1794 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-014-1288-z

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